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Met Winter 2021 Second Half Threats


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This is a whole lot of QPF being forecasted over the next 7 days, which includes a variety of different ptypes. I'm getting increasingly concerned about the weight of the snowpack on roofs of structures for those who have a very deep snowpack right now. It's just something to think about with a very sloppy week on the way for many. 

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It’s finally done. 

Ukie is a snowstorm for Thursday 

i wouldn't count on the north trend being over 

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3 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

The euro got owned by the American guidance for Tuesday. It has been completely lost the last three storms 

Is the EURO still cold and icy for Tuesday or did it cave to the other models. 

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NWS Charleston WV backed off the 4-7 inches snow they had issued yesterday at 3pm. Changed from WSWatch to Ice Storm Warning. We still have snow and ice on power lines from previous storms here and there’s still 20,000 without power. 

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14 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

The euro got owned by the American guidance for Tuesday. It has been completely lost the last three storms 

The euro did significantly better than every other model for the recent ice storm in dc. Showed between .38 and .44 qpf and we received .45. NAM was indicating less than a tenth of an inch even during the storm.

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7 minutes ago, Chris21 said:

The euro did significantly better than every other model for the recent ice storm in dc. Showed between .38 and .44 qpf and we received .45. NAM was indicating less than a tenth of an inch even during the storm.

Euro keeps trending warmer for many areas near the coast. Euro was too cold and now is trending towards the GFS .

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1 minute ago, Snowman11 said:

Euro keeps trending warmer for many areas near the coast. Euro was too cold and now is trending towards the GFS .

Can you post the ice map for the 6Z EURO for PA and NYC? Thank you!

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Going to be a real nice snow storm for those on the west side of the freezing and sleet line! Enjoy it all who gets snow this week. Prob some areas will see what we saw last week 2 feet of snow in a week. Pretty cool. 

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I think flooding is certainly an increasing concern this week. We still have a decent snowpack across the area and most storm drains are still blocked from previous snowfalls so at the very least we will see some urban and poor drainage flooding IMO. Both storms have the potential to bring multiple precipitation types with the latter storm looking more conducive for frozen precipitation. It is going to be a real mess. 

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9 minutes ago, Nchaboy said:

Going to be a real nice snow storm for those on the west side of the freezing and sleet line! Enjoy it all who gets snow this week. Prob some areas will see what we saw last week 2 feet of snow in a week. Pretty cool. 

Lake areas are going to get crushed with lake effect and the storm.

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2 minutes ago, Snowman11 said:

Lake areas are going to get crushed with lake effect and the storm.

Very little lake effect. 95% synoptic but there will be some lake enhancement near Ontario as Erie is mostly frozen now. 

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25 minutes ago, Snowman11 said:

Euro keeps trending warmer for many areas near the coast. Euro was too cold and now is trending towards the GFS .

Yeah, was just relating it’s performance on this most recent ice storm. The Euro was atrocious with the previous three waves but figured it was worth mentioning that it was spot in with the last one! I’m down in dc so not much hope with the Tuesday wave but good luck to all of you further north. Maybe we can will this Thursday wave more favorable!

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Good morning all, Am copying in info from elsewhere. 

 

 

859AM/14:  The GGEM/RGEM are going to win this Monday battle of no precip vs freezing precip occurring. The 06z EC and lesser so GFS, are capitulating to a two part event beginning Monday morning.  The 06Z EC gets this going pretty fast before dawn Monday.  

 

 Added NWS 09z/14 ensembles for .10 glaze and .25" glaze (threshold to begin power outages, the grow much larger when 0.50 glaze ) and added the 5AM view of NWS snowfall expected by Tuesday evening.  

 

LI - Mainly rain for this event- some of it heavy.  Otherwise, certainly an Advisory event coming inside of I-95 Monday-Tuesday morning. There is a low probability of Watch-Warning verification ne PA/nwNJ/se NYS and N CT for ice but questionalbe we can get to 1/2" damaging ice qualifying for a warning.  I suspect there will be some damage and power outages if the furnace (borrowed from others) RGEM continues this cold but amounts possibly below warning criteria.  The GFS is warm tho its 06z version looks slightly colder. The GFSV16 is colder than it's soon outgoing GFS op and it holds to the 0.2-0.4" FRAM ice accretion for the event, which begins sometime Monday and ends midday Tuesday.  I still don't have a good feel for Monday but modeling is trending to agree with prior versions(from at least back to 00z/13) of the GGEM/RGEM that our untreated surfaces problems begin Monday during the day, especially afternoon.    My feeling is the leftover advisory from this morning complicated multiple confusing headlines for the NWS and the idea, take one event at a time. 

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