Jump to content

2021 Tracking the Tropics Thread


Recommended Posts

Model consensus favors an active season.  IMME is the International MultiModel Ensemble which includes ECMWF, UKMET, CMCC (Italian model), DWD (German model), JMA and CFS models.
 

 

Link to post
Share on other sites
  • Replies 65
  • Created
  • Last Reply

Top Posters In This Topic

Top Posters In This Topic

Popular Posts

A potential wild-card is the rapid development of an "Atlantic Nino" (well above normal temps in the equatorial Atlantic south of the west African coast) in the past few weeks.  If this feature persis

Posted Images


MDR is currently running near to slightly cooler than normal, but has warmed overall in the past month. 

1999 also featured a cooler MDR in the spring-early summer and is currently a leading analog to this year.

 

30 day change.gif

1999 SST analog.png

Link to post
Share on other sites
On 5/13/2021 at 5:18 PM, Yaakov said:

A potential wild-card is the rapid development of an "Atlantic Nino" (well above normal temps in the equatorial Atlantic south of the west African coast) in the past few weeks.  If this feature persists into the summer, it could put a damper on MDR activity east of the Caribbean.  The reason is it tends to enhance precipitation from the equatorial Atlantic to the Gulf of Guinea coast in W. Africa, which in turns suppresses precipitation in the Sahel and the eastern MDR.  See https://www.aoml.noaa.gov/news/the-atlantic-nino-el-ninos-little-brother

The ECMWF seasonal model, as well as JMA and Meteo-France, have the Atlantic Nino persisting into peak season (Aug-Oct).  This explains why they generally have above normal precip. from Aug-Oct from the Gulf of Guinea coast in W. Africa to the equatorial tropical Atlantic, but generally below normal in the MDR east of the Lesser Antilles.

On the other hand, the CFS, CMC, and Australian BOM indicate the Atlantic Nino will weaken significantly or dissipated by Aug-Oct.  These models are wetter for the MDR.

The UKMET model has a slow weakening of the Atlantic Nino by Aug-Oct but also indicates significant warming in the E. Atlantic MDR, which would likely reduce the impacts of the Atlantic Nino on the MDR.  It has a drier MDR when the Atl Nino is at its peak in Jun-Jul, but the MDR turns wetter by Aug-Oct.

Interestingly, 1999, a leading analog to this year, also had an Atlantic Nino develop in May.  It peaked in Jul but disappeared rapidly by Sep.  This may partially explain the delayed start to the tropical season in 1999.   There was only one MDR storm before Sep 7 when Floyd formed.  That was Cindy, which formed Aug 21 but struggled with wind shear east of the Lesser Antilles.

cur_coraltemp5km_ssta_satlantic_930x580.gif

PW S 1999.png

PW JJ 1999.png

That's OK, for Eastern CONUS interests, we do better with further west development anyway.

Link to post
Share on other sites
  • 5 weeks later...
15 minutes ago, Snowman11 said:

JB has the east coast in a high risk for tropical weather this summer 

If you get above normal activity, a Bermuda high, and warm SSTs, that would be a good recipe.

Link to post
Share on other sites
  • 2 weeks later...

Heading to Turks & Caicos on Sunday 7/4, looks like 95L might pass just before and 97L needs to be watched...

 

For those of us on the MA/NE seaboard, do the posts above from May still hold regarding above-normal wind shear in our region?  Does that imply lower chances of tropical tracks into our region and more chances for the Gulf?

 

Interesting tracking times ahead!

Link to post
Share on other sites

Tricky forecast for Elsa.  While a weaker tropical cyclone typically heads further west, and a stronger one recurves north quicker, here it's the opposite situation.
 

 

Link to post
Share on other sites
32 minutes ago, dmillz25 said:

We have Hurricane Elsa now

Yeah, confirmed the old fashioned way- surface obs.  Barbados reported 74G86 MPH.

Link to post
Share on other sites
22 minutes ago, Analog96 said:

Yeah, confirmed the old fashioned way- surface obs.  Barbados reported 74G86 MPH.

Pressure is still at a weaker TS level and looks messy 

Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

×
×
  • Create New...