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Met Winter 2021 Second Half Threats


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6 minutes ago, Rtd208 said:

I still think we are in for a very active period beginning early next week. I don't want to speculate on precipitation types but storminess overall and I think the models are starting to latch back on to that idea. 

Yeah there are also a couple cutters modeled after that one.

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It’s finally done. 

Ukie is a snowstorm for Thursday 

i wouldn't count on the north trend being over 

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1 hour ago, Analog96 said:

Don't sleep on Mon-Tue.  The GFS and ECMWF are suppressed.  The GGEM has a pretty good winter storm for many here, and the parallel GFS is in between the two scenarios.

Watch it’s going to happen lol

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55 minutes ago, Winterbird said:

Anyone looking at models ?? Next week?

Everything appears south for Tuesday, but we should at least keep an eye on it until it ejects from the Rockies.

What happens out there ultimately affects what happens here.

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22 minutes ago, Analog96 said:

Everything appears south for Tuesday, but we should at least keep an eye on it until it ejects from the Rockies.

What happens out there ultimately affects what happens here.

I am pretty much in 'wait and see' mode. Was looking over the models this morning and I really am not sure what to expect for next week. All of the models start diverging on how they handle some of the key features (west troughing, NE suppression, east ridging) at 500's by roughly day 4. So the varied looks we are seeing from them by early/mid next week would/could mean significant differences with the common sense weather to expect in the East through that period of time. 

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20 minutes ago, showmethesnow said:

I am pretty much in 'wait and see' mode. Was looking over the models this morning and I really am not sure what to expect for next week. All of the models start diverging on how they handle some of the key features (west troughing, NE suppression, east ridging) at 500's by roughly day 4. So the varied looks we are seeing from them by early/mid next week would/could mean significant differences with the common sense weather to expect in the East through that period of time. 

 

Yes, while there are some differing solutions in the NAO domain, the EPO is certainly causing the greatest fits beyond Sunday. 

global_epo_2021031000.png

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2 minutes ago, fireguy286 said:

 

Yes, while there are some differing solutions in the NAO domain, the EPO is certainly causing the greatest fits beyond Sunday. 

global_epo_2021031000.png

In mid-winter, the EPO is the biggest driver of deep cold into our area.  In March and April, I think the NAO becomes more important.

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17 minutes ago, Analog96 said:

In mid-winter, the EPO is the biggest driver of deep cold into our area.  In March and April, I think the NAO becomes more important.

I also heard that about the NAO.

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12 minutes ago, Analog96 said:

In mid-winter, the EPO is the biggest driver of deep cold into our area.  In March and April, I think the NAO becomes more important.

 

Sure, but that kind of talks past my point. Everything is obviously interconnected. If model camps diverge greatly in one of the domains, so will the downstream forecast simulations - wherever that leads, not tying it to specific outcome. Whether it's PNA, AO etc doesn't matter at that level, but if one is causing fits, it's a good starting point to see where things go off the rails.

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Just now, fireguy286 said:

 

Sure, but that kind of talks past my point. Everything is obviously interconnected. If model camps diverge greatly in one of the domains, so will the downstream forecast simulations - wherever that leads, not tying it to specific outcome. Whether it's PNA, AO etc doesn't matter at that level, but if one is causing fits, it's a good starting point to see where things go off the rails.

Yeah I don't disagree with that.

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8 minutes ago, MJOP8 said:

The NAO/AO drop to near neutral around the 16th. Maybe something pops around then.

3882CB5F-E866-4FF2-96EB-82D407DC06AC.gif

18FD0F5A-9E4B-4A95-BB6A-3EC001D16818.gif

Or when they go back up.

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The UKIE at 144 hours definitely looked interesting. It just kept rolling the cutoff east with another area of strong confluence. The cutoff does not get sheared out.

 

500hv.conus.png.25d3f85dfdb50be8dfb2bf63e61569b3.png

 

850th.conus.png.472f63a7bbd16248f36422a008aba445.png

 

But this is so incredibly different from the GFS at the same time:

 

gfs_z500_vort_us_25.png.4ff1d8fe682925aa09f752b76e32309a.png

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24 minutes ago, MI Storm said:

2nd Half of March does not look warm that's for sure.  

 

Eventually the MJO will be going back towards the warm phases + MJO having less of an effect as we move further into spring, I wouldn't be surprised to see sustained warmth at the end of march through at least the 1st/2nd week of April.

 

EMON_phase_MANOM_51m_small.gif

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1 hour ago, Jake302 said:

 

Eventually the MJO will be going back towards the warm phases + MJO having less of an effect as we move further into spring, I wouldn't be surprised to see sustained warmth at the end of march through at least the 1st/2nd week of April.

 

EMON_phase_MANOM_51m_small.gif

For the record that's two days ago. Currently.

 

Edit: I see you're using the extend bias corrected. I'll take one step at a time. 

5861B37D-D3A0-4A1A-9915-FFA18905BC3A.gif

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ICON and GFS are close for Mon/Tues threat:

image.png.938ed3dbb14a18621ce8f5d7470e8b5f.pngimage.png.27d14c3b38a698b58bb0feae4d8d33e4.png

 

CMC doesn't even have the storm, completely shredded. Something to watch though, and then there's the Wednesday threat, and the possibility of a cold blast in the March 20s timeframe (GFS 00z develops a Miller B around 21/22). I think the LR is still quite uncertain, there's a lot of possibilities on the table. I think there could still be a fairly widespread minor snowfall some time this month, unless everything goes wrong (or right if you're rooting for spring haha). 

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