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Met Winter 2021 Second Half Threats


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It’s finally done. 

Ukie is a snowstorm for Thursday 

i wouldn't count on the north trend being over 

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3 hours ago, deform98 said:

I know that they use more then just models for their forecast.  It is the reason they went against models for the ice situation, even though models dismissed the ice threat as the event got closer, because they warmed the surface significantly, the nws doubted the cad would leave that quickly.  I get it, they interject their own thoughts. That is what meteorologists do.  I guess my question is, what is advisory criteria? Because they don't even have a weather statement out for a lot of the areas.  

I agree an SPS makes sense, but you had asked about advisories, which have a 3" criterion N of 276/195 and 2" south of there, roughly.  And they added Sussex, NW Bucks and NW Montco to the advisory list.  

 

New_12hour_WWY_Criteria_2015-16.png

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Places like Mahwah, NJ (NW Bergen County) and West Milford, NJ (northern Passaic county) don’t even have a special weather statement.  Going to be some confusion tomorrow, and hopefully no one gets hurt, especially considering the timing of this and schools letting out.  Not everyone is virtual, including my wife’s school in northern Morris County.  
 

Also, looking at some soundings, it does appear like it could be a couple hours packing a little punch / thump.  Rates might be decent for a few hours.  

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1 minute ago, ru848789 said:

I agree an SPS makes sense, but you had asked about advisories, which have a 3" criterion N of 276/195 and 2" south of there, roughly.  And they added Sussex, NW Bucks and NW Montco to the advisory list.  

 

New_12hour_WWY_Criteria_2015-16.png

Do they always adhere to this, I feel like I’ve seen advisories for 2-4”  forecasted.  

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2 minutes ago, deform98 said:

Places like Mahwah, NJ (NW Bergen County) and West Milford, NJ (northern Passaic county) don’t even have a special weather statement.  Going to be some confusion tomorrow, and hopefully no one gets hurt, especially considering the timing of this and schools letting out.  Not everyone is virtual, including my wife’s school in northern Morris County.  
 

Also, looking at some soundings, it does appear like it could be a couple hours packing a little punch / thump.  Rates might be decent for a few hours.  

Most districts do hire private forecasters to help them. I speak about it with my super all the time. He doesn’t even look at the NWS stuff. I forget who he said he uses but I never heard of them. 

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1 minute ago, deform98 said:

Do they always adhere to this, I feel like I’ve seen advisories for 2-4”  forecasted.  

2-4" is essentially 3", so where the criterion is 3" in 12 hours that would normally be an advisory.  There are finer criteria, like 50% or more of the area has to have 90%(?) confidence of reaching the criterion for issuing the advisory (not 100% sure those are right, but it's something like that).  

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11 minutes ago, deform98 said:

Do they always adhere to this, I feel like I’ve seen advisories for 2-4”  forecasted.  

2-4” would be an advisory event, if 3” is the threshold. I have an advisory here in northern Bucks for 2-3”, which is pushing it based on their criteria. My guess is that if overnight guidance holds serve, we’ll wake up to some eastern expansion of advisories. Part of their consideration could be that timing is more in the middle of the day for areas further east, with boundary layer temps warming, and road accumulations will be harder. Mount Holly expressed this thinking in a few of their AFD’s over the last two days.

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11 minutes ago, deform98 said:

Do they always adhere to this, I feel like I’ve seen advisories for 2-4”  forecasted.  

2-4 is an average of 3.

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Just now, Peakbagger46 said:

2-4” would be an advisory event, if 3” is the threshold. I have an advisory here in northern Bucks for 2-3”, which is pushing it based on their criteria. My guess is that if overnight guidance holds serve, we’ll wake up to some eastern expansion of advisories. Part of their consideration could be that timing is more on the middle of the day for areas further east, with boundary layer temps warming, and road accumulations will be harder. Mount Holly expressed this thinking in a few of their AFD’s over the last two days.

They should have the criteria as a guideline, not a strict have-to-follow standard.

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4 hours ago, ru848789 said:

Over the last 4 cycles, the NAM has gone from 0.0" to 0.1" to 0.7" and now 1.5" for Edison (and similar increases for many along 95) for tomorrow.  It shows the surface temp at 36F at 10 am and then 34F at 1 pm, presumably due to evaporational cooling after the precip starts (with 0 precip falling by 10 am).  So, maybe it cools to 33F (not shown) by 11 am and we get 1.5" of snow in 2 hours, which is certainly a good enough rate to accumulate even at midday in late Feb, especially on the snow.  

 

Have never figured out how to do one of those animations showing multiple model runs of one map - anyone know how to do that on Pivotal?  

One more nudge SE tonight on the 0Z NAM - and the surface temps for Edison dropped to 33F from 34F at 1 pm, while the snowfall forecast jumped up to 2.6".  Go NAM.  

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Dad is a principle in western Bergen county and had no idea anything was coming. Figured maybe an inch or so on grass lol. Certainly could be some caught off guard with this one. 

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2 minutes ago, Peakbagger46 said:

2-4” would be an advisory event, if 3” is the threshold. I have an advisory here in northern Bucks for 2-3”, which is pushing it based on their criteria. My guess is that if overnight guidance holds serve, we’ll wake up to some eastern expansion of advisories. Part of their consideration could be that timing is more in the middle of the day for areas further east, with boundary layer temps warming, and road accumulations will be harder. Mount Holly expressed this thinking in a few of their AFD’s over the last two days.

Is road accumulation the basis for their advisories and warnings?  I’ve heard this mentioned a few times now.  

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1 minute ago, Analog96 said:

They should have the criteria as a guideline, not a strict have-to-follow standard.

I fully agree with the idea of a SPS, given the potential for some heavy rates in a short time that could at least temporarily overwhelm roads if they materialize.

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2 minutes ago, MI Storm said:

Dad is a principle in western Bergen county and had no idea anything was coming. Figured maybe an inch or so on grass lol. Certainly could be some caught off guard with this one. 

Where about? 

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1 minute ago, deform98 said:

Is road accumulation the basis for their advisories and warnings?  I’ve heard this mentioned a few times now.  

It should be. The whole reason for a warning or advisory is generally related to travel

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Just now, MI Storm said:

Mahwah area. 

That’s a much more favorable area of Bergen county for snowfall because of elevation.  You are correct, could be surprised there.  

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Just now, deform98 said:

That’s a much more favorable area of Bergen county for snowfall because of elevation.  You are correct, could be surprised there.  

Yup he tells me its not uncommon for him to have a mess up there and wet roads by the time he gets back to Chatham sometime., 

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