Rtd208 3,556 Posted March 24 Share Posted March 24 Interesting read for today/tonight from Mt. Holly .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... The lengthy stretch of dry weather comes to an end today. Beautiful satellite imagery over the CONUS this morning as an occluding mid- latitude cyclone slowly approaches the western Great Lakes. Ahead of it lies an expansive frontal zone of cloud cover with a large band of cold cloud tops observed on IR from Canada to the Gulf of Mexico. Precipitation in most of this band is limited and on the light side as of early this morning, however. Meanwhile, a weak but pesky surface low which has sat well to our south for days was observed on radar moving inland over North Carolina overnight. The landfall was reminiscent of a weak tropical cyclone moving ashore. FSU cyclone phase space diagrams suggest it had at best a marginal and shallow warm core at landfall, and a lack of any deep convection rendered it firmly non-tropical. But it has a good envelope of higher moisture air associated with it from the sub-tropics, and as the day goes on it will begin to interact with the approaching frontal zone. This combination will lead to the blossoming of an area of showers which will bring a solid dose of rain to the area. Prior to the start of rainfall, we`ve seen low clouds fill in over much of the area overnight as the low levels moisten further in the continued light onshore flow regime. This trend should continue into daybreak, and we should see more in the way of fog develop as well. It is possible we could see some breaks in the clouds during the mid morning hours as mixing begins and before rain arrives, but this is uncertain and probably less likely than not. As the day goes on, what remains of the low to the south will become entrained in the slow moving frontal zone and will move towards our region. Continuing a trend that has been ongoing for at least 36 hours now, most model guidance continues to trend higher on QPF for this event. There has certainly been a trend higher in projected PWATs for today, which appear poised to rise to 1.2 to 1.4 inches across the region. Low level omega shows notable improvement over the area today, especially this afternoon. There is also a somewhat subtle ~95 kt upper jet streak which moves into New York state this afternoon, adding a bit of divergence at the upper levels. With this said, continuing the connections to tropical weather, there are at least some loose parallels to a Predecessor Rain Event (PRE) in play today with the rising PWATs and right entrance jet dynamics, especially considering the actual center of the compact low remains south of the region for most of the day. While there is quite a bit of variation in the models, it now appears many areas will pick up 0.5 to 1.0 inches of rain today, with the potential for some localized higher amounts especially over southeastern portions of the area near the low center, and possibly over eastern PA with some orographic enhancement as well as the better jet dynamics. The trends have been a little slower on timing of rainfall, but showers should overspread the region from southwest to northeast mainly between 9AM and 2PM. Lighter showers or drizzle are possible before the arrival of steadier rain. Once the steadier rain arrives, it should continue through at least most of the daylight hours, possibly tapering off late in the day to the southwest. Given the rising PWATs and respectable dynamics, some heavier downpours are possible. So a wet day overall, especially this afternoon. While the air mass remains on the warm side, the rain and clouds will hold highs down in the mid to upper 50s in most of the area. Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Rtd208 3,556 Posted March 25 Author Share Posted March 25 Interesting discussion from Mt. Holly for both Friday and Sunday. Model soundings suggest winds will be increasing in this regime, readily gusting to 35+ mph by afternoon. As winds begin to veer, diurnal mixing peaks, and a reinforcing cold front approaches the area, speeds will likely exceed advisory criteria in much of the area. Winds at 850 mb will be approaching 50 kt, and mixing has the potential to reach or even exceed this level. Seems likely we will need a wind advisory for Friday afternoon and evening, and if mixing ends up being more efficient than currently advertised, a rogue severe-caliber gust may occur. Held off on issuing wind headlines early this morning given ongoing/near-term weather, but expect wind products to be issued for the afternoon package. Winds should decrease fairly rapidly Friday night as the migratory surface low takes the strong pressure gradient with it to our northeast. Strong cold advection will be occurring in the post-frontal regime, but winds will not entirely decouple. Thus, kept Friday night lows fairly warm, generally in the 40s to around 50. .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... A fairly strong system will affect the region on Sunday, though the surface cyclone should lift well north of the region. Nevertheless, upper dynamics look fairly impressive as an initially positively-tilted trough begins to pivot to a more neutral tilt as it approaches the East Coast during the day. A 100+ kt speed max at 500 mb will nose into the Mid-Atlantic during the afternoon, collocated with a surging cold front to the south of the aforementioned surface low. As warm advection races north in the developing warm sector, convection should readily develop along the attendant warm/cold fronts. Widespread precipitation should occur in New England and the Mid-Atlantic in this setup, with areal QPF likely exceeding a half inch across the CWA (locally much higher amounts possible). Will need to watch this system closely, as both severe and hydro issues may be present depending on the usual timing/track issues. Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Qtown Snow 7,707 Posted March 25 Share Posted March 25 april fools Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Snowman11 18,133 Posted March 25 Share Posted March 25 22 minutes ago, Qtown Snow said: april fools Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Snowman11 18,133 Posted March 26 Share Posted March 26 NAO and AO taking a nosedive next week Lets see how long the NAO will stay negative Quote Link to post Share on other sites
CCB! 35,180 Posted March 26 Share Posted March 26 Just some red meat for you animals. CMC: Because why not: Quote Link to post Share on other sites
donsutherland1 6,985 Posted March 27 Share Posted March 27 Temperatures soared to record highs in much of the region today as clouds yielded to sunshine and strong winds. At New York City's Central Park, the temperature reached 80° in March for the first time since March 31, 1998 when the temperature topped out at a sizzling 86°. Today was also just the 16th day on record when the temperature reached or exceeded 80° in Central Park. Records go back to 1869. Today was also the first 80° reading at JFK Airport since March 29, 1998 when the mercury rose to 82°. High temperatures included: Albany: 75° (old record: 74°, 1986) Allentown: 77° (old record: 74°, 1963) Annapolis: 83° Atlantic City: 83° (old record: 71°, 1986 and 2003) Baltimore: 83° Bridgeport: 79° (old record: 70°, 1954) Georgetown, DE: 86° (old record: 78°, 1988 and 2004) Harrisburg: 77° Hartford: 77° (old record: 74°, 1922) Islip: 78° (old record: 65°, 1976) Jacksonville: 90° (old record: 88°, 1965) New Haven: 77° (old record: 67°, 1954) New York City-JFK: 81° (old record: 67°, 1954) New York City-LGA: 82° (old record: 72°, 1943) New York City-NYC: 82° (old record: 76°, 1922) Newark: 84° (old record: 73°, 1986) Philadelphia: 83° (old record: 80°, 1921) Poughkeepsie: 79° (old record: 75°, 1949 and 1963) Richmond: 86° (old record: 85°, 1939) Savannah: 90° (old record: 88°, 1929) Salisbury: 82° Sterling, VA: 81° (old record: 78°, 2004) Trenton: 81° (old record: 79°, 1910 and 1921) Washington, DC: 84° Westhampton: 72° (old record: 67°, 1954) White Plains: 80° (old record: 76°, 1963) Wilmington, DE: 84° (old record: 77°, 1921) Tomorrow will be cooler but still warm for the season. The ongoing sustained period warmer than normal readings will continue through the end of March. In contrast, April could start out on the cold side. Historic experience following a warm to very warm March suggests a probability that is skewed toward a warmer than normal April. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.5°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.5°C for the week centered around March 17. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.08°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.77°C. La Niña conditions will likely give way to neutral-cool ENSO conditions as the spring progresses. The SOI was +9.57 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +3.347 today. On March 24 the MJO was in Phase 2 at an amplitude of 1.394 (RMM). The March 23-adjusted amplitude was 1.483 (RMM). Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 100% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal March. March will likely finish with a mean temperature near 45.2° (2.7° above normal). Quote Link to post Share on other sites
MR FREEZE 333 Posted March 27 Share Posted March 27 1 hour ago, donsutherland1 said: Temperatures soared to record highs in much of the region today as clouds yielded to sunshine and strong winds. At New York City's Central Park, the temperature reached 80° in March for the first time since March 31, 1998 when the temperature topped out at a sizzling 86°. Today was also just the 16th day on record when the temperature reached or exceeded 80° in Central Park. Records go back to 1869. Today was also the first 80° reading at JFK Airport since March 29, 1998 when the mercury rose to 82°. High temperatures included: Albany: 75° (old record: 74°, 1986) Allentown: 77° (old record: 74°, 1963) Annapolis: 83° Atlantic City: 83° (old record: 71°, 1986 and 2003) Baltimore: 83° Bridgeport: 79° (old record: 70°, 1954) Georgetown, DE: 86° (old record: 78°, 1988 and 2004) Harrisburg: 77° Hartford: 77° (old record: 74°, 1922) Islip: 78° (old record: 65°, 1976) Jacksonville: 90° (old record: 88°, 1965) New Haven: 77° (old record: 67°, 1954) New York City-JFK: 81° (old record: 67°, 1954) New York City-LGA: 82° (old record: 72°, 1943) New York City-NYC: 82° (old record: 76°, 1922) Newark: 84° (old record: 73°, 1986) Philadelphia: 83° (old record: 80°, 1921) Poughkeepsie: 79° (old record: 75°, 1949 and 1963) Richmond: 86° (old record: 85°, 1939) Savannah: 90° (old record: 88°, 1929) Salisbury: 82° Sterling, VA: 81° (old record: 78°, 2004) Trenton: 81° (old record: 79°, 1910 and 1921) Washington, DC: 84° Westhampton: 72° (old record: 67°, 1954) White Plains: 80° (old record: 76°, 1963) Wilmington, DE: 84° (old record: 77°, 1921) Tomorrow will be cooler but still warm for the season. The ongoing sustained period warmer than normal readings will continue through the end of March. In contrast, April could start out on the cold side. Historic experience following a warm to very warm March suggests a probability that is skewed toward a warmer than normal April. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.5°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.5°C for the week centered around March 17. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.08°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.77°C. La Niña conditions will likely give way to neutral-cool ENSO conditions as the spring progresses. The SOI was +9.57 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +3.347 today. On March 24 the MJO was in Phase 2 at an amplitude of 1.394 (RMM). The March 23-adjusted amplitude was 1.483 (RMM). Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 100% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal March. March will likely finish with a mean temperature near 45.2° (2.7° above normal). Are you sure March 2012 didn't hit 80 on any days? Quote Link to post Share on other sites
MR FREEZE 333 Posted March 27 Share Posted March 27 1 hour ago, MR FREEZE said: Are you sure March 2012 didn't hit 80 on any days? Just looked into it and it appears 76 was the best it got to in the park. Still, this was one of the warmest March's on record in many places in the eastern third of the country. Numbers were skewed warmer at both Kennedy and LaGuardia airports. Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Analog96 10,442 Posted March 27 Share Posted March 27 30 minutes ago, MR FREEZE said: Just looked into it and it appears 76 was the best it got to in the park. Still, this was one of the warmest March's on record in many places in the eastern third of the country. Numbers were skewed warmer at both Kennedy and LaGuardia airports. More consistent warmth. There were no cold spells in between the warm days. Quote Link to post Share on other sites
uncle w 4,247 Posted March 27 Share Posted March 27 10 hours ago, MR FREEZE said: Just looked into it and it appears 76 was the best it got to in the park. Still, this was one of the warmest March's on record in many places in the eastern third of the country. Numbers were skewed warmer at both Kennedy and LaGuardia airports. warmest March temps in NYC... 86 3/29/1945.........86 3/31/1998......... 85 3/13/1990.........84 3/21/1921......... 84 3/28/1945......... 83 3/20/1945......... 83 3/27/199882 3/16/1990......... 82 3/26/202182 3/28/1921......... 82 3/30/1998.........82 3/29/1985......... 81 3/29/1977 81 3/29/1998 80 3/28/1998 Quote Link to post Share on other sites
MJOP8 4,244 Posted March 27 Share Posted March 27 3 hours ago, uncle w said: warmest March temps in NYC... 86 3/29/1945.........86 3/31/1998......... 85 3/13/1990.........84 3/21/1921......... 84 3/28/1945......... 83 3/20/1945......... 83 3/27/199882 3/16/1990......... 82 3/26/202182 3/28/1921......... 82 3/30/1998.........82 3/29/1985......... 81 3/29/1977 81 3/29/1998 80 3/28/1998 Wow, March 98. Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Rtd208 3,556 Posted March 27 Author Share Posted March 27 https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day2otlk.html Quote Link to post Share on other sites
MR FREEZE 333 Posted March 27 Share Posted March 27 3 hours ago, MJOP8 said: Wow, March 98. 4 straight days over 80 in the park has to be the record for consecutive 80+ days in March. Quote Link to post Share on other sites
MR FREEZE 333 Posted March 27 Share Posted March 27 7 hours ago, uncle w said: warmest March temps in NYC... 86 3/29/1945.........86 3/31/1998......... 85 3/13/1990.........84 3/21/1921......... 84 3/28/1945......... 83 3/20/1945......... 83 3/27/199882 3/16/1990......... 82 3/26/202182 3/28/1921......... 82 3/30/1998.........82 3/29/1985......... 81 3/29/1977 81 3/29/1998 80 3/28/1998 I would be interested to know if April cooled back down a bit or if the park reached 32 again. I can't recall off the top of my head but I do remember that the summer of 1999 was more brutal than the one that occurred in 1998. Also, I also think I recall the park hitting the single digits in March 1990 shortly before that hot day on the 13th? It was like the mini bookend to Dec 1989 which was awesome for its endless cold but yielded to an awful Jan and Feb. Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Analog96 10,442 Posted March 27 Share Posted March 27 2 hours ago, MR FREEZE said: I would be interested to know if April cooled back down a bit or if the park reached 32 again. I can't recall off the top of my head but I do remember that the summer of 1999 was more brutal than the one that occurred in 1998. Also, I also think I recall the park hitting the single digits in March 1990 shortly before that hot day on the 13th? It was like the mini bookend to Dec 1989 which was awesome for its endless cold but yielded to an awful Jan and Feb. The summer of 1998 was very cool. The summer of 1999 was very hot. March 1990 was probably the most topsy turvy month ever. We had bitter cold to start, then record warmth, and there was slushy snow at the end of March. Quote Link to post Share on other sites
donsutherland1 6,985 Posted March 27 Share Posted March 27 Tomorrow mostly cloudy with some showers and possibly thundershowers. It will remain mild for the season. The remainder of March will continue to see generally warmer than normal readings. As March concludes and April commences, the Arctic Oscillation (AO) is forecast to plunge more than 3 sigma from its current value. As recently as 2018, the AO fell from +1.743 to -2.188 during the March 26-April 3 period. There was a strong cold shot and even a snowstorm. A cold shot is more likely than a snowstorm this time around. Overall, April could start out on the cold side. Historic experience following a warm to very warm March suggests a probability that is skewed toward a warmer than normal April. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.5°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.5°C for the week centered around March 17. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.08°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.77°C. La Niña conditions will likely give way to neutral-cool ENSO conditions as the spring progresses. The SOI was +9.62 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +2.927 today. On March 25 the MJO was in Phase 2 at an amplitude of 1.068 (RMM). The March 24-adjusted amplitude was 1.391 (RMM). Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 100% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal March. March will likely finish with a mean temperature near 45.4° (2.9° above normal). Quote Link to post Share on other sites
uncle w 4,247 Posted March 28 Share Posted March 28 I hit 90 on March 31st 1998 on Staten Island...five straight days 80 or higher from the 27th-31st...that was a week after the snowfall on March 22nd...March 1990 had 3-5" of snow on the 6th with near record cold afterwards...there was record cold at the end of February 1990...Nov-Dec 1989 was very cold...January to the end of February was very warm...a cold last week in Feb and 1st week in March gave way to 80's on the 15th...April 7th 1990 had almost an inch of snow...it hit 90 by months end.. Quote Link to post Share on other sites
uncle w 4,247 Posted March 28 Share Posted March 28 some April stats for NYC... Warmest Coldest temperatures... 96 17th 2002........12 1st 1923 96 18th 1976........20 5th 1874 92 16th 2002........21 4th 1874 92 7th 2010...................... 92 19th 1976........21 5th 1881 92 26th 2009........21 6th 1982 92 27th 1915........21 7th 1982 91 25th 1915........21 19th 1875 91 30th 1942........22 12th 1874 91 17th 1976........22 1st 1919 91 18th 2002........22 2nd 1919 91 27th 1990........23 7th 1881 91 27th 1962........23 6th 1881 90 8th 1991..........23 5th 1995 90 12th 1977........23 4th 1954 90 18th 1896........23 1st 1874 90 20th 1927 90 28th 1990 90 28th 2009 Coldest daily max... 30 5th 1881 30 7th 1982 31 6th 1881 32 4th 1879 32 5th 1879 33 6th 1938 34 6th 1943 34 5th 1944 34 3rd 1896 34 1st 1874 Biggest snowstorms... 10.2" 3-4th 1915 10.0" 13th 1875 9.6" 6th 1982 8.5" 1st 1924 6.5" 8-9th 1917 6.5" 5th 1944 6.4" 6-7th 1938 5.5" 2nd 2018 5.0" 9th 1907 4.2" 8th 1956 4.0" 7th 2003 3.3" 8-9th 1916 3.3" 5-6th 1896 3.0" 18th 1887 3.0" 25th 1875 2.6" 11-13th 1918 2.5" 4th 1957 2.5" 4th 1870 2.5" 5th 1898 2.2" 9-10th 1942 2.0" 2nd 1871 1.9" 14th 1950 1.7" 12-13th 1940 1.2" 9th 2000 1.2" 2nd 1965 1.0" 12th 1894 1.0" 15th 1892 1.0" 4th 1886 Quote Link to post Share on other sites
OHweather 2,318 Posted March 28 Share Posted March 28 Ignoring the snow potential later this week for now...I'm highly skeptical of anything more than mood flakes (it does get cold, but I don't trust an anafront in January let alone April this far out)...strong forcing, strong low-level shear, and great hi-res model on a low topped squall that could bring gusty / damaging winds, maybe a spin-up or two even into much of E PA, NJ and the Hudson Valley on Sunday! The HRRR soundings are easily unstable enough for a severe threat...this is an average from the lower HV through much of NJ and far SE PA: The NAM is a little bit more stable, and would perhaps limit the severe threat: My hunch is it's closer to the HRRR and we have a severe threat, but we'll see if the earlier rain can keep temperatures on the cooler side of guidance, which would be the most obvious way to limit the northward extent of the severe threat. For now, the 0z hi-res models are in remarkable agreement: HREF mean (consisting of many of the above models) also bares out a high shear situation with adequate CAPE rather far north, along with most models explicitly showing a gusty line of storms: / Don't get me wrong, I find out of season snow to be strangely fun, but these forced low topped lines seem to be exciting more often than not, so let's see what Sunday brings! I'd almost say slight risk for all of E PA and most of NJ, maybe clipping like Orange and Rockland Co's in the Hudson Valley, something like 15% wind, 2% tornado on the SPC categories. Quote Link to post Share on other sites
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