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Spring/Summer 2021 Weather Threats Discussion


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A number of cities reached the lower 90s this afternoon. 90° readings included: Baltimore: 93°; Harrisburg: 91°; Newark: 90°; and, Philadelphia: 90°.

 

90° Days for Select Cities (through June 20):

 

Albany: 1 (2020: 13 days; 5-Year Average: 13.6 days)
Allentown: 5 (2020: 24 days; 5-Year Average: 27.6 days)
Baltimore: 9 (2020: 46 days; 5-Year Average: 44.6 days)
Boston: 8 (2020: 14 days; 5-Year Average: 17.2 days)
Bridgeport: 2 (2020: 11 days; 5-Year Average: 13.4 days)
Burlington: 4 (2020: 20 days; 5-Year Average: 13.0 days)
Harrisburg: 6 (2020: 35 days; 5-Year Average: 30.6 days)
Hartford: 7 (2020: 39 days; 5-Year Average: 29.0 days)
Islip: 2 (2020: 8 days; 5-Year Average: 9.4 days)
New York City-JFK: 3 (2020: 12 days; 5-Year Average: 10.2 days)
New York City-LGA: 6 (2020: 34 days; 5-Year Average: 29.4 days)
New York City-NYC: 4 (2020: 20 days; 5-Year Average: 18.2 days)
Newark: 11 (2020: 31 days; 5-Year Average: 31.2 days)
Philadelphia: 8 (2020: 36 days; 5-Year Average: 34.6 days)
Scranton: 5 (2020: 25 days; 5-Year Average: 16.4 days)
Washington, DC: 7 (2020: 46 days; 5-Year Average: 50.8 days)

 

New York City-Newark Average: 6 (2020: 22 days)
...Expected: 7 (based on regression equation tied to JFK-LGA-EWR data)

 

It will likely be somewhat cooler tomorrow with a greater risk of some showers and thundershowers as Claudette passes well south of the region. The end of the week and coming weekend could be unsettled.

 

Out West, an extreme heatwave began to ease in the Southwest. High temperatures included:

 

Blythe, CA: 119°
Bullhead City, AZ: 117°
Death Valley, CA: 124° ***June record 6th consecutive 124° day***
Las Vegas: 112°
Needles, CA: 118°
Palm Springs, CA: 118°
Phoenix: 115° ***Record 6th consecutive 115° day***
Tucson: 109°

 

In large part on account of Phoenix's concluding extreme heat event, there is an implied 69% probability that June 2021 will become Phoenix's warmest June on record with a mean temperature above 95.0°. The existing record of 94.8° was set in 2013 and tied in 2016.

 

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was 0.0°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was 0.0°C for the week centered around June 9. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.48°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.23°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely prevail into at least mid-summer.

 

The SOI was -16.38 today.

 

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +0.474 today.

 

On June 18 the MJO was in Phase 2 at an amplitude of 1.073 (RMM). The June 17-adjusted amplitude was 1.198 (RMM).

 

In late April, the MJO moved through Phase 8 at an extreme amplitude (+3.000 or above). Only February 25, 1988 and March 18-19, 2015 had a higher amplitude at Phase 8. Both 1988 and 2015 went on to have an exceptionally warm July-August period. July-August 1988 had a mean temperature of 79.1°, which ranked 4th highest for that two-month period. July-August 2015 had a mean temperature of 78.9°, which ranked 5th highest for that two-month period. September 2015 was also the warmest September on record. The MJO's extreme passage through Phase 8 could provide the first hint of a hot summer.

 

Since 1896, 76% of years that saw Phoenix reach 115° or above in June, as occurred this year, had a warmer than July-August in the Middle Atlantic region. The ratio of top 30 July-August temperatures relative to bottom 30 temperatures was 6:1 in favor of the warmth. Overall, the ingredients continue to fall into place for a warmer than normal to potentially hot summer.

 

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 81% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal June (1991-2020 normal). June will likely finish with a mean temperature near 73.7° (1.7° above normal).

 

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It seems to me we may be nearing a crossroads. The models had earlier shown a greater likelihood of the change to much warmer conditions at the end of this month. Now they seem more concentrated on th

Could be pretty active later today   

Just some red meat for you animals.     CMC:     Because why not:  

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i imagine putting new shingles as an apprentice will be pretty difficult in tomorrows heat and humidity. I figured it was time to start a career after graduation.

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The end of this week into the end of the month looks quite stormy for most of us. As we head into July the pattern which earlier looked nice now looks to favor well above normal temperatures and very high humidity levels. The details *may* depend on what becomes of a tropical systems some of the models are moving out of the Gulf of Mexico. Since this system isn't even yet formed, uncertainty which would be high during that time-frame anyway, is even higher.

 

For the rest of this month Central Park could pick up another one or two more 90+ degree days but if they occur it would most likely be on the last day or two of the month.

WX/PT

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Parts of the region again saw the temperature reach or exceed 90°. The heat will now depart through the remainder of the week.  

 

Tomorrow will be variably cloudy and noticeably cooler. Showers and thundershowers are likely. Wednesday and Thursday should feature abundant sunshine, low humidity, and refreshing temperatures. The end of the week and coming weekend could be unsettled.

 

In large part on account of Phoenix's recent extreme heat event, there is an implied 70% probability that June 2021 will become Phoenix's warmest June on record with a mean temperature above 95.0°. The existing record of 94.8° was set in 2013 and tied in 2016.

 

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.4°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.5°C for the week centered around June 16. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.30°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.25°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely prevail into at least mid-summer.

 

The SOI was -13.71 today.

 

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was -0.361 today.

 

On June 19 the MJO was in Phase 2 at an amplitude of 0.809 (RMM). The June 18-adjusted amplitude was 1.068 (RMM).

 

In late April, the MJO moved through Phase 8 at an extreme amplitude (+3.000 or above). Only February 25, 1988 and March 18-19, 2015 had a higher amplitude at Phase 8. Both 1988 and 2015 went on to have an exceptionally warm July-August period. July-August 1988 had a mean temperature of 79.1°, which ranked 4th highest for that two-month period. July-August 2015 had a mean temperature of 78.9°, which ranked 5th highest for that two-month period. September 2015 was also the warmest September on record. The MJO's extreme passage through Phase 8 could provide the first hint of a hot summer.

 

Since 1896, 76% of years that saw Phoenix reach 115° or above in June, as occurred this year, had a warmer than July-August in the Middle Atlantic region. The ratio of top 30 July-August temperatures relative to bottom 30 temperatures was 6:1 in favor of the warmth. Overall, the ingredients continue to fall into place for a warmer than normal to potentially hot summer.

 

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 80% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal June (1991-2020 normal). June will likely finish with a mean temperature near 73.5° (1.5° above normal).

 

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Tomorrow and Thursday should feature abundant sunshine, low humidity, and refreshing temperatures. The end of the week and coming weekend will turn warmer. No excessive precipitation appears likely through the weekend.

 

In the Pacific Northwest, an extreme to possibly historic heatwave could develop starting late this week. Monthly and possibly all-time record high temperatures in cities, including Seattle and Portland, could be challenged or broken.

 

Climate change has increased the frequency, magnitude, and duration of extreme heat events in the United States and worldwide. Further increases are likely in coming decades as the world's climate continues to warm.

 

In large part on account of Phoenix's recent extreme heat event, there is an implied 73% probability that June 2021 will become Phoenix's warmest June on record with a mean temperature above 95.0°. The existing record of 94.8° was set in 2013 and tied in 2016.

 

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.4°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.5°C for the week centered around June 16. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.30°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.25°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely prevail into at least mid-summer.

 

The SOI was +1.05 today.

 

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was -0.182 today.

 

On June 20 the MJO was in Phase 1 at an amplitude of 0.736 (RMM). The June 19-adjusted amplitude was 0.800 (RMM).

 

In late April, the MJO moved through Phase 8 at an extreme amplitude (+3.000 or above). Only February 25, 1988 and March 18-19, 2015 had a higher amplitude at Phase 8. Both 1988 and 2015 went on to have an exceptionally warm July-August period. July-August 1988 had a mean temperature of 79.1°, which ranked 4th highest for that two-month period. July-August 2015 had a mean temperature of 78.9°, which ranked 5th highest for that two-month period. September 2015 was also the warmest September on record. The MJO's extreme passage through Phase 8 could provide the first hint of a hot summer.

 

Since 1896, 76% of years that saw Phoenix reach 115° or above in June, as occurred this year, had a warmer than July-August in the Middle Atlantic region. The ratio of top 30 July-August temperatures relative to bottom 30 temperatures was 6:1 in favor of the warmth. Overall, the ingredients continue to fall into place for a warmer than normal to potentially hot summer.

 

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 86% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal June (1991-2020 normal). June will likely finish with a mean temperature near 73.6° (1.6° above normal).

 

 

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After a cool start, today saw temperatures rise into the middle and upper 70s. Out West, Phoenix experienced the second largest deluge on record for June 23, as showers and thundershowers delivered 0.17" of rain.

 

Tomorrow will again feature abundant sunshine, low humidity, and refreshing temperatures in the Middle Atlantic and southern New England areas. The end of the week and coming weekend will turn warmer. No excessive precipitation appears likely through the weekend.

 

In the Pacific Northwest, an extreme to possibly historic heatwave could develop starting late this week. Monthly and possibly all-time record high temperatures in cities, including Seattle and Portland, could be challenged or broken.

 

Records for select cities:

 

Portland:
June 26: 102°, 2006
June 28: 98°, 2000
June 29: 100°, 2008

 

June record: 102°
All-time record: 107°

 

Seattle:
June 26: 90°, 2006
June 27: 92°, 2015
June 28: 91°, 1995 and 2008

 

June record: 96°
All-time record: 103°

 

Spokane:
June 26: 100°, 1925
June 27: 102°, 2015
June 28: 105°, 2015

 

June record: 105°
All-time record: 108°

 

Climate change has increased the frequency, magnitude, and duration of extreme heat events in the United States and worldwide. Further increases are likely in coming decades as the world's climate continues to warm.

 

During the 1971-00 period, there was a statistical 0.9% probability that the temperature would reach or exceed 90° during June 26-28. For the 1991-20 period, that figure had increased to 2.0%. Actual outcomes saw Seattle record 90° temperatures on 1.1% of days within that period during 1971-00 and 4.4% during the 1991-20 timeframe. For Portland, the statistical probability of a 90° day during the June 26-28 period was 6.2% during the 1971-00 period and 10.4% during the 1991-20 period. The actual outcomes were 6.6% during the 1971-00 period and 12.2% during the 1991-20 period. That actual outcomes exceeded statistical outcomes is consistent with ongoing warming.   

 

In large part on account of Phoenix's recent extreme heat event, there is an implied 75% probability that June 2021 will become Phoenix's warmest June on record with a mean temperature near 95.5°. The existing record of 94.8° was set in 2013 and tied in 2016.

 

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.4°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.5°C for the week centered around June 16. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.30°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.25°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely prevail into at least mid-summer.

 

The SOI was +6.75 today.

 

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was -0.549 today.

 

On June 21 the MJO was in Phase 1 at an amplitude of 0.868 (RMM). The June 20-adjusted amplitude was 0.737 (RMM).

 

In late April, the MJO moved through Phase 8 at an extreme amplitude (+3.000 or above). Only February 25, 1988 and March 18-19, 2015 had a higher amplitude at Phase 8. Both 1988 and 2015 went on to have an exceptionally warm July-August period. July-August 1988 had a mean temperature of 79.1°, which ranked 4th highest for that two-month period. July-August 2015 had a mean temperature of 78.9°, which ranked 5th highest for that two-month period. September 2015 was also the warmest September on record. The MJO's extreme passage through Phase 8 could provide the first hint of a hot summer.

 

Since 1896, 76% of years that saw Phoenix reach 115° or above in June, as occurred this year, had a warmer than July-August in the Middle Atlantic region. The ratio of top 30 July-August temperatures relative to bottom 30 temperatures was 6:1 in favor of the warmth. Overall, the ingredients continue to fall into place for a warmer than normal to potentially hot summer.

 

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 89% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal June (1991-2020 normal). June will likely finish with a mean temperature near 73.6° (1.6° above normal).

 

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GFS tonight and over the passed several runs really depicting an uncomfortably oppressive end of June and beginning of July. Warmth and humidity with some hot days thrown in, plenty of thunderstorm activity thrown in.  Dew points in the mid-upper 70s around here might be on the way. Enjoy the conditions we now have!

WX/PT

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16 minutes ago, Wxoutlooksblog said:

GFS tonight and over the passed several runs really depicting an uncomfortably oppressive end of June and beginning of July. Warmth and humidity with some hot days thrown in, plenty of thunderstorm activity thrown in.  Dew points in the mid-upper 70s around here might be on the way. Enjoy the conditions we now have!

WX/PT

It looks like we start to warm things back up on Friday with the weekend looking hot, humid and sticky with temps in the upper 80's to low (maybe mid) 90's which should extend into the beginning of next week and possibly beyond. Looks like 3 H weather is on the way.

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8 hours ago, Rtd208 said:

It looks like we start to warm things back up on Friday with the weekend looking hot, humid and sticky with temps in the upper 80's to low (maybe mid) 90's which should extend into the beginning of next week and possibly beyond. Looks like 3 H weather is on the way.

I think the best shot at hitting 90 in NYC is Monday and Tuesday but we'll see. It could change around from day to day per the amount of clouds/haze showers and storms. The models will go back and forth with the details until 24-36 hours in advance. The weekend looks to me to be mid-upper 80s.

WX/PT

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37 minutes ago, Wxoutlooksblog said:

I think the best shot at hitting 90 in NYC is Monday and Tuesday but we'll see. It could change around from day to day per the amount of clouds/haze showers and storms. The models will go back and forth with the details until 24-36 hours in advance. The weekend looks to me to be mid-upper 80s.

WX/PT

Winds are too southerly this weekend for most locations in the immediate NYC Metro to hit 90. The surface HP is too far to the north initially. Early next week it settles into a better position.

WX/PT

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2 hours ago, Wxoutlooksblog said:

Winds are too southerly this weekend for most locations in the immediate NYC Metro to hit 90. The surface HP is too far to the north initially. Early next week it settles into a better position.

WX/PT

Maybe a heatwave Mon Tues Wed.

WX/PT

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57 minutes ago, Wxoutlooksblog said:

Maybe a heatwave Mon Tues Wed.

WX/PT

Along with at least pulse severe threats, maybe something more organized.

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Tomorrow will be partly sunny and somewhat warmer. This coming weekend will turn much warmer. No excessive precipitation appears likely through the weekend.

 

In the Pacific Northwest, an extreme to possibly historic heatwave will develop starting tomorrow. Monthly and possibly all-time record high temperatures in cities, including Seattle and Portland, could be challenged or broken. The extreme heat will extend into parts of Canada, including British Columbia.

 

Records for select cities:

 

Portland:
June 26: 102°, 2006
June 28: 98°, 2000
June 29: 100°, 2008

 

June record: 102°
All-time record: 107°

 

Seattle:
June 26: 90°, 2006
June 27: 92°, 2015
June 28: 91°, 1995 and 2008

 

June record: 96°
All-time record: 103°

 

Spokane:
June 26: 100°, 1925
June 27: 102°, 2015
June 28: 105°, 2015

 

June record: 105°
All-time record: 108°

 

Climate change has increased the frequency, magnitude, and duration of extreme heat events in the United States and worldwide. Further increases are likely in coming decades as the world's climate continues to warm.

 

During the 1971-00 period, there was a statistical 0.9% probability that the temperature would reach or exceed 90° during June 26-28. For the 1991-20 period, that figure had increased to 2.0%. Actual outcomes saw Seattle record 90° temperatures on 1.1% of days within that period during 1971-00 and 4.4% during the 1991-20 timeframe. For Portland, the statistical probability of a 90° day during the June 26-28 period was 6.2% during the 1971-00 period and 10.4% during the 1991-20 period. The actual outcomes were 6.6% during the 1971-00 period and 12.2% during the 1991-20 period. That actual outcomes exceeded statistical outcomes is consistent with ongoing warming.   

 

In large part on account of Phoenix's recent extreme heat event, there is an implied 79% probability that June 2021 will become Phoenix's warmest June on record with a mean temperature near 95.1°. The existing record of 94.8° was set in 2013 and tied in 2016.

 

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.4°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.5°C for the week centered around June 16. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.30°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.25°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely prevail into at least mid-summer.

 

The SOI was +14.83 today.

 

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was -0.548 today.

 

On June 22 the MJO was in Phase 1 at an amplitude of 1.206 (RMM). The June 21-adjusted amplitude was 0.876 (RMM).

 

In late April, the MJO moved through Phase 8 at an extreme amplitude (+3.000 or above). Only February 25, 1988 and March 18-19, 2015 had a higher amplitude at Phase 8. Both 1988 and 2015 went on to have an exceptionally warm July-August period. July-August 1988 had a mean temperature of 79.1°, which ranked 4th highest for that two-month period. July-August 2015 had a mean temperature of 78.9°, which ranked 5th highest for that two-month period. September 2015 was also the warmest September on record. The MJO's extreme passage through Phase 8 could provide the first hint of a hot summer.

 

Since 1896, 76% of years that saw Phoenix reach 115° or above in June, as occurred this year, had a warmer than July-August in the Middle Atlantic region. The ratio of top 30 July-August temperatures relative to bottom 30 temperatures was 6:1 in favor of the warmth. Overall, the ingredients continue to fall into place for a warmer than normal to potentially hot summer.

 

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 96% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal June (1991-2020 normal). June will likely finish with a mean temperature near 73.8° (1.8° above normal).

 

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Throwing out some high temp numbers for my location beginning on Sunday thru next Thursday and see where I land.

Sunday 6/27: 92

Monday 6/28: 94

Tuesday 6/29: 97

Wednesday 6/30: 95

Thursday 7/1: 92

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19 minutes ago, Rtd208 said:

Throwing out some high temp numbers for my location beginning on Sunday thru next Thursday and see where I land.

Sunday 6/27: 92

Monday 6/28: 94

Tuesday 6/29: 97

Wednesday 6/30: 95

Thursday 7/1: 92

I'll play.  Our areas are generally similar.  

Sunday: 88

Monday: 92

Tuesday: 94

Wed: 91

Thu: 93

 

I could see Tue-Wed turning out 3-5 deg higher than I am forecasting, but there could be clouds and convection and I like to be conservative at this range.

Also, readings are for accurate locations, not EWR, lol.

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3 hours ago, Analog96 said:

I'll play.  Our areas are generally similar.  

Sunday: 88

Monday: 92

Tuesday: 94

Wed: 91

Thu: 93

 

I could see Tue-Wed turning out 3-5 deg higher than I am forecasting, but there could be clouds and convection and I like to be conservative at this range.

Also, readings are for accurate locations, not EWR, lol.

Heading down to Avalon tomorrow.  Your thoughts on temps for the south jersey beach?  I love it hot 

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