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Weather Pattern & Storm Threat Discussion - Winter 21-22


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On 10/9/2021 at 7:32 AM, NJwxguy78 said:


This is quite possibly the funniest post I’ve read since March.

Dont discount 2011-12 winter. Just saying. Nothing exciting about a GOA low, especially if it's still prevalent next month. Unless if you like blowtorch conditions, which is what that winter was

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Hey guys! I figured I'd share some of my thoughts on this upcoming December since we're already a week into November. Can't believe winter is almost here.   So, this past October has feature

Also, am feeling more comfortable we can put any 2011-12 analog rumors to bed...   Due to ENSO and QBO similarities, it was necessary to consider it as an analog heading into the fall.

all ensembles are strengthening the Greenland blocking considerably as we move forward in time, and the GEFS has come on board as well   this is a significant signal for potent blocking. a 2

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16 minutes ago, Mr. Kevin said:

Dont discount 2011-12 winter. Just saying. Nothing exciting about a GOA low, especially if it's still prevalent next month. Unless if you like blowtorch conditions, which is what that winter was

That winter was brutal . I appreciate all the long range forecasts but after the last 2 winters , I take them with a grain of salt. 

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2011-12 had a much weaker -QBO that became stronger in the winter...2021 is allready at that point and still falling...so the qbo might be stronger or going in opposite directions...it doesn't mean the winter can't suck...now if we get a halloween snowstorm all bets are off...

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I also don't forecast two historically low snowfall winters in 3 years.  Can it happen? Sure, but with long range forecasting a little climo has to be factored in.

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Upper air analogs are not good.   The most common upper air analogs have been 2007 and 1958.

QBO analogs are very good.  The most similar appear to be 2014, 2000, and 1986.

ENSO analogs are mixed.  They include 2016, 2011, and 1964.

Interestingly, last year is not a bad ENSO or QBO analog.

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14 minutes ago, Analog96 said:

Upper air analogs are not good.   The most common upper air analogs have been 2007 and 1958.

QBO analogs are very good.  The most similar appear to be 2014, 2000, and 1986.

ENSO analogs are mixed.  They include 2016, 2011, and 1964.

Interestingly, last year is not a bad ENSO or QBO analog.

1958-59 was a cold winter but snowfall was well below average...2007-08 was milder but snowfall was well below average too...1964 was much colder in October...the winter was average...cold in todays world...

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7 hours ago, Mr. Kevin said:

Dont discount 2011-12 winter. Just saying. Nothing exciting about a GOA low, especially if it's still prevalent next month. Unless if you like blowtorch conditions, which is what that winter was


I am not discounting anything…. just not preparing to lock up winter 21-22 before October ends. :) 

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12 hours ago, Mr. Kevin said:

Dont discount 2011-12 winter. Just saying. Nothing exciting about a GOA low, especially if it's still prevalent next month. Unless if you like blowtorch conditions, which is what that winter was

 

OCT 2011 held a little promise. But went downhill late NOV through rest of winter.

 

In fact, one would've had more hope from OCT 2011 than OCT 2021 for sure. In other words it does not mean much. 

 

Screenshot_20211010-205326_Chrome.jpg.6de29b4fdea91e0a18cf9caad13f1d06.jpg

Screenshot_20211010-205440_Chrome.jpg.9a73e82c5158feec7beeec3cb20346eb.jpg

 

 

While a good 2017-18 winter did not leave a good vibe from OCT 2017:

Screenshot_20211010-210324_Chrome.jpg.bd2108e3ec0c7f1071116cde97fe7138.jpg

Screenshot_20211010-210246_Chrome.jpg.322b2810daa5d84e1764f1300bf19c4f.jpg

 

 

With a that said...2011-12 winter is still a valid analog, but people need to keep going crazy over OCT SST's & pattern. 

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18 minutes ago, Grace said:

 

OCT 2011 held a little promise. But went downhill late NOV through rest of winter.

 

In fact, one would've had more hope from OCT 2011 than OCT 2021 for sure. In other words it does not mean much. 

 

Screenshot_20211010-205326_Chrome.jpg.6de29b4fdea91e0a18cf9caad13f1d06.jpg

Screenshot_20211010-205440_Chrome.jpg.9a73e82c5158feec7beeec3cb20346eb.jpg

 

 

While a good 2017-18 winter did not leave a good vibe from OCT 2017:

Screenshot_20211010-210324_Chrome.jpg.bd2108e3ec0c7f1071116cde97fe7138.jpg

Screenshot_20211010-210246_Chrome.jpg.322b2810daa5d84e1764f1300bf19c4f.jpg

 

 

With a that said...2011-12 winter is still a valid analog, but people need to keep going crazy over OCT SST's & pattern. 

If the seasonal models are correct I'd be blown away (currently most don't look great). I mean have we ever seen the majority of the seasonal models accurately predict winter in October? It's probably better they look bad in October, it would prob turn out bad if the majority said cold and stormy in October because you can almost guarantee they won't be holding that forecast until, and during the beginning of winter.  Besides the waters in the pacific, particularly around Alaska change so dramatically from even week to week this time of year, again I'd be pretty surprised to see the not shift dramatically to possibly totally opposite by mid November to early December.

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Here's an article on the strat warming event underway. I do not agree with everything said in this article.

https://www.severe-weather.eu/global-weather/early-stratospheric-warming-polar-vortex-forecast-cold-season-fa/

 

Below is a fascinating thread to read by an PhD atmospheric scientist on this. I highly encourage to click & read his tweets in his thread:

 
 
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12 hours ago, Event Horizon said:

 

Yeah. I was suspecting this may happen at some point, but the question is: What's driving the Eastern Ridging to go poleward? 

Changing wave lengths I’m assuming 

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I, for one, am in the on the early winter train.  Mid to late winter has too many mixed signals. 

 

However, I will say this: a weak, east-based la nina with high latitude blocking sure looks likely this winter. Something inside me says Miller B's and Alberta Clippers will be returning with a vengeance, something we haven't truly seen in a while around these parts 

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  • NJwxguy78 changed the title to Weather Pattern & Storm Threat Discussion - Winter 21-22

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