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Met Winter 2021 Second Half Threats


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It’s finally done. 

Ukie is a snowstorm for Thursday 

i wouldn't count on the north trend being over 

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36 minutes ago, Analog96 said:

It's only an inch or two on the grass that will be gone in a few hours.

Snow is snow

 

Models have more than that in areas

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32 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

namconus_ref_frzn_neus_43.png

It’s a rain to snow event. Hopefully the cold air dives in faster and we see something out of it

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53 minutes ago, dmillz25 said:

It’s a rain to snow event. Hopefully the cold air dives in faster and we see something out of it

Hope for the 18z gfs

 

Low is further south 

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_neus_10.png

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_neus_11.png

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I like what I'm seeing so far on the 00z suite. RGEM would make snow fans in DE and Cape May very happy:

image.png.375b355d729027e8555da25de059287e.png

Essentially it shows an axis of heavy precip midday Friday. Also brings the cold in faster. GFS is also a tick deeper with the trough, better orientation than 18z imo:

image.png.0af3a8aa1bd38d01de68eb363b592e00.png 

NAM 3k shows some signs of the precip axis seen on the RGEM.

image.png.e46432d9f6a554624b249ada62d7838b.png 

Let's see what tomorrow brings.

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Don't get your hopes up for this, but man would this be an epic way to end the winter (Friday storm)

image.png.0993776ff4bd11507d0aecd470edce8e.png

Mid 20s, snow,  in mid March. From WRF-ARW2 model. 

 

All 3 WRFs have significant snow/bring in the cold fast for Friday morning. HRRR is also on board for nice 1-2 inches Friday morning. Globals not so on board, will be interesting to see what they do at 12z however. Overall I like where we stand, especially for those in inland NNJ and New England. Not any worse than at 00z, and one could argue a bit better. 

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1 hour ago, Snowman11 said:

GFS

sn10_acc.us_ne.png

The NAM/GFS still showing a decent amount of QPF with this system on the order of 1.50"-2.00". So we should see some pretty good rains before we possibly see some frozen precipitation at the end.

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9 minutes ago, Rtd208 said:

The NAM/GFS still showing a decent amount of QPF with this system on the order of 1.50"-2.00". So we should see some pretty good rains before we possibly see some frozen precipitation at the end.

Euro is also showing alot of rain

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Disappointing that Central Park will not hit 40 inches for the winter.  I think we missed out on 3 opportunities in January with suppression. 

Not complaining since this was the best winter since 2017-2018.  The last time I seen a foot or more of snow in one storm was in 2016.

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6 minutes ago, Snowman11 said:

Disappointing that Central Park will not hit 40 inches for the winter.  I think we missed out on 3 opportunities in January with suppression. 

Not complaining since this was the best winter since 2017-2018.  The last time I seen a foot or more of snow in one storm was in 2016.

 

Is the snow event gone on the models? Don't they only need like an inch?

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14 minutes ago, Sundog said:

 

Is the snow event gone on the models? Don't they only need like an inch?

Basically it is

 

Mostly rain for our area

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