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Met Winter 2021 Second Half Threats


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It’s finally done. 

Ukie is a snowstorm for Thursday 

i wouldn't count on the north trend being over 

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1 hour ago, Heavy snow said:

Gfs cuts it  Montreal and the cmc has snow in North Carolina. 

 

Take the average and get your shovels ready. 

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34 minutes ago, Analog96 said:

GFS at 18Z is rather different for Thu-Fri and does not show a cutter at all.

I am definitely not expecting snow out of this at least not for the NYC metro but it wouldn't surprise me if it happens. This has the potential to be a substantial storm regardless of precipitation type. I would expect the models to start getting a better handle on things over the next 24-48 hours.

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Live cam from Laramie WY. Snow just beginning there. Looks like they are expecting anywhere from 2-4' of the white stuff. 

 

 

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5 minutes ago, Rtd208 said:

I am definitely not expecting snow out of this at least not for the NYC metro but it wouldn't surprise me if it happens. This has the potential to be a substantial storm regardless of precipitation type. I would expect the models to start getting a better handle on things over the next 24-48 hours.

The cutter didn't make sense with a brief dip of the NAO and AO.

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13 minutes ago, Rtd208 said:

Live cam from Laramie WY. Snow just beginning there. Looks like they are expecting anywhere from 2-4' of the white stuff. 

 

 

One source says their annual average is 70" and another source said 50"

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GFS is very close on the late week storm. Touch warm at the surface but that's a nice track at this juncture. Actually tries to flip the KC area as the system comes across. 

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Now that's what I call a trend:

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_fh114_trend.gif.f7d469879f7d141412234e2f005d6bca.gif

CMC is close as well but in the other direction, actually suppressed with next weekend and jackpots DC:

image.png.a2cf6739474fff158f82dcbd2c0d3eb7.png

 

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GFS, CMC are pretty dry in the long-range, esp if next weekend ends up suppressed (as it is on CMC, GFS, and ICON). This is CMC through Mar 24th:

image.png.ec1bc47ad63627128c35c3e012b1298e.png

GFS is a bit wetter, but has no precip for the entire rest of the month after next weekend. Next weekend might be the last shot at snow for most areas, so hopefully we get that to work somehow. Afterward, seems like ideal weather for large diurnal temp ranges. One thing I have noticed is that the Canadian suite of models picks up on radiational cooling much better than the other models. GFS, NAM, HRRR, all seem to be too warm for nighttime lows on clear, dry, calm nights. This might be slightly overdoing the cold at night but it gives you an idea of the kinds of swings we could see in temps with extended period of dry, clear, non-Southerly flow weather in March. 

gem_T2m_neus_fh174-192.gif.330b2fb2e01aa75fb620855786c6c818.gif

 

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Not sure if I buy these suppressed solutions for the late week storm. I am going to wait another 24-36 hours before I start buying into that. 

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