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Met Winter 2021 Second Half Threats


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History says NYC sees at least 1” of snow in March and/or April. Not definite but that’s what I’m riding right now. 

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It’s finally done. 

Ukie is a snowstorm for Thursday 

i wouldn't count on the north trend being over 

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3 hours ago, user13 said:

I dont think it was a full calandar month for me.

We had ice chunks floating down the east river and the hudson during Feb 2015.

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4 hours ago, MR FREEZE said:

We had ice chunks floating down the east river and the hudson during Feb 2015.

It's a sight to behold when the Hudson partially freezes over.  Lived on the West side years ago and saw it a few times.  Amazing.  

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For snow lovers, I present the 50/50 from Hell.

 

A week ago I put up 2 periods of interest given the overall pattern during our upcoming blocking episode (what would now be day 1 and day 4). Day one is pretty much dead and day 4 is basically on life support, though I haven't quite given up on it as of yet. 

 

Here is the current look and the future 50/50 that is screwing up what I considered our first potential window. This pv lobe and it's influence is dropping so far south that it is suppressing the flow in the east coast down into the southern states. This is not allowing the SW (short wave) to amplify and gain latitude as it moves eastward.  

 

458279536_currentlook.gif.191e533b89bf5e094a7ecd519faad333.gif

 

Now here is the second window of opportunity, the one I felt held a lot of potential. This is at day 2, which is a good look for possibilities a couple of days down the road. We have the pv lobe now trapped in the 50/50 position underneath the blocking with a strong SW now entering the US on its way eastward. One might look at this setup and think it is time to consider warming up their snow blowers. 

 

 

day2.gif.a074043b78f42c313ac6c79bcc8c52bf.gif

 

But wait, that pv lobe is not yet done with giving snow lovers the big middle finger. In this case we are dealing with too much of a good thing, blocking. The blocking is so strong that we aren't just seeing the 50/50 get trapped, it is actually retrograding back southwestward doing a loop de loop (black line). So once again we are seeing strong suppression in the east as SW #2 is now entering the picture. And the rest is history as I am sure most have seen the results on the models.

 

 

day3.5.gif.c5d32cb048b97fab8e18e0d2dc7a3f3f.gif

 

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1 hour ago, showmethesnow said:

For snow lovers, I present the 50/50 from Hell.

 

A week ago I put up 2 periods of interest given the overall pattern during our upcoming blocking episode (what would now be day 1 and day 4). Day one is pretty much dead and day 4 is basically on life support, though I haven't quite given up on it as of yet. 

 

Here is the current look and the future 50/50 that is screwing up what I considered our first potential window. This pv lobe and it's influence is dropping so far south that it is suppressing the flow in the east coast down into the southern states. This is not allowing the SW (short wave) to amplify and gain latitude as it moves eastward.  

 

458279536_currentlook.gif.191e533b89bf5e094a7ecd519faad333.gif

 

Now here is the second window of opportunity, the one I felt held a lot of potential. This is at day 2, which is a good look for possibilities a couple of days down the road. We have the pv lobe now trapped in the 50/50 position underneath the blocking with a strong SW now entering the US on its way eastward. One might look at this setup and think it is time to consider warming up their snow blowers. 

 

 

day2.gif.a074043b78f42c313ac6c79bcc8c52bf.gif

 

But wait, that pv lobe is not yet done with giving snow lovers the big middle finger. In this case we are dealing with too much of a good thing, blocking. The blocking is so strong that we aren't just seeing the 50/50 get trapped, it is actually retrograding back southeastward doing a loop de loop (black line). So once again we are seeing strong suppression in the east as SW #2 is now entering the picture. And the rest is history as I am sure most have seen the results on the models.

 

 

day3.5.gif.c5d32cb048b97fab8e18e0d2dc7a3f3f.gif

 

I wonder if the lag in the MJO will make the 2nd half of March wintry before Spring kicks in.

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33 minutes ago, Snowman11 said:

I wonder if the lag in the MJO will make the 2nd half of March wintry before Spring kicks in.

Was looking at the end of the extended on all three models (CMC, EURO and GFS) and it looked a little more promising then what I expected to see with such a strong +AO at 500's. Though they all go about it a little differently they all somehow manage to shift the cold onto our side of the globe (didn't look hard but would guess that is probably in response to the shift with the MJO). The Euro actually had a semi-decent look as it may be suggesting another blocking episode and corresponding 50/50. Of course, even if we were to get another favorable period people need to be aware of the climo for their own BYs and consider that for their chances.

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  • 33andrain changed the title to Winter 2021 Second Half Threats

Modeling hope for I80-I78-I84, unrealistic on my part?  This despite 00z/3 outlooked unfavorable AO/NAO/EPO/PNA, but here goes. Suppose it will have to be thread the needle?   500 MB trough is ensembled to return to the central3 by mid month, with a reactivating storm track out of the southern Plains-Ohio Valley.  Modeling is trying to juice up the Tenneseee Valley again for a potentially active period March 14-~ April 5.  This I think is in keeping with some long ranging impressions (not mine) of an active severe weather season this spring.  CFS constantly has been offering snow/ice hopes down here in our forum from mid month onward for a number of cycles, implying high pressure to our north and a storm track trying to move up to and along I80 with a few cutters thrown in.  It's simply too early to end snow season.  Whether any of these from the 14th onward, provide NYC with more than a half inch of snow I don't know but I'm confident the I84 corridor has several more opportunities for meaningful snowfall into the first week of April.  Climo says temps warm and so if it's daytime light snow, probably lots of it melts.   

 

First opportunity  is ~Sunday the 14th.  Confluence between Pacific into southern3 with primary jet near 35-37N,  and the Canadian stream might give us a chance?  Reminder: this is said against the backdrop of currently modeled unfavorable teleconnection indices.  MJO... I don't know what role it will play. 

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2 hours ago, Phillywhiteout said:

That guy would forecast wintry weather in the middle of July! 

I use to watch his videos all the time when I was younger lol

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6 minutes ago, Jake302 said:

 

Dude. That is like the biggest weenie i've seen so far this week

I guess you don't know who this guy is lol

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1 minute ago, Snowman11 said:

I guess you don't know who this guy is lol

When I was working at Accuwx, he would draw maps 10 days from an event.  State College, invariably, was always in the bullseye.

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25 minutes ago, Analog96 said:

When I was working at Accuwx, he would draw maps 10 days from an event.  State College, invariably, was always in the bullseye.

Remember the Big Daddy hat ?

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45 minutes ago, Analog96 said:

When I was working at Accuwx, he would draw maps 10 days from an event.  State College, invariably, was always in the bullseye.

Awful.  Is he still at accuwx?

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  • 33andrain changed the title to Met Winter 2021 Second Half Threats
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