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Met Winter 2021 Second Half Threats


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It’s finally done. 

Ukie is a snowstorm for Thursday 

i wouldn't count on the north trend being over 

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10 minutes ago, Peakbagger46 said:

Yeah, it’s been very steady in it’s depiction over the last few days. 

D0A89C9B-F1C5-4909-BB60-8EA0C568A998.png

0D03634F-359F-4180-8DEB-5BF17F4A79C3.png

Absolutely.  Same run over and over.  I will take my 4 inch snow in four hours 

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NAM 3k looks beautiful for Manhattan on West:

nam3km_ref_frzn_neus_fh16-22.gif.d7482a38288e58964f19cbcbdf8adbc2.gif

It's a mostly snow storm for CNJ on North and West, I know there's some rain at the end for CNJ but the best rates are snow in that depiction. Also a good storm for Philly and North MD, lends some credence to RGEM-type solution. To show you how a couple degrees make a huge difference, most areas are just 1-2 degrees colder than they were in the 18z run, but it makes a big difference for CNJ's precip type by giving them a good hour extra of snow and bringing places like Philly into play for a coating to an inch. Snow looks to start in Western NJ and Philly around 3 PM, and absolutely rip up North until 6PM or so (still snowing after that in some places but rates start tapering off). 

 

nam3km_T2m_neus_fh17_trend.gif

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5 minutes ago, deform98 said:

Just add another one to the model consensus.  

I think I agree with you. I’m an amateur with minimal knowledge so I don’t like questioning the NWS but I don’t see why there wouldn’t be a WWA for Passaic, Sussex, Bergen, rockland, Westchester, orange, and Putnam counties. 1-3 inches coming in fast and hard around school dismissal time. Can’t hurt to hoist up a WWA. 

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1 minute ago, Stormlover74 said:

Sussex was added to the wwa

Actually, they also added NW Bucks and NW Montgomery, too, without adding Hunterdon or Morris - this is another one of those cases for split counties, as I'm guessing NW Morris and NW Hunterdon will do as well as NW Bucks and Montco.  

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3 minutes ago, Oglem said:

NAM 3k looks beautiful for Manhattan on West:

nam3km_ref_frzn_neus_fh16-22.gif.d7482a38288e58964f19cbcbdf8adbc2.gif

It's a mostly snow storm for CNJ on North and West, I know there's some rain at the end for CNJ but the best rates are snow in that depiction. Also a good storm for Philly and North MD, lends some credence to RGEM-type solution. To show you how a couple degrees make a huge difference, most areas are just 1-2 degrees colder than they were in the 18z run, but it makes a big difference for CNJ's precip type by giving them a good hour extra of snow and bringing places like Philly into play for a coating to an inch. Snow looks to start in Western NJ and Philly around 3 PM, and absolutely rip up North until 6PM or so (still snowing after that in some places but rates start tapering off). 

 

nam3km_T2m_neus_fh17_trend.gif

Should be earlier than that. 11-12 pm start time

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Just now, Heavy snow said:

I think I agree with you. I’m an amateur with minimal knowledge so I don’t like questioning the NWS but I don’t see why there wouldn’t be a WWA for Passaic, Sussex, Bergen, rockland, Westchester, orange, and Putnam counties. 1-3 inches coming in fast and hard around school dismissal time. Can’t hurt to hoist up a WWA. 

I can’t wait for everyone to be caught off guard.  Usually creates a chaotic situation.  Hope the school kids get home safely.  

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2 minutes ago, Heavy snow said:

I think I agree with you. I’m an amateur with minimal knowledge so I don’t like questioning the NWS but I don’t see why there wouldn’t be a WWA for Passaic, Sussex, Bergen, rockland, Westchester, orange, and Putnam counties. 1-3 inches coming in fast and hard around school dismissal time. Can’t hurt to hoist up a WWA. 

Because of the strict criteria they're forced to adhere to.

But I have no idea why they can't issue an SPS like LWX did.  There is no criteria for SPS.

https://kamala.cod.edu/md/latest.wwus81.KLWX.html

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