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Met Winter 2021 Second Half Threats


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I am also not sure if I am buying how dry the GFS and Euro are now for the late week storm. I think that will trend wetter as we move closer. We'll see.

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It’s finally done. 

Ukie is a snowstorm for Thursday 

i wouldn't count on the north trend being over 

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37 minutes ago, Rtd208 said:

Probably GFS BS. While a strong storm is certainly possible those snowfall amounts while not impossible is highly unlikely IMO. Is the GFS the only model showing this?

Yes but not a storm

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GFS brings MJO around into P3 and P4, lots of spread still wrt amplitude:

image.png.6f7fbad89d04777d9cd8bb7cddcebfda.png

P3/4 are cold phases this time of year. RMM plots are supported by the VP 200 plots as well, which also show strong convection in P3 and 4. Plus there are some signs of ridging over the N. pole again on the three ensembles, especially EPS and GEFS, and this has been trending a little better the past few days. Mar 31 GEFS 06z: 

image.png.0fd81cf944172a00ac83792a57a91d4a.png

 

Op runs also attempt to establish some blocking in early April. I'd say for these reasons we should keep an eye on the end of month storm. We're so far out though that the storm itself could vanish on the models, plus climo is against us. 

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  • 33andrain changed the title to Met Winter 2021 Second Half Threats

op GFS says we get a mega block starting around Mar 31 and strengthening into April:

image.png.6041c4c7d143b3373853bf81827ece95.png

Some support from MJO going into P3/4, plus this twitter thread seems to indicate that the high-lat blocking is supported by AAM as well. It's that Atl ridge he is talking about that GFS retrogades into Greenland and then into Hudson Bay. 

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34 minutes ago, Oglem said:

op GFS says we get a mega block starting around Mar 31 and strengthening into April:

image.png.6041c4c7d143b3373853bf81827ece95.png

Some support from MJO going into P3/4, plus this twitter thread seems to indicate that the high-lat blocking is supported by AAM as well. It's that Atl ridge he is talking about that GFS retrogades into Greenland and then into Hudson Bay. 

Here comes that 24-36 hour slow moving 6"+ rain producing 60 mph wind nor'easter.

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4 hours ago, Oglem said:

op GFS says we get a mega block starting around Mar 31 and strengthening into April:

image.png.6041c4c7d143b3373853bf81827ece95.png

Some support from MJO going into P3/4, plus this twitter thread seems to indicate that the high-lat blocking is supported by AAM as well. It's that Atl ridge he is talking about that GFS retrogades into Greenland and then into Hudson Bay. 

 

Ugh here we go again. -NAO just in time to ruin spring and turn it into a crappy 55 and rain every day kind of deal. Please make it go away.

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some la nina Aprils with record cold or snow......

1956.....4" of snow that started as rain on 4/8...

1957.....3" of snow that turns to rain on 4/4...cold weather lasts till 4/15...

1965.....1" of snow 4/2...29 degrees on 4/1...

1971.....up to an inch of snow on 4/6...

1972.....dusting of snow on 4/7...26 degrees on 4/8...

1974.....half inch of snow on 4/10 with a temp of 28...

1975.....cold weather from 4/2-4/14...27 on the 4th and 5th...

1976.....25 degrees on 4/12 with a few snow flakes...

1996.....half inch to 4 " of snow on 4/9-10...

1997.....April fools storm 4/1...28 degrees 4/10...

2000.....1-2" of snow and 30 degrees on 4/9...

2006.....measurable snow on 4/5.....

2018.....6" of snow on 4/2...cold weather lasts till 4/11...

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2 hours ago, uncle w said:

some la nina Aprils with record cold or snow......

1956.....4" of snow that started as rain on 4/8...

1957.....3" of snow that turns to rain on 4/4...cold weather lasts till 4/15...

1965.....1" of snow 4/2...29 degrees on 4/1...

1971.....up to an inch of snow on 4/6...

1972.....dusting of snow on 4/7...26 degrees on 4/8...

1974.....half inch of snow on 4/10 with a temp of 28...

1975.....cold weather from 4/2-4/14...27 on the 4th and 5th...

1976.....25 degrees on 4/12 with a few snow flakes...

1996.....half inch to 4 " of snow on 4/9-10...

1997.....April fools storm 4/1...28 degrees 4/10...

2000.....1-2" of snow and 30 degrees on 4/9...

2006.....measurable snow on 4/5.....

2018.....6" of snow on 4/2...cold weather lasts till 4/11...

What was the enso for the winter of 1981-82?  We all know what happened on April 6th-7th 1982!  About 10 inches of snow in Central Park on ALL surfaces (blacktop) and temperatures in the lower mid 20s throughout.  By the way, there is great footage of that storm of the local newscast on channel 7 eyewitness news that can be found on YouTube with a simple search "April 1982 blizzard nyc".  I encourage everyone to go and take a look.  For those that lived through it, you will see a really young Storm Field as well as Spencer Christian.  Its was the top story of the day and opened the broadcast.  Man what I would do to have an instant replay this April.

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1 hour ago, MR FREEZE said:

What was the enso for the winter of 1981-82?  We all know what happened on April 6th-7th 1982!  About 10 inches of snow in Central Park on ALL surfaces (blacktop) and temperatures in the lower mid 20s throughout.  By the way, there is great footage of that storm of the local newscast on channel 7 eyewitness news that can be found on YouTube with a simple search "April 1982 blizzard nyc".  I encourage everyone to go and take a look.  For those that lived through it, you will see a really young Storm Field as well as Spencer Christian.  Its was the top story of the day and opened the broadcast.  Man what I would do to have an instant replay this April.

the winter of 1981-82 was a neutral one giving way to an el nino by the March April May tri monthly oni...there was a cold shot on my birthday that year...22 degrees on the 28th...I was in the Poconos for the storm and drove back to Brooklyn as the storm was ending...the cold after the storm was just as impressive...

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13 minutes ago, uncle w said:

 

That is the video I was talking about.  I didn't know how to post it properly on here.  I was born in March 1973 but remember this storm quite well.  In fact, it's what started me to become obsessed with snowstorms and arctic air masses.  That 1980s eyewitness news jingle really brings me back and I get chills.  John Johnson was in his early 40s here and he is still alive in his 80s now.

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