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Met Winter 2021 Second Half Threats


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1 minute ago, Rtd208 said:

That looks like a heavy rainmaker. As much as I love winter and snow I am just about ready for some warmer weather and severe weather season.

Yeah it isn't just the GFS showing it.

 

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It’s finally done. 

Ukie is a snowstorm for Thursday 

i wouldn't count on the north trend being over 

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Larry Cosgrove still onboard with potential winter weather threats through mid March then warming up. He is saying a warmer spring and hot summer and it sounds like it will be active as well. We'll see.

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Just now, Rtd208 said:

Larry Cosgrove still onboard with potential winter weather threats through mid March then warming up. He is saying a warmer spring and hot summer and it sounds like it will be active as well. We'll see.

Football and other pushed back  fall sports begin March 8th. Most new turfs lose their warranties if you plow them, so not an option. I would love one more before the 8th but for the sake of my athletes, I hope it’s 70 and sunny from March 8th on. I’m the guy who would usually take snow in July, so hard for me to want this but the kids deserve it 

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4 hours ago, wdrag said:

Have no idea where to put all this:  But here goes...some thoughts. Will add a few graphics. 

 

Monday the 22nd: Questions seem to be centered on bullseye convective snowfall of 3" in 3 hours...it's location, and whether NYC can have enough snow fall between Noon and 3PM to cool the temp enough to stick to the snowboard in CP?  Modeling differs, and snowmelt during the noon hour could preclude measuring CP but an inch is an option even to BWI/PHL/NYC.  Not saying that it will happen in those urban centers, but it's possible and then also capturing the observed snowfall via a report.  Meanwhile, I see this as a shorter term advisory issuance for portions of the hilly terrain subforum, primarily e pA/w NJ (maybe se NYS/Litchfield Hills?) to handle the short term rapidly changing road conditions in a 3-5 hour period of snow there with embedded 1"/hr snowfall rate. Heaviest for now targets somewhere from MD into NJ/e PA.  That may become a short fuse convective snowfall consideration. Isolated 5" possible somewhere e PA/w NJ?  General snowfall amounts se NYS/CT less than w NJ/ePA but still 1 to possibly 3".    (I didn't mention, that a flurry is possible prior to sunrise Monday, but that flurry is not the primary concern). Four graphics added the 00z/21 HPC HREF ensemble, 09z/21 NWS deterministic snowfall, the 09z/21 WPC ensemble chance of 1+" of snow Monday, and 4+" 

 

 

Feb 25-27:  WPC continues dry but as you probably saw, the 06z/21 GFS V15-16 have turned northeast.  This is a complicated situation with other snow/ice options. First, it's not clear to me that something cant happen here late Thursday-Friday (25-26).  That part is associated with a subtle trailing shortwave moving ENE from the Ohio Valley (WAA) behind the initial primary short wave passage of the 26th.  That subtle short wave induces low pressure newd to the Mid Atlantic coast with a possible inverted trough back to the Catskills. What's it mean for NYC?  Possibly a period of snow or sleet? with a better chance of snow or sleet inside of I95.  Does it change to rain in the interior if it does come  north- too early to know. First, I think we need this option to stick, so to speak, and then can venture to discuss this minor or moderate event? Lets give this 24 hour more of cycles and then try to isolate the wintry problem, if it still exists Monday morning.

 

Feb 28-March 2: Model variability. By and large looks too warm for more than 1" of snow/sleet NYC-LI-s of I78, if any at all. Modeling does have an option for heavy qpf, snow/sleet/freezing rain to rain, end as snow especially I84 corridor.  Not saying that will happen, but I think that option is realistic instead of the all warm-wet Great Lakes inside runner scenario. It's complicated. Also, for now no flood threat due to snowmelt/qpf, bug if that warm heavy qpf option comes to pass as the primary reality, then we'll need to discuss.  That flood threat insert for me, has to wait 3 more days before throwing in the towel on my primary concern for wintry elements. Finally, that closed low option continues (06z/21 V15 ballistic, V16 not).  Will monitor successive GEFS 6 hour member cycles as seen on http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/ENSHGTAVGNH_0z/ensloopmref.html

Any questions and I can guide us thru this. Just use your cursor to slide over the hours from L to R and not only monitor the mean, but the spaghetti, which for me is crucial to understanding future model options. Added yesterday CPC D6-10 for consideration of the early March event. 

 

 

 

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EVERYTHING seems to be moving in the right direction more wintry direction for these 3 date groups.  Keep monitoring.

If you have more than a few inches of snow on your roofs, suggest considering SAFE removal...repeat SAFE removal of ice and snow from gutters-downspouts, where it's cost effective.  Leak report ne PA and i suspect more where it's not making news compared to everything else going on. GFSv16 is our friend I think.  

 

 

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13 minutes ago, Rtd208 said:

Larry Cosgrove still onboard with potential winter weather threats through mid March then warming up. He is saying a warmer spring and hot summer and it sounds like it will be active as well. We'll see.

 

I think we will be seeing cold shots, potentially strong, in an otherwise sea of AN temps for most of March. The cold shots should last about a day or two before temps skyrocket to 55-60 in southern areas, and 45-55 northwest of the fall line. With the chance of the usual March snowstorm of course. But other than that I agree that spring and probably summer is warmer than average. 

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3 minutes ago, MJOP8 said:


It does have this tho..

 

 

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It has a little front end there and a little front end potential 3/1.  But no real snow events.

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1 hour ago, Rtd208 said:

That looks like a heavy rainmaker. As much as I love winter and snow I am just about ready for some warmer weather and severe weather season.

Melt the snow first then it's fine.  No one wants floods

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20 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

1-4 from rahway to summit 

 

Screenshot_20210221-123552_Chrome.jpg


What a difference across Union,Middlesex, and Essex counties .

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