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Met Winter 2021 Second Half Threats


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6 minutes ago, MJOP8 said:

So is it basically, the warmer tomorrow gets, the colder Thursday will become, due TPV hanging back a bit?

Thursday still looks pretty warm after the initial round of snow

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It’s finally done. 

Ukie is a snowstorm for Thursday 

i wouldn't count on the north trend being over 

Posted Images

Man Thursday is really getting interesting. Your starting to get close to an early transfer and cold tuck on some of these runs. At the very least it increases the chance for a good thump. 

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The following 1154AM/14 update is for those concerned about power Monday night. The NWS ensemble mean glaze forecast (Sunday more ing update) is out for Monday-Monday night. The blue is 1/2", the dark green is 1/4". If you're anywhere with the dark green/blue, be aware you may not lose power Tuesday morning. This guidance may shift a little northwest on Monday with the southeast edge and total amounts possibly high by 1 or 2 tenths of an inch. Still, this guidance is heftier than what was projected for NC/VA and they got hit pretty hard. Difficult Monday night ahead and results for Tuesday morning may be problematic. My "guess" is a Winter Storm Watch "may" be issued ~330PM, for a Monday night ice storm in the blue area. 
 
May be an image of map, sky and text that says 'F24 HREF 24-hr FRAM accretion (in), ensemble mean NOAA/NWS/Storm Prediction Center F36 Run: Sun 2021-02-14 12:00 UTC Valid: Tue 2021 02 02-16 16 12:00 UTC'
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2 minutes ago, wdrag said:
The following 1154AM/14 update is for those concerned about power Monday night. The NWS ensemble mean glaze forecast (Sunday more ing update) is out for Monday-Monday night. The blue is 1/2", the dark green is 1/4". If you're anywhere with the dark green/blue, be aware you may not lose power Tuesday morning. This guidance may shift a little northwest on Monday with the southeast edge and total amounts possibly high by 1 or 2 tenths of an inch. Still, this guidance is heftier than what was projected for NC/VA and they got hit pretty hard. Difficult Monday night ahead and results for Tuesday morning may be problematic. My "guess" is a Winter Storm Watch "may" be issued ~330PM, for a Monday night ice storm in the blue area. 
 
May be an image of map, sky and text that says 'F24 HREF 24-hr FRAM accretion (in), ensemble mean NOAA/NWS/Storm Prediction Center F36 Run: Sun 2021-02-14 12:00 UTC Valid: Tue 2021 02 02-16 16 12:00 UTC'

Thanks Walt 

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1 hour ago, CCB! said:

This is shaping up to be a fairly serious icing threat for north & west areas Mon-Tues. I'd think by the afternoon packages, you should start seeing more bullish verbiage in the respective AFDs & a direction on advisories/watches/warnings. 

 

Interesting developments on guidance in that the amplified look runs the low further west than earlier. But it also leads to an enhanced jet streak to the north due to increased venting aloft. So the result at the surface is a stronger high pressure signature in the left exit region, more so than previously modeled. So an even stronger mid-lvl warmth push, coupled with a perhaps slightly denser/colder low level signature. That should lead to more ZR than sleet IMO for the aforementioned areas. It lends some credence to the CAD being "under-modeled" idea. Though in my opinion, this is in fact the model showing a stronger CAD signature, despite what any 2m temp maps show. 

 

Still touchy/very borderline in and around the metro areas. I'd imagine watches/advisories in those areas for now with room to upgrade as in-situ obs dictate. But I think ice storm warning criteria is now in the cards for areas away from the coast. 

461f7a43-875d-4e29-bf22-df84e05db122.gif

Do you think we could get a major ice storm in the Boston area, or is there a good chance warm ocean air will bring us over 32 degrees and give us cold rain instead?

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Last couple runs of HRRR have picked up on the idea that there could be some ZR in interior SJ, SEPA, and CNJ tonight, starting around 1 AM and going on/off through the night:

image.png.4198cd832a417097714f97116c50d108.png

Also shows some brief snow and sleet at Northern end of this precip in CNJ, NNJ.

 

EDIT: Also trended colder with low level cold throughout the area from 12z run for tomorrow (most recent run on left)

image.png.ce71d26c6ddc5f6f482ce1fededb654c.pngimage.png.b4e508347ef2e49c06d3b727ca20bb2a.png

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2 minutes ago, Oglem said:

Last couple runs of HRRR have picked up on the idea that there could be some ZR in interior SJ, SEPA, and CNJ tonight, starting around 1 AM and going on/off through the night:

image.png.4198cd832a417097714f97116c50d108.png

Also shows some brief snow and sleet at Northern end of this precip in CNJ, NNJ.

Interesting. This will be worth keeping tabs on, yet the HRRR also showed some snow yesterday in SEPA and the warm air depth above the surface was just too great. When I first saw this post, I thought I was transported back several pages and looking at yesterday's HRRR runs. 

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The HRRR is terrible. HREF or bust honestly. This model has been the best all winter. Warmer than expected today, 35 now, we melt

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7 minutes ago, George said:

Do you think we could get a major ice storm in the Boston area, or is there a good chance warm ocean air will bring us over 32 degrees and give us cold rain instead?

While I wouldn't declare the I-95 cities in the clear by any means, including Boston, I do think that UHI (urban heat island effect) will make it difficult for ice to effectively accrete in the cities themselves. Areas just to the N/W its going to be a battleground between the CAD/mid-lvl push trying to mix out the dense cold air. We know how that usually goes, unfortunately for those areas. 

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