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Met Winter 2021 Second Half Threats


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It’s finally done. 

Ukie is a snowstorm for Thursday 

i wouldn't count on the north trend being over 

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29 minutes ago, Thundersnow3765 said:

36F here, the snowpack is holding strong still.

Same here.  36 degrees.  0.85" of rain, measured 9" of snow OTG for my 7 Am measurement.

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34 and raining at a decent clip in West Milford. 

 

Probably picked up a tenth of an inch of ZR before the convective showers moved through around five or so. 

 

Could have been much worse. 

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36F here, Davis station is on the roof and must have snow in the rain gauge with layer of ice on top so still reading zero.  Once we get in 40's I hope the gauge melts and empties itself.  Icing nightmare avoided though.

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The value of giving yourself wiggle room on perfect prognosis. 

 

Added the actual 1157Z/16 obs that got into the verification for 12z/16.  Note a touch colder in some of sheltered interior very difficult to handle the gradient.  Then the EC op from 00z/16 and GFS/NAM op's from 06z/16 (their 00z versions were similar).  A degree or two can make a large difference and EC was just too warm at 12z in the strong temp gradient except southern Manhattan heliport (elevated) and JFK eastward. 

 

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431A: Wantage NJ Still zr-  31.5. Just 54 meters out in our rural coop at 430A, power outages larger Warren County.  everything solid ice here.  

 

Post event summary: SPC HREF exhibits the continuing cold bias and too robust FRAM ice accumulation output until within 12 hours of the event.Therefore too far southeast. and too heavy not rewarding good verification but ice did occur e PA much of nw NJ and all I84 corridor. I think the GFSv16 did a good job flagging 0.1-0.4" FRAM accretion where it occurred-forecast. 

 

444A: 32.0F  melting should began.   Ice via ASOS radial at 4A looks like an estimated  BDL .04, IJD 0.2,  POU .07, FWN 0.11 which matches my estimate at 740'MSL, MPO near 1/4".  High terrain accrete seemed best.  

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Looking closer, snowpack looks just about the same as it did yesterday. Maybe an inch or so lower but that’s pushing it. Will probably lose a bit today with temperatures in the 40’s. It’s going to turn into concrete tonight for sure. 

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10 minutes ago, wxmd529 said:

Despite fog rain and temps near 50 snowpack hanging tough here

 

My pack no joke looks like it's barely changed from yesterday. I still have a bit of snow on top of some bushes that face north believe it or not. 

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Just now, Sundog said:

 

My pack no joke looks like it's barely changed from yesterday. I still have a bit of snow on top of some bushes that face north believe it or not. 

I wonder why? High water content? Low pack temp?

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