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February 18-19, 2021 Winter Storm


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after the 12z suite, my confidence for a significant snowfall event has increased throughout the metro   globals are likely underdoing the precip amounts. there is an anomalous 250mb jet, an

if anemic means a widespread 6-8”, sign me up please 

IMO, this is a 6-12" snowfall for a large area. 8-12" for much of the NYC metro. Areas closer to NYC can stop referring to this as a front end thump because most of the system will in fact be snow, wi

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Just now, WxInTheHeights said:

It's just crazy how you guys in the south city always just seem to way outperform the northern parts.

per radar you should be doing fine right now. 

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4 minutes ago, WxInTheHeights said:

It's just crazy how you guys in the south city always just seem to way outperform the northern parts.

There are parts of Central NJ with 6+ already. Insane.

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Just now, zlyda said:

Well over an inch of sleet now just north of DC. Pea sized sleet is what we have now 

It is painful to think about how much snow this would have been if it wasn't for that little warm layer 5,000 feet up

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4 minutes ago, DualJet said:

@CCB!it looks like the models are really struggling where the best lift is at any given point. The convective look to radar also hints at that. We are likely seeing a wide variety of snow growth layers and snow habit from this fact alone. 

You said it best... For how bad the HRRR can be in some situations, its very short term lift profiles are typically fairly dependable. But based on the reports on here, it seems it can't hone in properly. I'm struggling here to get more than needles & the occasional plates despite heavy echoes. But others keep reporting & posting great sized flakes where the model soundings don't show it. You love to see it!

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13 minutes ago, wxmd529 said:

Flake size and fluff factor has been pretty solid on LI 

 

Same here snow growth is excellent. Tons of fluffy dendrites. 

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3 minutes ago, DualJet said:

@CCB!it looks like the models are really struggling where the best lift is at any given point. The convective look to radar also hints at that. We are likely seeing a wide variety of snow growth layers and snow habit from this fact alone. 

Like I said earlier, I’ve had the kitchen sink of frozen precip, everything from from sleet to puffy snowballs lol

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