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Met Winter 2021 Second Half Threats


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It’s finally done. 

Ukie is a snowstorm for Thursday 

i wouldn't count on the north trend being over 

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20 minutes ago, Snowman11 said:

Surprising since the tellies don't look bad at all


we’ve seen 2 huge shifts this year already so I wouldn’t rule out something popping up out of nowhere. 

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1 hour ago, Snowman11 said:

Surprising since the tellies don't look bad at all

 

I don't think it's surprising. The ingredients are generally there but they have to come together - there are no guarantees and frankly it doesn't work out more than it does. We've been lucky the last month with the strat help being the pot for the soup. Maybe some needle will be threaded the next few weeks but I still think expectations for the coastal plain/Piedmont/95 have to be pretty low. N/W naturally better chance. 

 

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2 hours ago, Snowman11 said:

Surprising since the tellies don't look bad at all

The teleconnection index means nothing for whether or not we get a storm. 

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1 hour ago, DualJet said:

The teleconnection index means nothing for whether or not we get a storm. 


he’s been thinking it has for 15 years, no point in trying to try and change his mind now lol

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4 minutes ago, CooL said:


he’s been thinking it has for 15 years, no point in trying to try and change his mind now lol

It is one main piece 

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6 hours ago, CooL said:

Euro almost pulled off a storm tonight. 160 hours out we can easily see massive changes. Especially with the northern stream 

Euro and Para 

603ce0f8bd70e.png

603ce10ad307d.png

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45 minutes ago, Snowman11 said:

Euro and Para 

603ce0f8bd70e.png

603ce10ad307d.png

That is an interesting look. The telies  are briefly favorable around that time. 

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9 minutes ago, MI Storm said:

That is an interesting look. The telies  are briefly favorable around that time. 

Agree even though some people think the tellies don't mean anything.

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8 minutes ago, Snowman11 said:

 

Wonder if this has a better chance to deliver some goods for our southern posters if it can interact a little more. 

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1 hour ago, Analog96 said:

29.7 here for the month

I had snow cover in the yard the entire month. Dont think that has ever happened before.

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17 minutes ago, user13 said:

I had snow cover in the yard the entire month. Dont think that has ever happened before.

2015

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3 hours ago, Nchaboy said:

Wonder if this has a better chance to deliver some goods for our southern posters if it can interact a little more. 

 

Perhaps if its all southern stream and the ULL over SE Canada isn't too suppressive, a nice little storm can develop down there before being kicked out to sea. 12z GEFS actually has a decent storm signal hundreds of miles off the SE Coast for the first time since yesterday morning.

 

The Euro has been a bit more bullish on this threat the last few model cycles compared to other guidance. I'm interested in seeing its 12z run today.

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3 minutes ago, weatherbruh said:

Running out of time

This is doesn’t look terrible for 144 hrs out, wouldn’t take much to get it closer, just a couple more shifts, definitely enough time for it. 

8C3BDE7C-AE3A-4FEB-B131-5419A4A91071.jpeg

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