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Met Winter 2021 Second Half Threats


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It’s finally done. 

Ukie is a snowstorm for Thursday 

i wouldn't count on the north trend being over 

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WWA for only Warren county in NJ.. Can’t ever remember that before.  Given I am 4 miles from Warren County border and at 700’ I am thinking 2-4, maybe 3-5 here. Surprised they didn’t include southern Sussex in WWA.

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15 minutes ago, Keith O said:

WWA for only Warren county in NJ.. Can’t ever remember that before.  Given I am 4 miles from Warren County border and at 700’ I am thinking 2-4, maybe 3-5 here. Surprised they didn’t include southern Sussex in WWA.

Elevation means a lot with this storm and temps it seems. 

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26 minutes ago, Keith O said:

WWA for only Warren county in NJ.. Can’t ever remember that before.  Given I am 4 miles from Warren County border and at 700’ I am thinking 2-4, maybe 3-5 here. Surprised they didn’t include southern Sussex in WWA.

I still think they should be able to make longer-fused warnings with polygons instead of zones, much like they already do with short-fused warnings.

I think one day they will.

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 I think those NW of the fall line are in for a decent snowfall, rates could be heavy for this one and it will be falling on top of snowpack. You know it's a decent amount of precip coming when HRRR, which usually does not overdo precip, is still showing a relatively widespread 3-4 across NEPA and NNJ, even interior SEPA. image.png.ab834dc9822bfe311060bc5aa344939e.png

For whatever reason ICON is very weak with this one, but I've seen it do this same thing for other storms and the resulting precip is higher than what ICON predicted. RGEM and other Canadian models usually show a bit more snowfall than what actually verifies.  I'll consider the Monday storm a win in my book if I can see some flakes flying at the start and stay cold enough to not melt away all the snow, one more day of snow cover then I'm ready for even an early spring. It's been a great winter tracking with all of you! 

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3 minutes ago, Oglem said:

 I think those NW of the fall line are in for a decent snowfall, rates could be heavy for this one and it will be falling on top of snowpack. You know it's a decent amount of precip coming when HRRR, which usually does not overdo precip, is still showing a relatively widespread 3-4 across NEPA and NNJ, even interior SEPA. image.png.ab834dc9822bfe311060bc5aa344939e.png

For whatever reason ICON is very weak with this one, but I've seen it do this same thing for other storms and the resulting precip is higher than what ICON predicted. RGEM and other Canadian models usually show a bit more snowfall than what actually verifies.  I'll consider the Monday storm a win in my book if I can see some flakes flying at the start and stay cold enough to not melt away all the snow, one more day of snow cover then I'm ready for even an early spring. It's been a great winter tracking with all of you! 


good post. 👍 
bonus points for talking about the fall line :) 

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Over the last 4 cycles, the NAM has gone from 0.0" to 0.1" to 0.7" and now 1.5" for Edison (and similar increases for many along 95) for tomorrow.  It shows the surface temp at 36F at 10 am and then 34F at 1 pm, presumably due to evaporational cooling after the precip starts (with 0 precip falling by 10 am).  So, maybe it cools to 33F (not shown) by 11 am and we get 1.5" of snow in 2 hours, which is certainly a good enough rate to accumulate even at midday in late Feb, especially on the snow.  

 

Have never figured out how to do one of those animations showing multiple model runs of one map - anyone know how to do that on Pivotal?  

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Just now, ru848789 said:

Over the last 4 cycles, the NAM has gone from 0.0" to 0.1" to 0.7" and now 1.5" for Edison (and similar increases for many along 95) for tomorrow.  It shows the surface temp at 36F at 10 am and then 34F at 1 pm, presumably due to evaporational cooling after the precip starts (with 0 precip falling by 10 am).  So, maybe it cools to 33F (not shown) by 11 am and we get 1.5" of snow in 2 hours, which is certainly a good enough rate to accumulate even at midday in late Feb, especially on the snow.  

That is the way I could envision accumulations tomorrow.  We can add to the pack, without needing to shovel.

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2 minutes ago, Analog96 said:

That is the way I could envision accumulations tomorrow.  We can add to the pack, without needing to shovel.

18Z RGEM, strangely enough, shows it at 34F at 10 am in Edison, with no precip having fallen, but has it up to 36F at 1 pm with ~0.2" having fallen and 1.5" snow accumulating by 1 pm - and then another 0.8" accumulating by 4 pm for 2.3" total - I don't see accumulating snow with the surface at 36F, though, between 1 and 4 pm.  

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4 minutes ago, ru848789 said:

18Z RGEM, strangely enough, shows it at 34F at 10 am in Edison, with no precip having fallen, but has it up to 36F at 1 pm with ~0.2" having fallen and 1.5" snow accumulating by 1 pm - and then another 0.8" accumulating by 4 pm for 2.3" total - I don't see accumulating snow with the surface at 36F, though, between 1 and 4 pm.  

Yeah, for me 34 is about the limit for accumulating snow.  It can snow at higher temps, but will not accumulate.

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