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Met Winter 2021 Second Half Threats


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This February it just wants to snow in Eastern PA and NWNJ. Looks like a couple of hours of wet snow overnight for many NW of the urban corridor from PHL to NYC. Dewpoints are quite low, so if precip comes in with decent rates, we could wetbulb pretty efficiently. Doubt much will stick outside of more elevated areas, and it changes over to rain by morning, but if you're up late, you might see some snow tonight in NW areas. 

HRRR 3-km Pennsylvania Simulated Radar.gif

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It’s finally done. 

Ukie is a snowstorm for Thursday 

i wouldn't count on the north trend being over 

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2 hours ago, Analog96 said:

CMC nukes Boston @George

And as @Chris21 said, the CMC and GFS could be from a different year they are so different.

Going to go out on a huge limb and predict that the extreme qpf event depicted on the gfs (and only on the gfs... other models are not even in the same zip code much less ball park) has no legs.

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Wow, out of nowhere HRRR has trended colder/snowier each run, now brings snow into South NJ, North DE, North MD. Looks like a nice coating event for places along and SE of I-95, 1-3 for places NW of I-95. Improving each run, maybe 1-3 could even move solidly into I-95 at this rate.  

hrrr_asnow_neus_fh14_trend.gif.8ae9f1d5609d4c2e6a8c58c55ffd1063.gif

Remember that this is falling at night, so although temps won't be great, I think we can expect whatever falls to stick. Especially if this trend continues. From what I can tell, what's causing this is just slightly colder surface temps, prob 2-3 degrees through most areas. Upper/mid levels are all cold. 

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10 minutes ago, Oglem said:

Wow, out of nowhere HRRR has trended colder/snowier each run, now brings snow into South NJ, North DE, North MD. Looks like a nice coating event for places along and SE of I-95, 1-3 for places NW of I-95. Improving each run, maybe 1-3 could even move solidly into I-95 at this rate.  

hrrr_asnow_neus_fh14_trend.gif.8ae9f1d5609d4c2e6a8c58c55ffd1063.gif

Remember that this is falling at night, so although temps won't be great, I think we can expect whatever falls to stick. Especially if this trend continues. From what I can tell, what's causing this is just slightly colder surface temps, prob 2-3 degrees through most areas. Upper/mid levels are all cold. 

Critical thicknesses remain south of our area...the column is sufficiently cold at least for the onset, with the only real warmth in the boundary layer. Dewpoints are low, so we should be able to wetbulb efficiently for a few hours before the warmth at all levels quickly advance. Personally, I think 1 - 3" might be hard until you get solidly 25 mi NW of I-95, yet snow falling regardless for a time. It might be worthwhile to stay up a bit late tonight to watch it fall because by the time we wake up tomorrow morning it will be washed away with only a little slush remaining for many. Radar looks pretty good too, with many rain, snow, and sleet reports along the I-81 corridor and Virginia 

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6 minutes ago, Nick Psomaras said:

Hard not to be intrigued with these ingredients to cook with...

 

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That beautiful Curly Q, one last time?! Next 72 hours will tell the tale if we dance again

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