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Met Winter 2021 Second Half Threats


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32 minutes ago, Peakbagger46 said:

Back to modeling. We're all watching the weekend very carefully here. The long range HRRR is getting ZR into southern areas as early as early afternoon on Saturday with surface temps well below freezing. Depending on how quickly the column can saturate with strong HP over New England and Canada, there is some discrepancy on how quickly at least freezing drizzle breaks out. I know everyone is focused on Tuesday, but there are a lot of signals for a long duration light freezing rain event, which is much more efficient for accretion. This could sneak up on us quickly, and it has the potential for plenty of problems. DC already under a winter storm watch. 

hrrr_ref_frzn_neus_42.png

It's true. 

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It’s finally done. 

Ukie is a snowstorm for Thursday 

i wouldn't count on the north trend being over 

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I'm skeptical of the low end qpf the NAM is spitting out with the available moisture fetch & a good source of divergence aloft. It's probably not terribly far off, but even a minor difference would be significant in this low level cold situation. 

 

Thankfully it's happening over the weekend, so travel impacts will hopefully be low. But nevertheless, certainly something to keep in mind. Let your more vulnerable loved ones be aware ahead of time to avoid slip & falls. 

namconus_mslp_pwata_eus_43.png

namconus_uv250_eus_40.png

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2 minutes ago, DualJet said:

light wintry mix on the gfs on Monday now

Like you said. 6z/18z been the colder solutions. Could be coincidence. 

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