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Weather Pattern & Storm Threat Discussion - Winter 21-22


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Hey guys! I figured I'd share some of my thoughts on this upcoming December since we're already a week into November. Can't believe winter is almost here.   So, this past October has feature

Also, am feeling more comfortable we can put any 2011-12 analog rumors to bed...   Due to ENSO and QBO similarities, it was necessary to consider it as an analog heading into the fall.

all ensembles are strengthening the Greenland blocking considerably as we move forward in time, and the GEFS has come on board as well   this is a significant signal for potent blocking. a 2

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Looks like a positive this winter is that there will be a strong negative (Easterly) QBO assuming it doesn't "break" and have an anomaly reversal like 2016 and 2020...

image.png.67666bac99223344f88614eddfeb13ee.png

image.png.65eb8179ff84a0992e887f84fe3af36d.png

qbo_plot_eof.png

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17 hours ago, WxLover said:

Looks like a positive this winter is that there will be a strong negative (Easterly) QBO assuming it doesn't "break" and have an anomaly reversal like 2016 and 2020...

image.png.67666bac99223344f88614eddfeb13ee.png

image.png.65eb8179ff84a0992e887f84fe3af36d.png

qbo_plot_eof.png

I'm not sure if this means anything, but at 50mb, it's still westerly or positive. If I read the cpc 50mb charts correctly 🤔

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@Mr. KevinYou're seeing the lag effect at 50mb as it has to propagate down from 30mb...  The dataset I posted was the 30mb QBO index values.  Regardless if you read off the 2021 monthly values you can see that overtime both are going in the negative (easterly) direction...

image.png.9bab66b9aca109dd371fa3e840f5981d.png

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2 hours ago, WxLover said:

@Mr. KevinYou're seeing the lag effect at 50mb as it has to propagate down from 30mb...  The dataset I posted was the 30mb QBO index values.  Regardless if you read off the 2021 monthly values you can see that overtime both are going in the negative (easterly) direction...

image.png.9bab66b9aca109dd371fa3e840f5981d.png

What are your thoughts on this new chart?

E-XZrlLX0Ac4FHe.png

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18 minutes ago, Mr. Kevin said:

What are your thoughts on this new chart?

E-XZrlLX0Ac4FHe.png

I mean it makes logical sense the QBO Index would continue to go deeper into negative values since it's usually a 27 month cycle.  Some of those predicted values are near 2017 - 2018 winter QBO values which is very interesting to say the least...

 

Current NAO

Current NAO

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Not looking like a bad ensemble mean from the ECM for you guys again this winter. Significant potential for arctic outbreaks if this 3 month smoothed average is anything like accurate. Meanwhile winter in Europe has become a myth unless a strat warming can act to reverse the flow and produce sufficient friction to cause disruption at the surface. The last 10 years in Europe have been truly horrendous away from these strat events. Such a strong north pacific high destroys the long wave pattern for us.... 😞

 

Dec 2021

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6 minutes ago, Catacol said:

Not looking like a bad ensemble mean from the ECM for you guys again this winter. Significant potential for arctic outbreaks if this 3 month smoothed average is anything like accurate. Meanwhile winter in Europe has become a myth unless a strat warming can act to reverse the flow and produce sufficient friction to cause disruption at the surface. The last 10 years in Europe have been truly horrendous away from these strat events. Such a strong north pacific high destroys the long wave pattern for us.... 😞

 

Dec 2021

We really wasn't that cold in the states other than for February that had the MMW. February was brutal for most, but not all. 

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there hasn't been a really cold winter since 2014-15...2017-18 was cold to start but had a warm February...averaged 36.2...since the 1990-91 winter the average temperature for the Dec thru Feb period is 36.1...last year averaged 36.1...2014-15 averaged 31.7...2010-11 averaged 32.7...2003-04 was 32.4...2002-03 was 31.2...2000-01 with 33.5...1995-96 at 32.3 and 1993-94 with 31.2 were the coldest winters of the bunch and are below the long term average of around 33.6...2001-02 averaged 41.5...2011-12 was 40.5...2015-16 averged 41.0...those were the warmest...

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16 hours ago, Catacol said:

Not looking like a bad ensemble mean from the ECM for you guys again this winter. Significant potential for arctic outbreaks if this 3 month smoothed average is anything like accurate. Meanwhile winter in Europe has become a myth unless a strat warming can act to reverse the flow and produce sufficient friction to cause disruption at the surface. The last 10 years in Europe have been truly horrendous away from these strat events. Such a strong north pacific high destroys the long wave pattern for us.... 😞

 

Dec 2021

That isn’t a horrible look for the NE US especially for New England. Here in NYC looks to be on either side of the gradient so with that look we would have times on the cold side of the gradient and times on the warm side

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What were some of the best gradient pattern induced winters for the NYC region?  I summons Uncle W for this one!  Sunsets noticeably earlier now so the subconscious excitement is underway.  Looking for that first sub 70 degree high as the very first step towards the favorite season for just about everyone registered to these forums!

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3 minutes ago, MR FREEZE said:

What were some of the best gradient pattern induced winters for the NYC region?  I summons Uncle W for this one!  Sunsets noticeably earlier now so the subconscious excitement is underway.  Looking for that first sub 70 degree high as the very first step towards the favorite season for just about everyone registered to these forums!

1993-94 was probably the best gradient winter in our area.

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16 minutes ago, Analog96 said:

1993-94 was probably the best gradient winter in our area.

One of my all time favorites.....and we were almost always on the preferred side of the gradient throughout!

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9 hours ago, MR FREEZE said:

One of my all time favorites.....and we were almost always on the preferred side of the gradient throughout!

yes, that was a truly great winter!

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