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Met Winter 2021 Second Half Threats


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It’s finally done. 

Ukie is a snowstorm for Thursday 

i wouldn't count on the north trend being over 

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Just now, brooklynwx99 said:

the GEFS made a major shift towards a colder solution 

 

both a weaker vort and lower heights in SE Canada because of more favorable positioning of the TPV vort 

 

gfs-ens_z500_vort_us_fh72_trend.gif


The 12z EURO also had a more favorable PV position. Maybe the start of a trend.

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Just now, djdude2122 said:

 

Where wuold the snow / ice line be on that map? The 0 line?


roughly yes, but it’s a mean..I posted it because the tpv really squashes the storm 

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4 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

the GEFS made a major shift towards a colder solution 

 

both a weaker vort and lower heights in SE Canada because of more favorable positioning of the TPV vort 

 

gfs-ens_z500_vort_us_fh72_trend.gif

curious if it goes backwards on the 00z run tonight. Seems be flipping back and forth

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3 minutes ago, DualJet said:

curious if it goes backwards on the 00z run tonight. Seems be flipping back and forth


Were the 18z GEFS warmer or colder than the 18z op yesterday?

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3 minutes ago, MI Storm said:

Looks like the OP was right down the middle. IMO this can go either way. Trend is good though. 

I think north jersey it will be either thump of snow to ice or extended ice to drizzle. Closer to coast still iffy. 

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I’m really having a hard time believing that we’ll see this much ice next week lol. I mean, I guess anything is possible but until I see it, I’m not believing it. Would probably be the worse ice storm since 1994 or 1973 if this happens tho. 

1ACDEF42-702A-4DFA-8845-432726C36468.png

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6 minutes ago, MJOP8 said:

I’m really having a hard time believing that we’ll see this much ice next week lol. I mean, I guess anything is possible but until I see it, I’m not believing it. Would probably be the worse ice storm since 1994 or 1973 if this happens tho. 

1ACDEF42-702A-4DFA-8845-432726C36468.png

You can say we are due...

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6 minutes ago, MJOP8 said:

I’m really having a hard time believing that we’ll see this much ice next week lol. I mean, I guess anything is possible but until I see it, I’m not believing it. Would probably be the worse ice storm since 1994 or 1973 if this happens tho. 

1ACDEF42-702A-4DFA-8845-432726C36468.png

Followed by this cold 🥶 would be nightmare Scenerio

 

image.png.2190f35508b1b6aaa6ba2efe11ec0acc.png

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51 minutes ago, WxLover said:

Wow...

1613487600-vw7HGGuDg4M.png

That's insane. I count only 8 of the 30 members giving Philly plain rain, only 4 giving NYC proper plain rain. All others are frozen of some kind. Seems like wintry precip of some kind is favored at this point for Tuesday storm. 

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12 minutes ago, BlizzardBill said:

Followed by this cold 🥶 would be nightmare Scenerio

 

image.png.2190f35508b1b6aaa6ba2efe11ec0acc.png


And if the GFS is right, more ice after on Thursday-Fri.

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41 minutes ago, BlizzardBill said:

Followed by this cold 🥶 would be nightmare Scenerio

 

image.png.2190f35508b1b6aaa6ba2efe11ec0acc.png


Devastating with no power. Good thing it probably won’t happen like that 

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2 minutes ago, SnowMapster said:

How is the 18Z EURO and/or eps looking for Tuesday's event? 

You know exactly when to ask these questions, don't you? ;) 

 

It's not quite out yet on weathermodels. 

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