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Met Winter 2021 Second Half Threats


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Upton in their AFD talks about the need to closely monitor temps and that any fluctuations may necessitate the upgrade to warnings elsewhere in the Hudson Valley and interior CT:

 

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
Deepening low pres is progged to track over or near NYC Tue
mrng. This will produce a steadier, locally heavy period of pcpn
Mon ngt, tapering off on Tue. The llvl flow will lock in the
cold air for much of the region tonight. Highest confidence for
no changeover to rain is across Orange and W Passaic, where an
ice storm wrng has been issued. Elsewhere, the advy continues
thru the ngt. The transition to rain will start at the coasts as
usual and gradually transition nwd. The ending times of the
advy were staggered to try to narrow down the ending times.
Across portions of the lwr Hudson Valley and interior CT, there
may be a need to upgrade to a wrng depending on how the sfc
temps play out. The timing of the transition remains uncertain.

 

Latest ice forecast from NWS Upton. The highest ice accretion has now been limited to the I-84 corridor. Lesser amounts N&W of I-287.

StormTotalIceWeb.png

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It’s finally done. 

Ukie is a snowstorm for Thursday 

i wouldn't count on the north trend being over 

Posted Images

7 minutes ago, michaeld021 said:

NAM is not on board with front end thump 

A4824C7B-177B-43F7-BFC8-8D70D1FE02DE.png

Nam is extended ice storm looks like with that said it’s Nam at end of its range and out of its wheelhouse. Really not buying Nam yet on that. More interested to see if the Canadian Ukie gfs ect continue to show hits .. getting Euro fully on board also would be nice.

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4 minutes ago, BlizzardBill said:

Nam is extended ice storm looks like with that said it’s Nam at end of its range and out of its wheelhouse. Really not buying Nam yet on that. More interested to see if the Canadian Ukie gfs ect continue to show hits .. getting Euro fully on board also would be nice.

Well said Blizz  

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2 minutes ago, Snowman11 said:

It is less amplified compared to 6z.

I like the barrage  of highs

It's just one area of high pressure. Ideally, you'd want it hanging back west a little longer too in order to lock in the cold, instead of being off the coast here. 

 

namconus_mslpaNorm_eus_50.png

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4 minutes ago, CCB! said:

It's just one area of high pressure. Ideally, you'd want it hanging back west a little longer too in order to lock in the cold, instead of being off the coast here. 

 

namconus_mslpaNorm_eus_50.png

Agree

 

This would allow warmer air to race northward.

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HREF continues to catch up to some of its counterparts with regard to the ice threat tonight/tomorrow. This continues to correct further N/W, warmer in NJ/SEPA into the metros. Not a great showing with this one, although it's still my favorite short term meso model.

 

output_kFu75S.gif

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7 minutes ago, CCB! said:

HREF continues to catch up to some of its counterparts with regard to the ice threat tonight/tomorrow. This continues to correct further N/W, warmer in NJ/SEPA into the metros. Not a great showing with this one, although it's still my favorite short term meso model.

 

output_kFu75S.gif

I think the issue is the time lagged data in the href that may slow it down from picking up trends

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1 minute ago, DualJet said:

I think the issue is the time lagged data in the href that may slow it down from picking up trends

That's a good point as it incorporates from such a variety of different meso models running at slightly different times. Either way, it's typically more measured when it makes adjustments. These were a bit more notable than what I'm used to it showing.

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1 hour ago, brooklynwx99 said:

yet another big decrease in heights from 00z on the GEFS thanks to the TPV

 

gfs-ens_z500_vort_us_fh84_trend.gif

Still a concerning mid level evolution, as the trough begins to go negative too early and the mid level energy is well west of ideal.  Synoptically, this evolution is messy for the nyc metro area, and more ideal for the interior.  Height rises out ahead signal strong waa and unfavorable wind direction for the nyc area.  Going to rely heavily on some front end potential, we shall see how this transpires on guidance over the next few days.   

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11 minutes ago, NJwxguy78 said:

power outage here already. 
 

🤷‍♂️ 

Good luck. Hopefully the warming trends continue for you 

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