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Spring/Summer 2021 Weather Threats Discussion


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Tomorrow will be partly to mostly cloudy and again somewhat cooler than normal. However, some warming is likely on Monday. Overall, the first half of June will likely wind up much warmer than normal.

 

Out West, an extreme heatwave is now developing in the Southwest, including Phoenix. Late this afternoon, the temperature reached 110° in Phoenix for the first time this year. Last year saw a record 53 such days (prior record: 33, 2011). The least 110° days on record was 0, which was set in 1911. The average number of such days per year is 20.3 (1991-20 normals), which was an increase of 2.3 days from the 1981-10 normals.

 

The extreme heat will likely continue through much of next week. The temperature could reach 115° on one or more days, especially during the Monday-Friday period. For reference, Phoenix's daily records for the June 13-18 period are posted below.

 

Record high maximum temperatures:

 

June 13: 114°, 1896 and 1936
June 14: 115°, 1987
June 15: 115°, 1974
June 16: 115°, 1974
June 17: 114°, 2014
June 18: 115°, 1989 and 2015

 

Record high minimum temperatures:

 

June 13: 87°, 2018
June 14: 90°, 2018 (earliest 90° low on record)
June 15: 88°, 1936
June 16: 86°, 1988
June 17: 88°, 1986 and 2008
June 18: 88°, 2008

 

Phoenix will very likely see the earliest temperature above 115° on record. The existing record was set on June 19, 2016 when the temperature reached 118°. That record was tied in 2017.

 

This unseasonable heat will likely extend northward into southern Canada including Alberta and Saskatchewan. It remains uncertain whether this extreme air mass will impact the region at some point later in the month.

 

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.4°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.2°C for the week centered around June 2. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.65°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.30°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely prevail into at least mid-summer.

 

The SOI was +1.41 today.

 

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +1.086 today.

 

On June 10 the MJO was in Phase 2 at an amplitude of 0.136 (RMM). The June 9-adjusted amplitude was 0.512 (RMM).

 

In late April, the MJO moved through Phase 8 at an extreme amplitude (+3.000 or above). Only February 25, 1988 and March 18-19, 2015 had a higher amplitude at Phase 8. Both 1988 and 2015 went on to have an exceptionally warm July-August period. July-August 1988 had a mean temperature of 79.1°, which ranked 4th highest for that two-month period. July-August 2015 had a mean temperature of 78.9°, which ranked 5th highest for that two-month period. September 2015 was also the warmest September on record. The MJO's extreme passage through Phase 8 could provide the first hint of a hot summer.

 

With Phoenix very likely to reach 115° or above next week, that development could provide another hint of a warmer than normal summer. Since 1896, 76% of years that saw Phoenix reach 115° or above in June had a warmer than July-August. The ratio of top 30 July-August temperatures relative to bottom 30 temperatures was 6:1 in favor of the warmth. Overall, the ingredients continue to fall into place for a warmer than normal to potentially hot summer.

 

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 74% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal June (1991-2020 normal). June will likely finish with a mean temperature near 74.2° (2.2° above normal).

 

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It seems to me we may be nearing a crossroads. The models had earlier shown a greater likelihood of the change to much warmer conditions at the end of this month. Now they seem more concentrated on th

Could be pretty active later today   

Just some red meat for you animals.     CMC:     Because why not:  

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2 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

Tomorrow will be partly to mostly cloudy and again somewhat cooler than normal. However, some warming is likely on Monday. Overall, the first half of June will likely wind up much warmer than normal.

 

Out West, an extreme heatwave is now developing in the Southwest, including Phoenix. Late this afternoon, the temperature reached 110° in Phoenix for the first time this year. Last year saw a record 53 such days (prior record: 33, 2011). The least 110° days on record was 0, which was set in 1911. The average number of such days per year is 20.3 (1991-20 normals), which was an increase of 2.3 days from the 1981-10 normals.

 

The extreme heat will likely continue through much of next week. The temperature could reach 115° on one or more days, especially during the Monday-Friday period. For reference, Phoenix's daily records for the June 13-18 period are posted below.

 

Record high maximum temperatures:

 

June 13: 114°, 1896 and 1936
June 14: 115°, 1987
June 15: 115°, 1974
June 16: 115°, 1974
June 17: 114°, 2014
June 18: 115°, 1989 and 2015

 

Record high minimum temperatures:

 

June 13: 87°, 2018
June 14: 90°, 2018 (earliest 90° low on record)
June 15: 88°, 1936
June 16: 86°, 1988
June 17: 88°, 1986 and 2008
June 18: 88°, 2008

 

Phoenix will very likely see the earliest temperature above 115° on record. The existing record was set on June 19, 2016 when the temperature reached 118°. That record was tied in 2017.

 

This unseasonable heat will likely extend northward into southern Canada including Alberta and Saskatchewan. It remains uncertain whether this extreme air mass will impact the region at some point later in the month.

 

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.4°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.2°C for the week centered around June 2. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.65°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.30°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely prevail into at least mid-summer.

 

The SOI was +1.41 today.

 

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +1.086 today.

 

On June 10 the MJO was in Phase 2 at an amplitude of 0.136 (RMM). The June 9-adjusted amplitude was 0.512 (RMM).

 

In late April, the MJO moved through Phase 8 at an extreme amplitude (+3.000 or above). Only February 25, 1988 and March 18-19, 2015 had a higher amplitude at Phase 8. Both 1988 and 2015 went on to have an exceptionally warm July-August period. July-August 1988 had a mean temperature of 79.1°, which ranked 4th highest for that two-month period. July-August 2015 had a mean temperature of 78.9°, which ranked 5th highest for that two-month period. September 2015 was also the warmest September on record. The MJO's extreme passage through Phase 8 could provide the first hint of a hot summer.

 

With Phoenix very likely to reach 115° or above next week, that development could provide another hint of a warmer than normal summer. Since 1896, 76% of years that saw Phoenix reach 115° or above in June had a warmer than July-August. The ratio of top 30 July-August temperatures relative to bottom 30 temperatures was 6:1 in favor of the warmth. Overall, the ingredients continue to fall into place for a warmer than normal to potentially hot summer.

 

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 74% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal June (1991-2020 normal). June will likely finish with a mean temperature near 74.2° (2.2° above normal).

 

My father used to own property in Grand Junction, CO.  They are forecast to reach 107 this week.  The highest all-time reading there was 106, and records go back to 1893. so it is pretty extreme.

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Temperatures will likely remain somewhat below normal through midweek. Overall, the first half of June will likely wind up much warmer than normal. Afterward, a warming trend could develop.

 

Out West, an extreme heatwave is now under way in the Southwest, including Phoenix. High temperatures included:

 

Death Valley: 116°
Phoenix: 113°
Salt Lake City: 102° (old record: 100°, 1918)
Tucson: 112° (old record: 110°, 1924)
Winslow, AZ: 106° (old record: 104°, 1918)

 

The extreme heat will likely continue through much of next week. The temperature could reach 115° on one or more days, especially during tomorrow through Friday. For reference, Phoenix's daily records for the June 14-18 period are posted below.

 

Record high maximum temperatures:

 

June 14: 115°, 1987
June 15: 115°, 1974
June 16: 115°, 1974
June 17: 114°, 2014
June 18: 115°, 1989 and 2015

 

Record high minimum temperatures:

 

June 14: 90°, 2018 (earliest 90° low on record)
June 15: 88°, 1936
June 16: 86°, 1988
June 17: 88°, 1986 and 2008
June 18: 88°, 2008

 

Phoenix will very likely see the earliest temperature above 115° on record. The existing record was set on June 19, 2016 when the temperature reached 118°. That record was tied in 2017.

This unseasonable heat will likely extend northward into southern Canada including Alberta and Saskatchewan. It remains uncertain whether this extreme air mass will impact the region at some point later in the month.

 

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.4°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.2°C for the week centered around June 2. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.65°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.30°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely prevail into at least mid-summer.

 

The SOI was +4.12 today.

 

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +0.639 today.

 

On June 11 the MJO was in Phase 2 at an amplitude of 0.445 (RMM). The June 10-adjusted amplitude was 0.136 (RMM).

 

In late April, the MJO moved through Phase 8 at an extreme amplitude (+3.000 or above). Only February 25, 1988 and March 18-19, 2015 had a higher amplitude at Phase 8. Both 1988 and 2015 went on to have an exceptionally warm July-August period. July-August 1988 had a mean temperature of 79.1°, which ranked 4th highest for that two-month period. July-August 2015 had a mean temperature of 78.9°, which ranked 5th highest for that two-month period. September 2015 was also the warmest September on record. The MJO's extreme passage through Phase 8 could provide the first hint of a hot summer.

 

With Phoenix very likely to reach 115° or above next week, that development could provide another hint of a warmer than normal summer. Since 1896, 76% of years that saw Phoenix reach 115° or above in June had a warmer than July-August. The ratio of top 30 July-August temperatures relative to bottom 30 temperatures was 6:1 in favor of the warmth. Overall, the ingredients continue to fall into place for a warmer than normal to potentially hot summer.

 

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 75% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal June (1991-2020 normal). June will likely finish with a mean temperature near 74.2° (2.2° above normal).

 

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Monday afternoon and evening may pose an interesting severe threat across the region with decent forcing and shear overspreading the region, along with cooling mid levels. A cold front coming out of the Great Lakes / Ohio Valley and pre-frontal / lee trough will help focus the storms:

 

300wh.us_ne.png

500hv.us_ne (1).png

700th.us_ne.png

sfcthetae_b.us_ne.png

 

The HREF updraft strength and helicity products marginally highlight a threat with the cold front in the afternoon and early evening over eastern OH, northern WV and western PA, with a greater highlighting of the northern Mid Atlantic in the evening:

 

ud_024hmax_max.ne.f03600 (1).png

uh25_024hmax_max.ne.f03600 (1).png

 

CIPS analogs also highlight both threat areas, but especially like northern VA / MD / southern PA, perhaps into the rest of eastern PA, NY, and NJ:

 

PRALLC01_nam212F024.png

PRALLC10_nam212F024.png

 

This loop of the HREF mean CAPE, 0-6km shear and updraft helicity highlights both threats well...potentially an initial area in the afternoon from eastern OH into WV and PA, followed by a stronger signal in the evening over the northern Mid Atlantic. There's also a modest signal across Upstate NY:

 

Webp.net-gifmaker (32).gif

 

If the threat west of the Appalachians played out, cool and dry mid-levels along with the strong forcing and shear would support initial cells with wind and hail that grow into lines and bows with potential for swaths of damaging wind. This threat area is conditional on destabilizing quickly enough by early-mid afternoon, but it could be worth a slight risk for wind. Then in the northern Mid Atlantic, it's a timing thing. Will storms fire before sunset, and if they don't will the strong forcing offset nocturnal stabilization? If this threat pans out, a few initial supercells with some hail, wind, and perhaps a tornado would quickly grow into small bows given the strong flow and forcing. There could be a spin-up tornado threat with any robust bows. I feel like there's a good chance that eastern PA down into eastern MD and DE, perhaps including parts of NJ, get a slight risk from the SPC at some point...mainly for wind, but isolated large hail and perhaps a tornado or two are also possible. 

 

 

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Showers and thunderstorms are likely tonight. Tomorrow will be turn partly sunny and seasonably warm. Overall, the first half of June will likely wind up much warmer than normal. Afterward, a warming trend could develop.

 

Out West, an extreme heatwave continued in the Southwest, including Phoenix. High temperatures included:

 

Billings: 103° (old record: 98°, 1959) ***Hottest so early in the season***
Casper: 99° (old record: 96°, 2018)
Death Valley, CA: 118°
Denver: 98°
Flagstaff: 92° (tied record set in 1974)
Great Falls: 99° (old record: 98°, 1987)
Medicine Hat, AB: 99° (old record: 86°, 2009)
Phoenix: 113° (smoke shrouded the sun at times)
Salt Lake City: 103° (old record: 101°, 1974)
Tucson: 112° (old record: 111°, 1993)

 

The extreme heat will continue through much of this week. The temperature could reach 115° on multiple days in Phoenix, especially during tomorrow through Friday. For reference, Phoenix's daily records for the June 15-18 period are posted below.

 

Record high maximum temperatures:

 

June 15: 115°, 1974
June 16: 115°, 1974
June 17: 114°, 2014
June 18: 115°, 1989 and 2015

 

Record high minimum temperatures:

June 15: 88°, 1936
June 16: 86°, 1988
June 17: 88°, 1986 and 2008
June 18: 88°, 2008

 

Phoenix will very likely see the earliest temperature above 115° on record. The existing record was set on June 19, 2016 when the temperature reached 118°. That record was tied in 2017.

This unseasonable heat will extend northward into southern Canada including Alberta and Saskatchewan. It remains uncertain whether this extreme air mass will impact the region at some point later in the month.

 

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was 0.0°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was 0.0°C for the week centered around June 9. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.48°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.23°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely prevail into at least mid-summer.

 

The SOI was +16.24 today.

 

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +0.513 today.

 

On June 12 the MJO was in Phase 2 at an amplitude of 0.976 (RMM). The June 11-adjusted amplitude was 0.449 (RMM).

 

In late April, the MJO moved through Phase 8 at an extreme amplitude (+3.000 or above). Only February 25, 1988 and March 18-19, 2015 had a higher amplitude at Phase 8. Both 1988 and 2015 went on to have an exceptionally warm July-August period. July-August 1988 had a mean temperature of 79.1°, which ranked 4th highest for that two-month period. July-August 2015 had a mean temperature of 78.9°, which ranked 5th highest for that two-month period. September 2015 was also the warmest September on record. The MJO's extreme passage through Phase 8 could provide the first hint of a hot summer.

 

With Phoenix very likely to reach 115° or above this week, that development could provide another hint of a warmer than normal summer. Since 1896, 76% of years that saw Phoenix reach 115° or above in June had a warmer than July-August. The ratio of top 30 July-August temperatures relative to bottom 30 temperatures was 6:1 in favor of the warmth. Overall, the ingredients continue to fall into place for a warmer than normal to potentially hot summer.

 

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 76% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal June (1991-2020 normal). June will likely finish with a mean temperature near 74.2° (2.2° above normal).

 

 

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The first half of June was much warmer than normal in the Middle Atlantic and southern New England areas. New York City had a June 1-15 temperature anomaly of +3.4°.

Tomorrow and Thursday will be mainly sunny and slightly cooler than normal. Afterward, a warming trend will likely develop.

 

Out West, an extreme heatwave continued in the Southwest, including Phoenix. High temperatures included:

 

Billings: 105° (old record: 98°, 1987) ***Tied June record***
Casper: 101° (old record: 93°, 1946, 1959, and 1987) ***Earliest 100° reading on record***
Death Valley, CA: 124° (old record: 122°, 2000)
Denver: 101° (old record: 97°, 1952 and 1993)
Flagstaff: 94° (old record: 92°, 1974)
Medicine Hat, AB: 94° (old record: 84°, 2009)
Needles, CA: 121° (old record: 119°, 1940)
Phoenix: 115° (tied record set in 1974)
Salt Lake City: 107° (old record: 102°, 1974) ***Tied all-time record***
Tucson: 115° (old record: 110°, 1896) ***Earliest 115° reading on record***

 

The extreme heat will continue through much of this week. The temperature could reach 115° on multiple days in Phoenix, especially during tomorrow through Friday. For reference, Phoenix's daily records for the June 16-18 period are posted below.

 

Record high maximum temperatures:

 

June 16: 115°, 1896 and 1974
June 17: 114°, 2014
June 18: 115°, 1989 and 2015

 

Record high minimum temperatures:

June 16: 86°, 1988
June 17: 88°, 1986 and 2008
June 18: 88°, 2008

 

Phoenix will very likely see the earliest temperature above 115° on record. The existing record was set on June 19, 2016 when the temperature reached 118°. That record was tied in 2017.

This unseasonable heat will extend northward into southern Canada including Alberta and Saskatchewan. It remains uncertain whether this extreme air mass will impact the region at some point later in the month.

 

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was 0.0°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was 0.0°C for the week centered around June 9. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.48°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.23°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely prevail into at least mid-summer.

 

The SOI was +24.25 today.

 

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +0.980 today.

 

On June 13 the MJO was in Phase 2 at an amplitude of 1.268 (RMM). The June 12-adjusted amplitude was 0.973 (RMM).

 

In late April, the MJO moved through Phase 8 at an extreme amplitude (+3.000 or above). Only February 25, 1988 and March 18-19, 2015 had a higher amplitude at Phase 8. Both 1988 and 2015 went on to have an exceptionally warm July-August period. July-August 1988 had a mean temperature of 79.1°, which ranked 4th highest for that two-month period. July-August 2015 had a mean temperature of 78.9°, which ranked 5th highest for that two-month period. September 2015 was also the warmest September on record. The MJO's extreme passage through Phase 8 could provide the first hint of a hot summer.

 

With Phoenix very likely to reach 115° or above this week, that development could provide another hint of a warmer than normal summer. Since 1896, 76% of years that saw Phoenix reach 115° or above in June had a warmer than July-August. The ratio of top 30 July-August temperatures relative to bottom 30 temperatures was 6:1 in favor of the warmth. Overall, the ingredients continue to fall into place for a warmer than normal to potentially hot summer.

 

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 76% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal June (1991-2020 normal). June will likely finish with a mean temperature near 74.1° (2.1° above normal).

 

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Tomorrow will be mainly sunny and slightly cooler than normal. Afterward, a warming trend will likely develop as some of the heat baking the Southwest moves into the region. The temperature could reach or exceed 90° in parts of the region during the weekend.

 

Out West, an extreme heatwave continued in the Southwest, including Phoenix. High temperatures included:

 

Albuquerque: 100° (tied record set in 1980)
Blythe, CA: 113°
Casper: 96° (old record: 94°, 1988)
Death Valley, CA: 125°
Denver: 100° (old record: 96°, 2020)
Flagstaff: 92° (tied record set in 1940)
Las Vegas: 116° (old record: 114°, 1940)
Needles, CA: 118° (tied record set in 2000)
Phoenix: 115° (tied record set in 1896 and tied in 1974)
Salt Lake City: 97°
Tucson: 114° (old record: 109°, 1985 and 1988) ***5th consecutive record high temperature***

 

At Tucson, the temperature reached 110° or above for the fifth consecutive day. That ties June 24-28, 1990 for the second longest streak on record. Records go back to September 1894.

 

At Denver, the temperature reached 100° for the second consecutive day. This is the earliest two consecutive-day period on record where the temperature reached or exceeded 100° at Denver. The prior record was set during June 22-23, 2012.

 

The extreme heat will continue into the weekend. The temperature could reach 115° on multiple days in Phoenix during this time. For reference, Phoenix's daily records for the June 17-19 period are posted below.

 

Record high maximum temperatures:

 

June 17: 114°, 2014
June 18: 115°, 1989 and 2015
June 19: 118°, 2016 and 2017

 

Record high minimum temperatures:

 

June 17: 88°, 1986 and 2008
June 18: 88°, 2008
June 19: 86°, 1958 and 1959

 

Phoenix will very likely see the earliest temperature above 115° on record tomorrow. The existing record was set on June 19, 2016 when the temperature reached 118°. That record was tied in 2017.

 

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was 0.0°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was 0.0°C for the week centered around June 9. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.48°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.23°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely prevail into at least mid-summer.

 

The SOI was +17.15 today.

 

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +1.172 today.

 

On June 14 the MJO was in Phase 2 at an amplitude of 1.290 (RMM). The June 13-adjusted amplitude was 1.265 (RMM).

 

In late April, the MJO moved through Phase 8 at an extreme amplitude (+3.000 or above). Only February 25, 1988 and March 18-19, 2015 had a higher amplitude at Phase 8. Both 1988 and 2015 went on to have an exceptionally warm July-August period. July-August 1988 had a mean temperature of 79.1°, which ranked 4th highest for that two-month period. July-August 2015 had a mean temperature of 78.9°, which ranked 5th highest for that two-month period. September 2015 was also the warmest September on record. The MJO's extreme passage through Phase 8 could provide the first hint of a hot summer.

 

Since 1896, 76% of years that saw Phoenix reach 115° or above in June, as occurred this year, had a warmer than July-August in the Middle Atlantic region. The ratio of top 30 July-August temperatures relative to bottom 30 temperatures was 6:1 in favor of the warmth. Overall, the ingredients continue to fall into place for a warmer than normal to potentially hot summer.

 

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 74% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal June (1991-2020 normal). June will likely finish with a mean temperature near 74.0° (2.0° above normal).

 

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A warming trend will develop starting tomorrow as some of the heat baking the Southwest begins to move into the region. The temperature could reach or exceed 90° in parts of the region during the weekend.

 

Out West, an extreme heatwave continued in the Southwest, including Phoenix. High temperatures included:

 

Blythe, CA: 119° (old record: 116°, 2015)
Bullhead City, AZ: 120° (old record: 117°, 2008)
Casper: 94°
Death Valley, CA: 128° (old record: 122°, 1917) ***tied June record***
Denver: 100° (old record: 98°, 2012) ***3rd consecutive 100° day***
Flagstaff: 92° (tied record set in 1940)
Las Vegas: 114° (old record: 113°, 1940)
Needles: 120° (tied record set in 1917)
Palm Springs: 123° (old record: 116°, 1961) ***new June record; tied all-time record***
Phoenix: 118° (old record: 114°, 1896 and 2015)
Sacramento: 107° (old record: 103°, 1963)
Tucson: 112° (old record: 109°, 1917, 1985, 1989, 2008, and 2015)

 

At Phoenix, the temperature hit 118°. That is the earliest 116° or above temperature on record. The previous record was set on June 19, 2016 when the temperature also reached 118°. That record was tied in 2017.

 

At Tucson, the temperature reached 110° or above for the sixth consecutive day. That tied June 24-29, 1994 for the longest streak on record. Records go back to September 1894. Today was also the sixth consecutive record high temperature at Tucson.

 

The Tucson NWS office reported that the temperature reached 100° at Tucson at 8:14 am MST. That is the second earliest such reading, behind June 20, 2017 when the temperature reached 100° at 8:02 am.  

 

The extreme heat will continue into the weekend. The temperature could reach 115° on multiple days in Phoenix during this time. For reference, Phoenix's daily records for the June 18-19 period are posted below.

 

Record high maximum temperatures:

 

June 18: 115°, 1989 and 2015
June 19: 118°, 2016 and 2017

 

Record high minimum temperatures:

 

June 18: 88°, 2008
June 19: 86°, 1958 and 1959

 

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was 0.0°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was 0.0°C for the week centered around June 9. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.48°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.23°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely prevail into at least mid-summer.

 

The SOI was +9.28 today.

 

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +0.921 today.

 

On June 15 the MJO was in Phase 2 at an amplitude of 1.344 (RMM). The June 14-adjusted amplitude was 1.286 (RMM).

 

In late April, the MJO moved through Phase 8 at an extreme amplitude (+3.000 or above). Only February 25, 1988 and March 18-19, 2015 had a higher amplitude at Phase 8. Both 1988 and 2015 went on to have an exceptionally warm July-August period. July-August 1988 had a mean temperature of 79.1°, which ranked 4th highest for that two-month period. July-August 2015 had a mean temperature of 78.9°, which ranked 5th highest for that two-month period. September 2015 was also the warmest September on record. The MJO's extreme passage through Phase 8 could provide the first hint of a hot summer.

 

Since 1896, 76% of years that saw Phoenix reach 115° or above in June, as occurred this year, had a warmer than July-August in the Middle Atlantic region. The ratio of top 30 July-August temperatures relative to bottom 30 temperatures was 6:1 in favor of the warmth. Overall, the ingredients continue to fall into place for a warmer than normal to potentially hot summer.

 

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 74% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal June (1991-2020 normal). June will likely finish with a mean temperature near 73.8° (1.8° above normal).

 

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This weekend will be variably cloudy and very warm. The temperature could reach or exceed 90° in parts of the region. Some areas could see a shower or thunderstorm.

Out West, an extreme heatwave continued in the Southwest, including Phoenix. High temperatures included:

 

Blythe, CA: 119° (tied record set in 2015)
Bullhead City, AZ: 120° (old record: 118°, 1985)
Death Valley, CA: 124° (tied record set in 2017)
Flagstaff: 91°
Las Vegas: 113°
Needles, CA: 121° (old record: 119°, 2017)
Palm Springs, CA: 119° (old record: 117°, 2017)
Phoenix: 117° (old record: 115°, 1989 and 2015)
Sacramento: 109° (old record: 106°, 2017)
Tucson: 112°

 

Tucson reached 110° or above for the 7th consecutive day with a high temperature of 112°. That broke the old record of 6 consecutive days, which was set during June 24-29, 1994.

Phoenix recorded a record-tying 4th consecutive day on which the temperature reached or exceeded 115°. This is also the earliest such stretch on record. The prior record was June 19-22, 1968. The most recent 4-day stretch occurred during 2020 (the only year with 2 such cases) during August 16-19, 2020.

 

Death Valley recorded its 4th consecutive day with a high temperature of 124° or above. That was the earliest such streak on record. The prior record was June 26-29, 1994. The 4-day average high temperature was 125.3°. The previous earliest 4-day high temperature average of 125° or above occurred during June 22-25, 2017.

 

The extreme heat will continue into the weekend. The temperature could reach 115° tomorrow and possibly Sunday in Phoenix. Phoenix's daily records for the June 19 are posted below.

 

Record high maximum temperatures:

 

June 19: 118°, 2016 and 2017

 

Record high minimum temperatures:

June 19: 86°, 1958 and 1959

 

In large part on account of Phoenix's ongoing extreme heat event, there is an implied 55% probability that June 2021 will become Phoenix's warmest June on record with a mean temperature near or just above 95.0°. The existing record of 94.8° was set in 2013 and tied in 2016.

 

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was 0.0°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was 0.0°C for the week centered around June 9. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.48°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.23°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely prevail into at least mid-summer.

 

The SOI was +2.04 today.

 

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +0.474 today.

 

On June 16 the MJO was in Phase 2 at an amplitude of 1.459 (RMM). The June 15-adjusted amplitude was 1.344 (RMM).

 

In late April, the MJO moved through Phase 8 at an extreme amplitude (+3.000 or above). Only February 25, 1988 and March 18-19, 2015 had a higher amplitude at Phase 8. Both 1988 and 2015 went on to have an exceptionally warm July-August period. July-August 1988 had a mean temperature of 79.1°, which ranked 4th highest for that two-month period. July-August 2015 had a mean temperature of 78.9°, which ranked 5th highest for that two-month period. September 2015 was also the warmest September on record. The MJO's extreme passage through Phase 8 could provide the first hint of a hot summer.

 

Since 1896, 76% of years that saw Phoenix reach 115° or above in June, as occurred this year, had a warmer than July-August in the Middle Atlantic region. The ratio of top 30 July-August temperatures relative to bottom 30 temperatures was 6:1 in favor of the warmth. Overall, the ingredients continue to fall into place for a warmer than normal to potentially hot summer.

 

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 81% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal June (1991-2020 normal). June will likely finish with a mean temperature near 73.9° (1.9° above normal).

 

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1 hour ago, donsutherland1 said:

Since 1896, 76% of years that saw Phoenix reach 115° or above in June, as occurred this year, had a warmer than July-August in the Middle Atlantic region. The ratio of top 30 July-August temperatures relative to bottom 30 temperatures was 6:1 in favor of the warmth. Overall, the ingredients continue to fall into place for a warmer than normal to potentially hot summer.

 

Seems about right.  Month after month of above normal.  Go above normal all the time and you will be correct.

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4 hours ago, OceanSnow said:

 

Seems about right.  Month after month of above normal.  Go above normal all the time and you will be correct.

 

I think the argument for a very warm or hot summer is stronger over the mid Atlantic region than over the northeastern states where I feel from NYC points north and east will often be on the edge of the hot humid air mass and sometimes in the ring of fire that borders it. As summer progresses I think we can see more very warm to hot weather up this way come late July or August. 

WX/PT

 

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10 hours ago, OceanSnow said:

 

Seems about right.  Month after month of above normal.  Go above normal all the time and you will be correct.

The tendency for warmth was even more pronounced than the general ongoing rise in temperatures. In numerous past cases, the ridges hooked up allowing for one or more episodes of far above normal heat.

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Temperatures rose into the upper 80s and lower 90s in the region today. 90° or above temperatures were reported at Boston (91°), New York City-LGA (91°), Newark (93°), and Philadelphia (90°).

 

Tomorrow will be another variably cloudy and very warm day. The temperature could reach or exceed 90° in parts of the region. Some areas could see a shower or thunderstorm. It will likely be somewhat cooler on Monday with a greater risk of some showers and thundershowers as Claudette passes well south of the region.

 

Out West, an extreme heatwave continued in the Southwest, including Phoenix. High temperatures included:

 

Blythe, CA: 118°
Bullhead City, AZ: 118°
Death Valley, CA: 125° (tied record set in 2017)
Las Vegas: 114° (tied record set in 1940)
Needles, CA: 121°
Palm Springs, CA: 119° (tied record set in 2016 and tied in 2017)
Phoenix: 116°
Sacramento: 102°
Tucson: 113°

 

Today, Phoenix recorded its 5th consecutive 115° or above temperature. That broke the record for most such days, which was 4. That record was set during June 19-22, 1968 and tied on June 25-28, 1979, June 25-28, 1990, July 26-29, 1995, July 28-31, 2020, and August 16-19, 2020. Tucson further extended its record streak of 110° or above days to 8. Death Valley recorded a June record-tying 5th consecutive day on which the temperature reached 124° or above. The record was set during June 26-30, 1994.

 

Tomorrow will be another very hot day in the Southwest before some modest cooling takes place. Severe heat could return by the latter part of the week.

 

In large part on account of Phoenix's concluding extreme heat event, there is an implied 66% probability that June 2021 will become Phoenix's warmest June on record with a mean temperature above 95.0°. The existing record of 94.8° was set in 2013 and tied in 2016.

 

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was 0.0°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was 0.0°C for the week centered around June 9. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.48°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.23°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely prevail into at least mid-summer.

 

The SOI was -7.94 today.

 

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +0.145 today.

 

On June 17 the MJO was in Phase 2 at an amplitude of 1.200 (RMM). The June 16-adjusted amplitude was 1.457 (RMM).

 

In late April, the MJO moved through Phase 8 at an extreme amplitude (+3.000 or above). Only February 25, 1988 and March 18-19, 2015 had a higher amplitude at Phase 8. Both 1988 and 2015 went on to have an exceptionally warm July-August period. July-August 1988 had a mean temperature of 79.1°, which ranked 4th highest for that two-month period. July-August 2015 had a mean temperature of 78.9°, which ranked 5th highest for that two-month period. September 2015 was also the warmest September on record. The MJO's extreme passage through Phase 8 could provide the first hint of a hot summer.

 

Since 1896, 76% of years that saw Phoenix reach 115° or above in June, as occurred this year, had a warmer than July-August in the Middle Atlantic region. The ratio of top 30 July-August temperatures relative to bottom 30 temperatures was 6:1 in favor of the warmth. Overall, the ingredients continue to fall into place for a warmer than normal to potentially hot summer.

 

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 76% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal June (1991-2020 normal). June will likely finish with a mean temperature near 73.8° (1.8° above normal).

 

 

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Mount Holly has similar thoughts. 

 

Upton:

Friday could be interesting meteorologically speaking. Global models
are beginning to depict a broad low pressure system near North
Carolina forming off the decaying front from earlier in the week.
This inverted trough rides the synoptic flow north nearing Long
Island Friday. With it precipitable water values increase to around
1.5-1.7 inches. Depending on the nature of the system and its
proximity, southern New York could see increased rain chances for
Friday.

Attention shifts over the weekend to the trough and frontal system
deepening near the Ohio River valley. This could be a fairly a
traditional frontal system with CAPE values around 500-1000 J/kg and
unidirectional shear meaning that strong to severe thunderstorms may
be possible. The exact timing remains uncertain, but current
guidance is hinting towards a Sunday into Monday timeframe.
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