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Spring/Summer 2021 Weather Threats Discussion


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1 hour ago, Rtd208 said:

We could potentially see a few inches of rain late week although we have seen some instances where the models have been overdone precipitation wise so we'll see. Hopefully this holds.

OK I’ll say it .Where was this in January😬

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Just some red meat for you animals.     CMC:     Because why not:  

Lol we needed this Day 6-10 setup a month ago     

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Tomorrow will be mainly cloudy with rain. It will be unseasonably cool with temperatures limited mainly to the lower 50s.

 

The record-breaking cold air mass has now moved from Alaska into Canada's Yukon Territory. Numerous daily record low temperatures were set. Records included:

 

Carmacks: -30° (old record: -6°, 2014)
Dawson: -20° (old record: -18°, 1986)
Faro: -25° (old record: -13°, 1986)
Mayo: -27° (old record: -4°, 1966)
Old Crow: -33° (old record: -30°, 1986)
Teslin: -17° (old record: -3°, 1986)
Watson Lake: -16° (old record: -9°, 2020)
Whitehorse: -19° (old record: -13°, 1986)

 

That unseasonably cold air mass will move into the Plains States this week and then into the Southeast toward or by the weekend. The coldest air will likely stay away from the region, but a small piece of this cold air could eventually move across parts of the region. As a result, temperatures will likely continue to top out mainly in the upper 50s and lower 60s with perhaps a few colder days through April 20.

 

The closing week of April could turn noticeably warmer. Since 1974, there were 7 cases where the MJO reached Phase 6 at an amplitude of 1.500 or above during April 5-15, as was the case this year. Only 1981 had an April 20-30 maximum temperature below 80° (75°). The average highest figure for such cases was 81.3°. Therefore, it is more likely than not that April 2021 will have a maximum monthly temperature of 80° or above.

 

Up north, excessive warmth will continue in northeastern Canada where some record high temperatures will be possible through tomorrow.

 

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -1.1°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.5°C for the week centered around March 31. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.25°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.63°C. La Niña conditions will likely give way to neutral-cool ENSO conditions as the spring progresses.

 

The SOI was +9.08 today.

 

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was -0.285 today.

 

On April 9 the MJO was in Phase 6 at an amplitude of 1.989(RMM). The April 8-adjusted amplitude was 2.076 (RMM).

 

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 62% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal April. April will likely finish with a mean temperature near 54.3° (1.3° above normal).

 

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8 minutes ago, WxLover said:

What in the world...

90215CA1-B78B-418B-9BBC-3B8CA132B32C.png

EC0610EA-479C-4C64-89AF-1FD112725B41.png

 

My thoughts exactly especially here in Liberty NY right where that 13 inch number is and at 1,500 feet in elevation

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