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Current Observations: Spring/Summer 2021


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Morning thoughts...

 

Today will be partly cloudy and very warm. Showers and thundershowers are likely as a cold front crosses the region. Temperatures will likely top out mainly in the middle and upper 80s in much of the region. A few places could reach or exceed 90° . Likely high temperatures around the region include:

 

New York City (Central Park): 89°

Newark: 94°

Philadelphia: 89°

 

Tomorrow will be variably cloudy and cooler. Additional showers are possible.

 

Out West, Phoenix will likely see the development of a period of extreme heat this weekend into at least early next week. The temperature could reach 115° on one or more days during the Monday-Wednesday period. The last time that happened in June was 2017 when there were five such days. The historic average is 0.4 days per year in June. The 1991-20 average is 0.6 days.  The unseasonable heat will likely extend northward into southern Canada including Alberta and Saskatchewan. 

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From Thursdays storms pics from my neighbors.    

Yay!

Just got a flurry here in the poconos...

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Morning thoughts...

 

Today will be mostly sunny and warm. Temperatures will likely reach the lower and middle 80s in most places . Likely high temperatures around the region include:

 

New York City (Central Park): 84°

Newark: 87°

Philadelphia: 85°

 

Tomorrow will be partly cloudy and much cooler.

 

Out West, Phoenix will likely see the development of a period of extreme heat this weekend into at least early next week. The temperature could reach 115° on one or more days during the Monday-Thursday period. The unseasonable heat will likely extend northward into southern Canada including Alberta and Saskatchewan. 

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Cold front looks to be stalling hundreds of miles north of model projections.

This could throw a monkey wrench into the forecast for the next couple of days.

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1 hour ago, Analog96 said:

Cold front looks to be stalling hundreds of miles north of model projections.

This could throw a monkey wrench into the forecast for the next couple of days.

Warmer with more heavy rain/storms?

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3 minutes ago, Rtd208 said:

Warmer with more heavy rain/storms?

At least cloudier and perhaps rainier, although I am not sure on the latter yet.

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2 minutes ago, Analog96 said:

At least cloudier and perhaps rainier, although I am not sure on the latter yet.

Seems like temps are off to a good start back at home. Been down in Cape May all week, it was brutal down here yesterday. Maybe some areas can make 90+ again today in the NYC metro but with much lower DP's?.

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1 minute ago, Rtd208 said:

Seems like temps are off to a good start back at home. Been down in Cape May all week, it was brutal down here yesterday. Maybe some areas can make 90+ again today in the NYC metro but with much lower DP's?.

Not unless the sun comes out

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Morning thoughts...

 

Today will be partly to mostly cloudy and cooler. Some locations could pick up showers, especially south of New York City. Temperatures will likely reach the upper 60s and lower 70s in most places. Likely high temperatures around the region include:

 

New York City (Central Park): 72°

Newark: 75°

Philadelphia: 69°

 

Tomorrow will be partly cloudy with high temperatures in the middle 70s.

 

Out West, Phoenix will very likely see the development of a period of extreme heat this weekend into at least early next week. The temperature will likely reach 115° on one or more days during the Monday-Thursday period, which would tie or break daily records. The potential for even higher temperatures exists, as a 1 standard deviation increase from the modeled outcome would produce peak high temperatures around 118° at the height of the extreme heatwave. The unseasonable heat will likely extend northward into southern Canada including Alberta and Saskatchewan. 

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My point & click NWS forecast calls for 20% chance of showers
It's been raining for over an hour
and the coverage is much greater than 20%

and they updated it at 1:12pm. What gives?

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Morning thoughts...

 

Today will be partly to mostly cloudy and cool. Temperatures will likely reach the lower and middle 70s in most places. Likely high temperatures around the region include:

 

New York City (Central Park): 73°

Newark: 76°

Philadelphia: 77°

 

Tomorrow will be variably cloudy with high temperatures in the middle 70s.

 

Out West, record-breaking heat will develop in Phoenix. The temperature will likely reach 115° on one or more days, especially during the Monday-Thursday period. It is likely that Phoenix will see its earliest 116° or above temperature on record. The unseasonable heat will likely extend northward into southern Canada including Alberta and Saskatchewan. 

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Morning thoughts...

 

Today will be partly to mostly cloudy and somewhat warmer. Temperatures will likely reach the middle and upper 70s in most places. Likely high temperatures around the region include:

 

New York City (Central Park): 76°

Newark: 79°

Philadelphia: 79°

 

The somewhat cooler than normal temperatures will likely persist through midweek. Afterward, a warmer regime could begin to evolve.

 

Out West, record-breaking heat will develop across the Southwest, including Phoenix. At Phoenix, the temperature will likely reach 115° on multiple days, especially during the Monday-Friday period. It is likely that Phoenix will see its earliest 116° or above temperature on record. The unseasonable heat will likely extend northward into southern Canada including Alberta and Saskatchewan. 

 

Daily Records for June 13:

 

Phoenix: 114°, 1936 (Forecast: 112° to 116°)

Tucson: 110°, 1924 (Forecast: 111° to 113°)

 

*-Forecast range is 1 sigma below and above the forecast mean.

 

Tucson set a daily record high temperature of 110° yesterday. The old record was 109°, which was set in 1924 and tied in 1933 and 1995.

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Morning thoughts...

 

Today will be mostly cloudy and somewhat cooler than normal. Showers and thunderstorms are likely with some periods of rain in the morning and thunderstorms during the afternoon and evening. Some of the thunderstorms can be strong. Temperatures will likely reach the lower and middle 70s in most places. Likely high temperatures around the region include:

 

New York City (Central Park): 72°

Newark: 77°

Philadelphia: 81°

 

Normals:

New York City: 30-Year: 79.3°; 15-Year: 79.2°

Newark: 30-Year: 81.5°; 15-Year: 81.5°

Philadelphia: 30-Year: 82.9°; 15-Year: 83.1°

 

The somewhat cooler than normal temperatures will likely persist through midweek. Afterward, a warmer regime could begin to evolve.

 

Out West, record-breaking heat will continue across the Southwest, including Phoenix. At Phoenix, the temperature will likely reach 115° on multiple days, especially during the Monday-Friday period. It is likely that Phoenix will see its earliest 116° or above temperature on record. The unseasonable heat will likely extend northward into southern Canada including Alberta and Saskatchewan. 

 

Daily Records for June 14:

 

Phoenix: 115°, 1987 (Forecast: 114° to 118°)

Tucson: 111°, 1993 (Forecast: 110° to 112°)

 

*-Forecast range is 1 sigma below and above the forecast mean.

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