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February 18-19, 2021 Winter Storm

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after the 12z suite, my confidence for a significant snowfall event has increased throughout the metro   globals are likely underdoing the precip amounts. there is an anomalous 250mb jet, an

if anemic means a widespread 6-8”, sign me up please 

IMO, this is a 6-12" snowfall for a large area. 8-12" for much of the NYC metro. Areas closer to NYC can stop referring to this as a front end thump because most of the system will in fact be snow, wi

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31 minutes ago, amugs said:

This explains why the radar was showing sick bands but nothing was falling paralleling those returns and threw us off - even the models - so we would have had a 6-10" snowfall IF these did not occur in NNJ IMO.




If you go back a bunch of pages, @CCB! alluded to this exact scenario last night!

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2 hours ago, NJwxguy78 said:

this is the post I was talking about. Darn good.

Mint thanks for sharing Pasquale who needs NWS!! We have CCB and all the best of the rest at 33&rain

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looks like the NAM raises heights a bit over the metro and EPA, which allows the PVA to move a bit more inland, increasing precip


that small bit of amplification could make a big difference 



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People need to be careful out there. I just woke up from a nap and missed the freezing rain (ZR). We have a decent glaze (guessing 0.05-0.10") on everything and it's slippery on any untreated surface. Luckily I had put salt down where I had shoveled.  

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