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Weather Pattern & Storm Threat Discussion - Winter 21-22


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Hey guys! I figured I'd share some of my thoughts on this upcoming December since we're already a week into November. Can't believe winter is almost here.   So, this past October has feature

Also, am feeling more comfortable we can put any 2011-12 analog rumors to bed...   Due to ENSO and QBO similarities, it was necessary to consider it as an analog heading into the fall.

all ensembles are strengthening the Greenland blocking considerably as we move forward in time, and the GEFS has come on board as well   this is a significant signal for potent blocking. a 2

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36 minutes ago, NJwxguy78 said:

I know, fantasy range…. But you have to love seeing this in October.

 

Rainy windswept coastal storm pulling the Canadian air toward the border.

 

 

E30BBC5D-A1B8-41AC-8329-DDC11F35C4EA.png

2D9B51D6-E84D-444A-9CFF-E5124C075D3E.png

October is usually when we start seeing signs of how the winter will play out at least storm track wise. Some slower moving strong nor'easters would be nice as we head deeper into fall/winter. 

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11 hours ago, uncle w said:

 

I always thought it was the OLD Farmers almanac that yielded the most accurate forecasts overall.  I used to buy those almanacs religiously.  I would start searching all the news stands in Brooklyn (from the mid 1980s thru about 2010) hunting for a pleasurable read.  There were at least 4 or 5 that I would buy.  Harris' Weather almanac was another one!

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3 hours ago, MR FREEZE said:

I always thought it was the OLD Farmers almanac that yielded the most accurate forecasts overall.  I used to buy those almanacs religiously.  I would start searching all the news stands in Brooklyn (from the mid 1980s thru about 2010) hunting for a pleasurable read.  There were at least 4 or 5 that I would buy.  Harris' Weather almanac was another one!

I remember going to the NEW York Daily News building to get their weather almanac...I went there by train on 12/11/1963...snow was in the forecast...we did get snow the next day and Dec 63 turned out to be a very good month...1963-64 was the little brother to 1995-96 because of the way the winter played out...

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Running some basic SST panels for ENSO vs PDO vs South Pacific domains (from 1984 to 2019)


- Strong Nina as a control

C64428A3-CC34-49B8-B27D-4554DED29DC7.png
So standard Nina form not ideal for Eastern snowfall, with a +NAO and Western troughing.

 

- Years with SST patterns similar to that forecast this winter by ECMWF:

6DFDF31F-477E-4C0D-A33E-6605A98CA185.png
A potentially more interesting pattern for North America, Canadian trough, -NAO/Scandi block and Aleutian ridging.

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winters coldest and warmest max from Dec-Feb....

since the 1944-45 winter...

coldest max...

55 in 1963-64...

57 in 1976-77...

58 in 1981-82...

58 in 1977-78...

58 in 1961-62...

58 in 1944-45...

59 in 2003-04...

59 in 1986-87...

59 in 1957-58...

59 in 1955-56...

59 in 1947-48...

pre 44-45...

53 in 1904-05...

57 in 1922-23...

59 in 1917-18...

58 in 1933-34...

......................................................................

warmet max...

78 in 2017-18...

75 in 1998-99...

75 in 1984-85...

73 in 1948-49...

72 in 2015-16...

72 in 2006-07...

72 in 1996-97...

72 in 1982-83...

72 in 1949-50...

71 in 2013-14...

71 in 2001-02...

71 in 1953-54...

70 in 2016-17...

70 in 1990-91...

70 in 1975-76...

70 in 1946-47...

pre 44-45...

75 in 1029-30...

72 in 1973-74...

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38 minutes ago, uncle w said:

winters coldest and warmest max from Dec-Feb....

since the 1944-45 winter...

coldest max...

55 in 1963-64...

57 in 1976-77...

58 in 1981-82...

58 in 1977-78...

58 in 1961-62...

58 in 1944-45...

59 in 2003-04...

59 in 1986-87...

59 in 1957-58...

59 in 1955-56...

59 in 1947-48...

pre 44-45...

53 in 1904-05...

57 in 1922-23...

59 in 1917-18...

58 in 1933-34...

......................................................................

warmet max...

78 in 2017-18...

75 in 1998-99...

75 in 1984-85...

73 in 1948-49...

72 in 2015-16...

72 in 2006-07...

72 in 1996-97...

72 in 1982-83...

72 in 1949-50...

71 in 2013-14...

71 in 2001-02...

71 in 1953-54...

70 in 2016-17...

70 in 1990-91...

70 in 1975-76...

70 in 1946-47...

pre 44-45...

75 in 1029-30...

72 in 1973-74...

I believe there were 2 straight days of 78 in Feb 2018.  Interestingly enough, this was followed by a wild March.  I am very surprised that the park has never touched the 80 degree mark between Dec. 1st and Feb. 28th.........what is the earliest and latest an 80 deg reading has ever occurred in the park?  I wouldn't be shocked at all if its happened on March 1st of a given year.  Also, I would suspect its happened around Thanksgiving as well.

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1 hour ago, MR FREEZE said:

I believe there were 2 straight days of 78 in Feb 2018.  Interestingly enough, this was followed by a wild March.  I am very surprised that the park has never touched the 80 degree mark between Dec. 1st and Feb. 28th.........what is the earliest and latest an 80 deg reading has ever occurred in the park?  I wouldn't be shocked at all if its happened on March 1st of a given year.  Also, I would suspect its happened around Thanksgiving as well.

85 on March 13th 1990...80 on Nov 15th 1993...

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here's a statistical tidbit for September...todays low temp in Central Park was 54...lowest so far this month...if it stands it will be with these years that had a September minimum of 54 since 1960...

1960...

1982...

2002...

2010...

2016...

2017...

some great analogs for snow in there...

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  • NJwxguy78 changed the title to Weather Pattern & Storm Threat Discussion - Winter 21-22

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