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February 18-19, 2021 Winter Storm


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Verbatim, for NYC, comparing TT to Pivotal, this is 7.3" of snow, 2" of sleet (about 6.5" of snow worth), 0.1" of ZR, and topped off by 0.7" of rain for 2.1" LE.  More snow, but less sleet than 0Z, but just as insane.  

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after the 12z suite, my confidence for a significant snowfall event has increased throughout the metro   globals are likely underdoing the precip amounts. there is an anomalous 250mb jet, an

if anemic means a widespread 6-8”, sign me up please 

IMO, this is a 6-12" snowfall for a large area. 8-12" for much of the NYC metro. Areas closer to NYC can stop referring to this as a front end thump because most of the system will in fact be snow, wi

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Did I miss something negative in the guidance for DC? Everything looked like it has been trending right, but we are back at just a slight threat. Legitimate question because I didn’t think I saw anything that would have resulted in a downgrade. 

E9CE8E14-5CF7-42B5-84EA-8A7D6831B7E7.png

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9 minutes ago, zlyda said:

Did I miss something negative in the guidance for DC? Everything looked like it has been trending right, but we are back at just a slight threat. Legitimate question because I didn’t think I saw anything that would have resulted in a downgrade. 

E9CE8E14-5CF7-42B5-84EA-8A7D6831B7E7.png

Their forecast discussion hints at a lack of certainty on precip types and rapidity in which the transition occurs at this juncture given trends from past events this winter.  They emphasize it will be potentially impactful but the magnitude is tbd.  

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18 minutes ago, zlyda said:

Did I miss something negative in the guidance for DC? Everything looked like it has been trending right, but we are back at just a slight threat. Legitimate question because I didn’t think I saw anything that would have resulted in a downgrade. 

E9CE8E14-5CF7-42B5-84EA-8A7D6831B7E7.png

 

Away from the computer for the last few days so I haven't been able to follow this storm too deeply. But throwing a guess out here I wonder if it has too do with the fact that the trends have gone to more white then wet. While 6-10 inches of snow does have some impacts, they are no where near the impacts of .25-.5 of frz rain that the models were throwing out just a day or two ago. 

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3 hours ago, zlyda said:

Did I miss something negative in the guidance for DC? Everything looked like it has been trending right, but we are back at just a slight threat. Legitimate question because I didn’t think I saw anything that would have resulted in a downgrade. 

E9CE8E14-5CF7-42B5-84EA-8A7D6831B7E7.png

From what I’ve seen... the map is often just not the greatest forecast tool... at least at LWX, shifts seem to often disagree about the severity of a storm causing a lack of continuity. That’s just been my observation over the past 5/6 years they have been doing it. If anything... the models are depicting a more impactful event for the dc metro with overwhelming agreement on at least a sleetbomb with surface temps continuing to tick colder!

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17 minutes ago, Starsandstripeslandscaping said:

5 inches of snow followed by 0.5 inches of sleet, a glaze of freezing rain, then lights rain would be an absolute disgusting mess. Especially on top of the measly snowpack we’ll have left after today’s rain...

 

Isn't the rain pretty much done?

 

If the pack will get smaller from here on out it will be because of temps. 

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2 minutes ago, Sundog said:

 

Isn't the rain pretty much done?

 

If the pack will get smaller from here on out it will be because of temps. 

Yeah you’re right... upon reading that again it sounds awfully depressing I didn’t mean to come across like that. After last winter I will absolutely take the storms this winter has thrown at us. The tracking in this forum has been absolutely amazing thus far 

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517A: A nice solution coming (overall colder and snowier than what modeling was generally offering Friday the 12th) with a range of accumulations of 1" to possibly as much as a foot in the upper high end scenario northern PA/NJ I84 corridor. Thursday's evenings commute should be snowy for much of the area and see delays,  as it readies for a possible change to ice Near I78-LI (rain coastal NJ)  and then ends Friday, most of it done by sunrise Friday (but with early morning delays/cancels). Too early for me to be sure for the NYC/LI/NNJ membership but plenty of modeling close to half a foot.  A watch/warnable snow-ice event seems to be coming for a portion of NYC subforum,. IFFFFF NYC were to report half a foot, that would place NYC in the top 5 snowiest February's. 

 

This coming snow-sleet, whatever, should rejuvenate snow depth , and maybe allow half a foot or more for much of the area into Monday Feb 22. 

 

Two WPC graphics added 0930z/16: the 24 hour prob of 2" of snow by 7P Thursday and the 24 hr prob of 1/4" glaze by 7PM Thu (see southern VA/n central NC).

 

Screen Shot 2021-02-16 at 5.06.37 AM.png

Screen Shot 2021-02-16 at 5.08.53 AM.png

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33 minutes ago, Chris21 said:

From what I’ve seen... the map is often just not the greatest forecast tool... at least at LWX, shifts seem to often disagree about the severity of a storm causing a lack of continuity. That’s just been my observation over the past 5/6 years they have been doing it. If anything... the models are depicting a more impactful event for the dc metro with overwhelming agreement on at least a sleetbomb with surface temps continuing to tick colder!

I figured out the issue zlyda! That’s the day 3 map from sterling (which was just upgraded to orange) the day 4 is all red still! Ether way not the greatest tool but shows lwx is on board.

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4 minutes ago, Chris21 said:

I figured out the issue zlyda! That’s the day 3 map from sterling (and was just upgraded to orange, the day 4 is all red still! 

I saw they made an adjustment at 7 am. Day 4 map on LWX’s site is all green right now because that is Friday into Saturday. There will certainly be lingering issues into Friday and Saturday, but no new accumulation imo. 

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