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February 18-19, 2021 Winter Storm


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after the 12z suite, my confidence for a significant snowfall event has increased throughout the metro   globals are likely underdoing the precip amounts. there is an anomalous 250mb jet, an

if anemic means a widespread 6-8”, sign me up please 

IMO, this is a 6-12" snowfall for a large area. 8-12" for much of the NYC metro. Areas closer to NYC can stop referring to this as a front end thump because most of the system will in fact be snow, wi

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My primary concern continues to be the higher heights in response to the mid level energy passing over or west of us.  This could result in mid level warming, especially in NYC and areas s and e.  Any mixing could limit accumulations.  Those north of 80 and west of 287 sit more comfortably. 

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3 minutes ago, deform98 said:

My primary concern continues to be the higher heights in response to the mid level energy passing over or west of us.  This could result in mid level warming, especially in NYC and areas s and e.  Any mixing could limit accumulations.  Those north of 80 and west of 287 sit more comfortably. 

Right now the Euro is below freezing for NYC for the whole storm until the very end but all the precip is gone  . I would like the euro to bump up slightly north so the heavier precip gets more north .

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2 minutes ago, Snowman11 said:

Right now the Euro is below freezing for NYC for the whole storm until the very end but all the precip is gone  . I would like the euro to bump up slightly north so the heavier precip gets more north .

I’m not concerned about lack of precip.  I’m concerned with the mid level depiction on the guidance resulting in some warmer layers that could mix precip, even with surface temps below freezing. Meaning snow to some mixed wintry precip cutting accumulations down.  I am still comfortable though with 3-6” in the city.  

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8 minutes ago, deform98 said:

I’m not concerned about lack of precip.  I’m concerned with the mid level depiction on the guidance resulting in some warmer layers that could mix precip, even with surface temps below freezing. Meaning snow to some mixed wintry precip cutting accumulations down.  I am still comfortable though with 3-6” in the city.  

Reasonable call

 

Looks like the models are backing away from consolidating the coastal closer to the coast. 

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3 minutes ago, Snowman11 said:

Reasonable call

 

Looks like the models are backing away from consolidating the coastal closer to the coast. 

What did the 6z gfs show?

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554A/17: Originally late last week the 12th, it looked like heavy rain and ice south to north, now its  ice to snow south to north. A burst of moderate to briefly heavy snow Thursday, begins lightly between midnight and 6AM PA/NJ/se NYS Thursday much of the area, though it may delay a bit to the daylight hours north of I84.  Modeling allows sleet/freezing rain to get involved near the Thursday evening rush hour and eventually back to manageable, possibly intermittent snow on Friday.  Some modeling has a decent burst of snow Friday.  ~Half a foot or more seems likely for much of the area northwest of I95 in NJ with sleet/freezing rain (even maybe eventually even a bit of rain e LI) limiting the risk of 6" south of I78 and possibly LI as well. Graphics added are WPC 09z/17 ensembles chance of 8"+, chance of 1/2" glaze (see VA/NC; still 45,000 meters without power in CA this morning), chance of .01 freezing rain for the periods indicated (note ensemble chance of 8+ has higher chances southwest of Harrisburg but that includes time not shown in this depiction) and the NWS regional snow forecast that comprised their 4AM forecasts and decision making. Finally the NWS ensemble chance of 3"+ Monday the 22nd.  I84 corridor is not done ... Feb 26-27 and first week of March look a little interesting as well.   At the last minute, I added the SREF -3z/17 snow amount by 10PM Thursday. Axis looks very good but a little concerned about the south part of the axis compromised by ice which might lower those amounts on the south part of the axis.  

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3 minutes ago, Rygar said:

Never understood this contempt feeling.  They all struggle.  I think weather is just really complicated and we expect too much from our models.

For me it’s not really that hard to understand. The inconsistency from run to run on the models is very real. The euro was once far away above the others and now is just as inconsistent at the rest

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