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Met Winter 2021 Second Half Threats


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525AM Sunday the 14th- Valentines Day!  This event still looks interesting for snow lovers, despite the warm GFS OP. This is a prelim update for an event 5 days away. Definitely Advisory minimum potential, especially interior and possible Watch-Warning material interior part of the forum north of I78. Early guess on modeling...a range of 1/2-5" of snow-sleet Thursday before a change to ice North of I78 and just rain LI and south of I78 Thursday evening with rain most of the area for a short time Friday morning. Snow and ice ne PA/nw NJ se NYS/n CT. How much of each phase unknown.  Here's the NWS ensemble prob of 3+" of snow Thursday...that light blue is 70% up there by I84. (i case that graphic wasn't on here previously). I cant keep up with all the messages. Just try to keep myself straight. 

 

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It’s finally done. 

Ukie is a snowstorm for Thursday 

i wouldn't count on the north trend being over 

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Larry Cosgrove still saying we are not done with all frozen precipitation events in the I-95 corridor/east coast. We may have to wait for things to reshuffle a bit but he thinks the the pattern will once again be conducive for all frozen precipitation storms by the end of the month. I still think we have one KU type storm waiting for us in the wings before winter calls it quits. We'll see.

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May have been posted earlier, but presume you noticed the 375,000 customers (a little less than a miliion people) without power just n of RDU  through southern VA!  This was the SPC HREF FRAM ice forecast for the 00z/13 cycle for Saturday.  Not too bad. It tend to be a little heavy sometimes, and maybe a bit too cold on the south side.  If you look at power outage.us and click the states... pretty impressive.  That's what I'll be looking for up here in NJ/PA/NYS/CT Mon-Tue, THU-FRI.

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6 minutes ago, Rtd208 said:

Larry Cosgrove still saying we are not done with all frozen precipitation events in the I-95 corridor/east coast. We may have to wait for things to reshuffle a bit but he thinks the the pattern will once again be conducive for all frozen precipitation storms by the end of the month. I still think we have one KU type storm waiting for us in the wings before winter calls it quits. We'll see.

I think @NJwxguy78 said this the other day about snow chances.  Statistics show that there will be another accumulating snowfall after this coming week based on past history.  Whether it be an in or a foot, we won't know that. I'm happy Larry feels this way too.

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5 minutes ago, Rtd208 said:

Larry Cosgrove still saying we are not done with all frozen precipitation events in the I-95 corridor/east coast. We may have to wait for things to reshuffle a bit but he thinks the the pattern will once again be conducive for all frozen precipitation storms by the end of the month. I still think we have one KU type storm waiting for us in the wings before winter calls it quits. We'll see.

Models look to be getting better in the long range again after trending in the wrong direction for a couple of days. The euro has a weak low off the coast for Feb 23rd, 9 days from now. After this week of a variety of different precip types we look to be getting another shot at a snowstorm in 9-10 days, though the models aren’t showing anything big yet. 

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1 minute ago, Winterwxnj said:

I think @NJwxguy78 said this the other day about snow chances.  Statistics show that there will be another accumulating snowfall after this coming week based on past history.  Whether it be an in or a foot, we won't know that. I'm happy Larry feels this way too.

Larry Cosgrove has been very persistent that the pattern will remain conducive for wintry weather thru most of March. If the past few years have taught us anything is that wintry weather is possible well into the month of March with the right pattern in place. 

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4 minutes ago, Winterwxnj said:

I think @NJwxguy78 said this the other day about snow chances.  Statistics show that there will be another accumulating snowfall after this coming week based on past history.  Whether it be an in or a foot, we won't know that. I'm happy Larry feels this way too.

I just want to add something else. Some of our biggest and most intense storms usually occur during February, March and sometimes into April as well. So if precipitation type doesn't necessarily matter to you we are in prime time for some wild weather. 

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38 minutes ago, wdrag said:

May have been posted earlier, but presume you noticed the 375,000 customers (a little less than a miliion people) without power just n of RDU  through southern VA!  This was the SPC HREF FRAM ice forecast for the 00z/13 cycle for Saturday.  Not too bad. It tend to be a little heavy sometimes, and maybe a bit too cold on the south side.  If you look at power outage.us and click the states... pretty impressive.  That's what I'll be looking for up here in NJ/PA/NYS/CT Mon-Tue, THU-FRI.

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Awesome stuff Walt.  Please post more about this ice threat.  I am in Berks County and I think we are in the threat zone.  Hrrr rap euro have us in heavy ice and other models much less.  Still have large snowpack 

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This area averaged sounding from the NAM 3K is a cold rain for the majority of the posters here yet again early Tuesday morning. The bigger impacts from this system certainly look to be in the Monday afternoon to first part of the night where periods of light freezing rain/drizzle break out ahead of the more robust plume of heavier precipitation. Mesoscale guidance should be able to have a pretty good idea on the temps at various layers of the column at this point in time. Looks like we warm up pretty considerable on Tuesday, which should give ample time for the ice to melt off of trees and powerlines before refreezing Tuesday night. Overall, my concerns for significant icing have decreased substantially over the last 24 hours here in Bucks County, but it is still just a matter of only 1 - 3 degrees of a difference between a minor issue for millions of people, and a much more substantial one. 

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5 minutes ago, Peakbagger46 said:

This area averaged sounding from the NAM 3K is a cold rain for the majority of the posters here yet again early Tuesday morning. The bigger impacts from this system certainly look to be in the Monday afternoon to first part of the night where periods of light freezing rain/drizzle break out ahead of the more robust plume of heavier precipitation. Mesoscale guidance should be able to have a pretty good idea on the temps at various layers of the column at this point in time. Looks like we warm up pretty considerable on Tuesday, which should give ample time for the ice to melt off of trees and powerlines before refreezing Tuesday night. Overall, my concerns for significant icing have decreased substantially over the last 24 hours here in Bucks County, but it is still just a matter of only 1 - 3 degrees of a difference between a minor issue for millions of people, and a much more substantial one. 

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I still think NW of 287 is mainly ice.  If the CAD is undermodeled and temps are 2 - 3 degrees colder we have major issues.

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1 minute ago, WxLover said:

I still think NW of 287 is mainly ice.  If the CAD is undermodeled and temps are 2 - 3 degrees colder we have major issues.

Also I feel nam is often over amped and warm in these set ups 

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Pretty bold forecast but NYNJPA Weather but I said the same in early Feb and he was spot on with Jan 31-Feb 2 storm:

That is a lot of ice, 0.1-0.5 inches, in the orange zone. 

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2 minutes ago, Adam said:

Also I feel nam is often over amped and warm in these set ups 

It has support the global models too, with the 00Z/06Z Euro suite making a significant adjustment towards a warmer solution. If the NAM was alone with it's warmer solution, I would have a much harder time buying it. Again, many many posters here are within that range where just two degrees will have a drastically different impact, so obs need to be watched very carefully. 

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9 minutes ago, WxLover said:

I still think NW of 287 is mainly ice.  If the CAD is undermodeled and temps are 2 - 3 degrees colder we have major issues.

Those areas are in play for some nasty icing for the reasons denoted. Thankfully, the severe icing threat for the major metro areas directly along I-95 has lessened moving up in time. 

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Just now, Peakbagger46 said:

It has support the global models too, with the 00Z/06Z Euro suite making a significant adjustment towards a warmer solution. If the NAM was alone with it's warmer solution, I would have a much harder time buying it. Again, many many posters here are within that range where just two degrees will have a drastically different impact, so obs need to be watched very carefully. 

Looks nasty to me here 

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3 minutes ago, Oglem said:

Pretty bold forecast but NYNJPA Weather but I said the same in early Feb and he was spot on with Jan 31-Feb 2 storm:

That is a lot of ice, 0.1-0.5 inches, in the orange zone. 

There’s not a piece of guidance in the world that has 3-6 inches of snow sleet in kpou. 

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Speaking for here in NW NJ, very concerned for tomorrow night.  JCP&L better have their crews, out of state help and contracted tree services deployed throughout this area on Mon evening so they are ready to respond on Tue AM.  They have no excuse to get caught with their pants down as this has been on the table for several days now.

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