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Weather Pattern & Storm Threat Discussion - Winter 21-22


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8 hours ago, uncle w said:

here's a statistical tidbit for September...todays low temp in Central Park was 54...lowest so far this month...if it stands it will be with these years that had a September minimum of 54 since 1960...

1960...

1982...

2002...

2010...

2016...

2017...

some great analogs for snow in there...

1982-83 was all in the Feb 11th blizzard.  Similar to the 2015-16 season.  I want to sign up for a 1960-61 repeat!  That was one of the rare wire to wire true winters.  

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Hey guys! I figured I'd share some of my thoughts on this upcoming December since we're already a week into November. Can't believe winter is almost here.   So, this past October has feature

Also, am feeling more comfortable we can put any 2011-12 analog rumors to bed...   Due to ENSO and QBO similarities, it was necessary to consider it as an analog heading into the fall.

all ensembles are strengthening the Greenland blocking considerably as we move forward in time, and the GEFS has come on board as well   this is a significant signal for potent blocking. a 2

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1 hour ago, MR FREEZE said:

1982-83 was all in the Feb 11th blizzard.  Similar to the 2015-16 season.  I want to sign up for a 1960-61 repeat!  That was one of the rare wire to wire true winters.  

1960-61 ended early as a major thaw set in the second half of February...2010-11 was similar and ended early...I was 11 in 1960 so that winter is still my favorite...28" of snow was on the ground on Feb 4th 1961 in Brooklyn...it was colder than 2010-11 too...from Jan 15th to Feb 4th NYC had 34" of snow and 16 straight days with the max below freezing...not to mention a 15-21 inch storm two weeks before Christmas...

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wire to wire winters are rare...what is one anyway?...1995-96 would be a great example even with two major thaws...A wire to wire starts at the end of Nov with a little snow...then a great December with snow on the ground on Christmas...January and February have above average snow...March has some snows...2002-03 came close but not enough snow fell in January if you want to nit pic...some winters I think are near wire to wire all had a thaw or two...

1995-96 started at the end of Nov and ended in April...

2002-03 started in early Dec and ended in April...

1993-94 started in December and ended mid March...

1963-64...great December...blizzard in January...above average snow in Feb and March...

1947-48 even though there was a big thaw in February like 1994...

 

1957-58 except for a warm second half of December would be ranked...

2017-18 comes close...warm February destroyed its ranking...

1966-67 except for a warm January would be ranked...

1933-34 except for a milder January...

1960-61 and 2010-11 had sesond half February thaws...

earlier winters like 1922-23 were wire to wire...

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9 minutes ago, uncle w said:

wire to wire winters are rare...what is one anyway?...1995-96 would be a great example even with two major thaws...A wire to wire starts at the end of Nov with a little snow...then a great December with snow on the ground on Christmas...January and February have above average snow...March has some snows...2002-03 came close but not enough snow fell in January if you want to nit pic...some winters I think are near wire to wire all had a thaw or two...

1995-96 started at the end of Nov and ended in April...

2002-03 started in early Dec and ended in April...

1993-94 started in December and ended mid March...

1963-64...great December...blizzard in January...above average snow in Feb and March...

1947-48 even though there was a big thaw in February like 1994...

 

1957-58 except for a warm second half of December would be ranked...

2017-18 comes close...warm February destroyed its ranking...

1966-67 except for a warm January would be ranked...

1933-34 except for a milder January...

1960-61 and 2010-11 had sesond half February thaws...

earlier winters like 1922-23 were wire to wire...

2013-14 was close. March was bitter but the pv kept the snow away.

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29 minutes ago, Analog96 said:

2013-14 was close. March was bitter but the pv kept the snow away.

that and 71 degrees around Christmas ruined that winter from being wire to wire...

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10 hours ago, Analog96 said:

There's always a warm day somewhere in winter.

True every winter has a day or two. Unlike the Godzilla Nino we had a few years back!!

Nina taking control again this winter.

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1 minute ago, amugs said:

True every winter has a day or two. Unlike the Godzilla Nino we had a few years back!!

Nina taking control again this winter.

In 2015, we went 63 days without hitting 50.  That may never happen again for a long time.

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3 minutes ago, Analog96 said:

In 2015, we went 63 days without hitting 50.  That may never happen again for a long time.

1968-69 had over 70 days but did not get as cold as 2015...going a month without hitting 50 is rare...

months with a max below 50 in Central Park...

Feb 2015.....43

Feb 2010.....46

Jan 2009.....47

Feb 2007.....49

Feb 1986.....48

Jan 1981.....49

Feb 1978.....41

Jan 1977.....44

Jan 1971.....46

Feb 1969.....44

Jan 1969.....48

Feb 1968.....49

Feb 1958.....49

Jan 1956.....48

 

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long winters have a long period of below freezing temperatures...NYC is getting less and less days with a min 32 or lower...these are the longest streaks of consecutive days with a minimum 32 or lower in Central Park...

most consecutive days with a minimum 32 or lower..

1872-73.....62

1874-75.....56

1880-81.....56...........

1976-77.....51............

1915-16.....47...........

1887-88.....45..........

1969-70.....45..........

1917-18.....44.........

1894-95.....41..........

2014-15.....38.........

1892-93.....38.........

1913-14.....38...........

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Is it though?

 

Sure there are heat and momentum fluxes and noted anomalies in wave forecasts that would indicate a destabilisation of the SPV:

AC28578F-E16E-49D2-AE56-4B8B39E65FA1.png
But a warming isn’t really what I would call this.

08121D76-6BF3-40BC-8E86-7AE33906ABDC.png
More of a slowing and stagnation to the usual cooling and building of the winter SPV. So do the short term impacts of this really matter, not really. If this means a weaker vortex on a more sub-seasonal to seasonal scale, as say CFS suggests, well that would be interesting. For the moment, there isn’t a huge amount to deduce from this, other than a pleasant somewhat interesting weather anomaly.

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An interesting blend:

1996-97, 2000-01, 2008-09, 2017-18...all 2nd year Nina's:

OCTOBER

Screenshot_20211001-221028_Chrome.thumb.jpg.0fbf42471c858899fd3575444d3ba5d9.jpg

 

That's very similar to what is forecasted by latest CANSIPS:

Screenshot_20211001-221426_Chrome.thumb.jpg.51c155fbc0422042e31be621e195822d.jpg

 

That blend has a great first half of winter:

DEC/JAN

Screenshot_20211001-220947_Chrome.thumb.jpg.6a2c3e5cf4dc5da4d5ecb8d4cf97d4dd.jpg

Screenshot_20211002-092006_Chrome.thumb.jpg.a3af808829130b0e84a8d01653d53716.jpg

 

 

Then ridging takes over in FEB:

FEB

Screenshot_20211001-221755_Chrome.thumb.jpg.b4338c1b0cecfe85f05be1fcb665f787.jpg

Screenshot_20211001-221717_Chrome.thumb.jpg.bd8f7a02f15434a0a19023a8053d93b9.jpg

 

Pretty intriguing with the October if that forecast verifies. 

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  • NJwxguy78 changed the title to Weather Pattern & Storm Threat Discussion - Winter 21-22

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