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Met Winter 2021 Second Half Threats


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NAM ticks colder at surface for tomorrow. Significantly more ZR thru Tuesday in PA:

image.png.4467f84953d04af77e6f19da1db5db30.png

 

End of Tuesday ice accums, new run on right, 18z on  left:

image.png.1db8ef8aa22dfca61f114944fdc998f6.png

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It’s finally done. 

Ukie is a snowstorm for Thursday 

i wouldn't count on the north trend being over 

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5 minutes ago, Oglem said:

NAM ticks colder at surface for tomorrow. Significantly more ZR thru Tuesday in PA:

image.png.4467f84953d04af77e6f19da1db5db30.png

 

End of Tuesday ice accums, new run on right, 18z on  left:

image.png.1db8ef8aa22dfca61f114944fdc998f6.png

Warmer in NJ.. mid 30s by 3am in SE Sussex county than heavy storms come through and pull down even more warm air from aloft.  Would likely not hit 0.5” ICW criteria thankfully.  Also hard to accumulate FZR with intense rates and temps in low 30s.

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27 minutes ago, Oglem said:

NAM ticks colder at surface for tomorrow. Significantly more ZR thru Tuesday in PA:

image.png.4467f84953d04af77e6f19da1db5db30.png

 

End of Tuesday ice accums, new run on right, 18z on  left:

image.png.1db8ef8aa22dfca61f114944fdc998f6.png

tick tick tick. atleast for PA, this is the first model run to actually trend colder. nam finally picking up on the true depth of the cold air damming, it seems. this deserves a close eye for epa into nepa and the hudson valley.

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0z HRRR FRAM product keeps most of the severe icing well north & west of I-95. If you're going to use a model algorithm for ice accretion, this is a decent pick, though still potentially a bit overdone. 20210214_215433.jpg

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Obs and nowcasting manana to tell us what is what IMo with this set up. CADbis usually underdown and WAA is to. Surface temps are crucial here. A SW tick with this by even 25 miles would be rough. 

Such a fine line here with this complex storm.

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34 minutes ago, Keith O said:

Warmer in NJ.. mid 30s by 3am in SE Sussex county than heavy storms come through and pull down even more warm air from aloft.  Would likely not hit 0.5” ICW criteria thankfully.  Also hard to accumulate FZR with intense rates and temps in low 30s.

Yep, 0Z NAM warmer. vs. 18Z and 12Z  No ZR along/SE of 95 and nobody in NJ with over 1/4" of ice.  Only ZR increases are well NW of the Poconos/Sussex, due to less snow/sleet and more freezing rain.  Let's see what the rest of the models say...

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9 hours ago, Analog96 said:

Not the same at all.  Thursday offers an opportunity for a lot more snow.

While I'd agree there's a chance for some snow on Thursday, in the immediate NYC Metro region I don't think there's likely to be very much, maybe 2-4" tops before mixing and changing over. Points north and west, different story. 

WX/PT

 

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13 minutes ago, CCB! said:

0z HRRR FRAM product keeps most of the severe icing well north & west of I-95. If you're going to use a model algorithm for ice accretion, this is a decent pick, though still potentially a bit overdone. 20210214_215433.jpg

Definitely noticing some favorable shifts of icing a little further NW of I-95 from a good deal of guidance this evening. We’re going to have to monitor real time obs very carefully tomorrow before breathing a sigh of relief here as the margins are razor thin between very few problems, and a very destructive storm for millions of people.

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5 minutes ago, Peakbagger46 said:

Definitely noticing some favorable shifts of icing a little further NW of I-95 from a good deal of guidance this evening. We’re going to have to monitor real time obs very carefully tomorrow before breathing a sigh of relief here as the margins are razor thin between very few problems, and a very destructive storm for millions of people.

Indeed. I should add that while some of the short term model guidance is encouraging tonight, we'll need to wait & see how in-situ obs are looking tomorrow morning. If most of the obs line up w/short term guidance at that time, I'd expect the ice storm warnings closer to 95 to be downgraded. Still some ways to go though for the reasons you denote. 

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If the 0z NAM/HRRR are correct, pour one out for the bulk of the snowpack across much of the region. namconus_ref_frzn_neus_34.png

20210214_221856.jpg

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4 minutes ago, CCB! said:

If the 0z NAM/HRRR are correct, pour one out for the bulk of the snowpack across much of the region. namconus_ref_frzn_neus_34.png

20210214_221856.jpg

Looks. Very amped up. 

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Href looks more amped when comparing today's 12z to 0z. Takes longer for the frozen precip to make it into the region while the low level cold is available. output_oyIN4e.gif

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Metro Boston blew past our projected highs today by 5+ degrees.  Way warmer day/afternoon/evening - guessing we start warmer than projected tomorrow morning.  Up here I feel like (Overall) CAD is stubborn when it’s really rooted in for the prior few day/days.   This situation I’m less confident - especially in eastern Mass.

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Href remains fairly cold near the "battleground" areas, though the system is more amplified in general. In the end, out to 3z Tuesday, a bit of precip is lost off the bat. But extrapolated, is probably still an impactful event N/W of 95.

output_DY1Zl6.gif

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1 minute ago, CCB! said:

Href remains fairly cold near the "battleground" areas, though the system is more amplified in general. In the end, out to 3z Tuesday, a bit of precip is lost off the bat. But extrapolated, is probably still an impactful event N/W of 95.

output_DY1Zl6.gif

Is there a way that far NW areas can stay snow a little longer or will upper level air warm too fast?

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