Hohnywx 153 Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 Upton in their AFD talks about the need to closely monitor temps and that any fluctuations may necessitate the upgrade to warnings elsewhere in the Hudson Valley and interior CT: .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/... Deepening low pres is progged to track over or near NYC Tue mrng. This will produce a steadier, locally heavy period of pcpn Mon ngt, tapering off on Tue. The llvl flow will lock in the cold air for much of the region tonight. Highest confidence for no changeover to rain is across Orange and W Passaic, where an ice storm wrng has been issued. Elsewhere, the advy continues thru the ngt. The transition to rain will start at the coasts as usual and gradually transition nwd. The ending times of the advy were staggered to try to narrow down the ending times. Across portions of the lwr Hudson Valley and interior CT, there may be a need to upgrade to a wrng depending on how the sfc temps play out. The timing of the transition remains uncertain. Latest ice forecast from NWS Upton. The highest ice accretion has now been limited to the I-84 corridor. Lesser amounts N&W of I-287. Link to post Share on other sites
Popular Post Tony F 979 Posted February 15 Popular Post Share Posted February 15 Not sure the algorithm here (I'm guessing anything that falls under 32 is counted as snow) and I don't have the Weatherbell maps that are probably more accurate, but still.., this at least is showing that there are excellent chances of significant frozen precip.., and there was a nice jump between 0Z and 6Z which at the least shows that 6Z was colder. Link to post Share on other sites
Jake302 1,939 Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 Woah!! Surprise much? 77% chance of over 6 inches! Link to post Share on other sites
michaeld021 861 Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 NAM is not on board with front end thump Link to post Share on other sites
Snowman11 18,133 Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 12 minutes ago, michaeld021 said: NAM is not on board with front end thump It is less amplified compared to 6z. I like the barrage of highs Link to post Share on other sites
BlizzardBill 999 Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 7 minutes ago, michaeld021 said: NAM is not on board with front end thump Nam is extended ice storm looks like with that said it’s Nam at end of its range and out of its wheelhouse. Really not buying Nam yet on that. More interested to see if the Canadian Ukie gfs ect continue to show hits .. getting Euro fully on board also would be nice. Link to post Share on other sites
bird 677 Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 4 minutes ago, BlizzardBill said: Nam is extended ice storm looks like with that said it’s Nam at end of its range and out of its wheelhouse. Really not buying Nam yet on that. More interested to see if the Canadian Ukie gfs ect continue to show hits .. getting Euro fully on board also would be nice. Well said Blizz Link to post Share on other sites
CCB! 35,180 Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 2 minutes ago, Snowman11 said: It is less amplified compared to 6z. I like the barrage of highs It's just one area of high pressure. Ideally, you'd want it hanging back west a little longer too in order to lock in the cold, instead of being off the coast here. Link to post Share on other sites
Snowman11 18,133 Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 4 minutes ago, CCB! said: It's just one area of high pressure. Ideally, you'd want it hanging back west a little longer too in order to lock in the cold, instead of being off the coast here. Agree This would allow warmer air to race northward. Link to post Share on other sites
CCB! 35,180 Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 HREF continues to catch up to some of its counterparts with regard to the ice threat tonight/tomorrow. This continues to correct further N/W, warmer in NJ/SEPA into the metros. Not a great showing with this one, although it's still my favorite short term meso model. Link to post Share on other sites
DualJet 8,630 Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 7 minutes ago, CCB! said: HREF continues to catch up to some of its counterparts with regard to the ice threat tonight/tomorrow. This continues to correct further N/W, warmer in NJ/SEPA into the metros. Not a great showing with this one, although it's still my favorite short term meso model. I think the issue is the time lagged data in the href that may slow it down from picking up trends Link to post Share on other sites
CCB! 35,180 Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 1 minute ago, DualJet said: I think the issue is the time lagged data in the href that may slow it down from picking up trends That's a good point as it incorporates from such a variety of different meso models running at slightly different times. Either way, it's typically more measured when it makes adjustments. These were a bit more notable than what I'm used to it showing. Link to post Share on other sites
deform98 1,144 Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 1 hour ago, brooklynwx99 said: yet another big decrease in heights from 00z on the GEFS thanks to the TPV Still a concerning mid level evolution, as the trough begins to go negative too early and the mid level energy is well west of ideal. Synoptically, this evolution is messy for the nyc metro area, and more ideal for the interior. Height rises out ahead signal strong waa and unfavorable wind direction for the nyc area. Going to rely heavily on some front end potential, we shall see how this transpires on guidance over the next few days. Link to post Share on other sites
Psv 6,345 Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 Think the WWA could be dropped for city and coast. Link to post Share on other sites
NJwxguy78 26,625 Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 power outage here already. Link to post Share on other sites
CCB! 35,180 Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 1 minute ago, NJwxguy78 said: power outage here already. Not great. Link to post Share on other sites
NJwxguy78 26,625 Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 2 minutes ago, CCB! said: Not great. Not ideal. Link to post Share on other sites
Psv 6,345 Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 11 minutes ago, NJwxguy78 said: power outage here already. Good luck. Hopefully the warming trends continue for you Link to post Share on other sites
Analog96 10,442 Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 14 minutes ago, NJwxguy78 said: power outage here already. You must be the most unlucky in the entire state. Link to post Share on other sites
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