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Met Winter 2021 Second Half Threats


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2 minutes ago, wxmd529 said:

I wonder why? High water content? Low pack temp?

 

Must be the water content. It takes a lot to melt all that water logged snow. 

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It’s finally done. 

Ukie is a snowstorm for Thursday 

i wouldn't count on the north trend being over 

Posted Images

38/38 and .76" in the bucket. Do not know how accurate it is it has some snow in it!!

Snowpack barely moved here. There is snow on top of my North facing and sheltered bushes as well.

 

 

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37 minutes ago, Sundog said:

 

Must be the water content. It takes a lot to melt all that water logged snow. 

Plus the ground is frozen under the pack.  

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Possibly old news: ?

 

Regarding the national unprecedented in recent history event. From the NWS, a quick check of the top 10 national coverage's since 2005 per Greg Carbin WPC. 

---
 
As many have noted on Twitter and elsewhere over the past 24 hours, the CONUS area covered by Winter Storm Warnings is quite remarkable!
 
That was about 1.6 million square kilometers with active warnings or, put another way, the area currently covered by Winter Storm Warnings over the CONUS is larger than the land area of Alaska. That is crazy and puts the events of these days into some amazing perspective.
 
I wrote a script this afternoon to download all the warning shapefiles from the Iowa Mesonet and take a look at the area covered by Winter Storm Warnings (technically Winter Storm Watches that are upgraded to Warnings) from November 2005 through February 14, 2021.
 
For the 2,158 days with Winter Storm Warnings in effect back to November 2005, the average area covered on any day with active Winter Storm Warnings is about 77,000 km^2, or about the size of South Carolina. The median warning area size is about double that, 142,000 km^2, or about the size of Illinois (using land area sizes from here).
 
The standard deviation of the daily warning size distribution is 170,000 km^2. Thus, the current area covered by Winter Storm Warnings is about 8 sigma above the long-term mean area of Winter Storm Warnings covered on any day with active winter warnings over the past 17 years.
 
Here are the top 10 WS Warning Days since Nov. 2005, based on warning areal coverage: 
 
 Date          WSW Area (km^2)
1) Feb. 14, 2021: 1,558,699
2) Feb. 01, 2011: 1,182,685
3) Dec. 29, 2012: 1,099,780
4) Nov. 26, 2019: 1,091,375
5) Dec. 01, 2007: 1,057,336
6) Mar. 02, 2014:   991,728
7) Feb. 20, 2011:   974,886
😎 Dec. 30, 2010:   954,343
9) Dec. 24, 2009:   901,811
10)Dec, 01, 2018:   889,846
 

--
Greg Carbin | Chief, Forecast Operations Branch
NOAA / National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
Weather Prediction Center

 

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Hmm, honestly surprised at the snow pack. I expected it to be all gone, we only had 6 inches otg, but there's still like 4 in areas that haven't been walked on. The 2 inches I had on top of a table is down to 1 inch, I don't think I've ever seen 40s and rain do less damage to snow. 45 degrees right now. We might actually make it to Thursday for a refuel. 

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1 minute ago, Allsnow said:

Man pack here! The ideas of it being wiped out was grossly over exaggerated. 


Just gotta get thru today and hopefully we add onto it on Thursday. 

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Just now, Allsnow said:

Man pack here! The ideas of it being wiped out was grossly over exaggerated. 

Actually made sure I got out right at 7 AM to measure today.

I usually don't.  Usually, if it's near or below freezing, you can measure the night before and get away with it.

But I knew we'd be above freezing and melting all night, so I measured right at 7 today.

Was shocked to see we still have 9 inches on the ground.  

Will probably lose 2 or 3 more today.  But we won't lose much tomorrow.  And then we could easily double (or more) what we have on Thursday.
This pack is going to be around a while.

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1 minute ago, DSnyder said:

Yes, same here.  The sun pops out once in awhile, but clouds winning out for the most part for now.  

I don't see it getting very sunny for an extended period of time. 

We have the storm pulling out, then the actual cold front goes thru later.

That should at least have a line of CU with it.

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37 minutes ago, Snowman11 said:

Snowpack is still alive here in south Brooklyn 

On the sidewalks and in the gutters it's gross. The amount of garbage I had to walk over this morning was insane.

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