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Weather Pattern & Storm Threat Discussion - Winter 21-22


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Nov may get interesting but what does that mean for Dec and Jan? Recovery of the PV usually but can we just weaken it, knock it around a bunch and keep it this way for a duration of time this winter?? Remains to be seen.

 

 

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Hey guys! I figured I'd share some of my thoughts on this upcoming December since we're already a week into November. Can't believe winter is almost here.   So, this past October has feature

Also, am feeling more comfortable we can put any 2011-12 analog rumors to bed...   Due to ENSO and QBO similarities, it was necessary to consider it as an analog heading into the fall.

all ensembles are strengthening the Greenland blocking considerably as we move forward in time, and the GEFS has come on board as well   this is a significant signal for potent blocking. a 2

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I dont mean to be a debbie downer, but if this look stays into November in the Pacific and dont get a weak pv early on, we should highly consider 22-23 winter thread. 2nd year niñas aren't good for cold weather enthusiasts, but of course there have been exceptions. 

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6 hours ago, amugs said:

Nov may get interesting but what does that mean for Dec and Jan? Recovery of the PV usually but can we just weaken it, knock it around a bunch and keep it this way for a duration of time this winter?? Remains to be seen.

 

 

FBMWlA6XIAIYsmc.png

That's the big question. I found this twitter thread very relevant to the discussion so far about what an early SSW could mean later on. Looks like we don't necessarily want a complete SSW this early, could screw up mid-winter. Possibly even a very weak vortex this early wouldn't be a great thing for mid-winter prospects from what I understood. But probably still better to have it on the weaker side imo, just not so weak that those mechanisms Simon Lee described kick in to help it recover in the heart of winter.  

 

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14 hours ago, Mr. Kevin said:

I dont mean to be a debbie downer, but if this look stays into November in the Pacific and dont get a weak pv early on, we should highly consider 22-23 winter thread. 2nd year niñas aren't good for cold weather enthusiasts, but of course there have been exceptions. 


This is quite possibly the funniest post I’ve read since March.

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21 hours ago, Stormlover74 said:

 

 

 

Well...here is October 7, 2013

Screenshot_20211009-091405_Chrome.jpg.db00170bb6560b9b36984b2a0c5ea4a5.jpg

 

CURRENT

Screenshot_20211009-092019_Chrome.jpg.4bbcc7f69cba749034e10468f8957e4f.jpg

 

Point is you really cannot draw conclusions about winter from early Oct SST's. October & November NPAC SST's are usually subject to large fluctuations. 

 

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29 minutes ago, Grace said:

 

Well...here is October 7, 2013

Screenshot_20211009-091405_Chrome.jpg.db00170bb6560b9b36984b2a0c5ea4a5.jpg

 

CURRENT

Screenshot_20211009-092019_Chrome.jpg.4bbcc7f69cba749034e10468f8957e4f.jpg

 

Point is you really cannot draw conclusions about winter from early Oct SST's. October & November NPAC SST's are usually subject to large fluctuations. 

 

This is why winter forecasts that are made too early, i.e. before the end of October, are subject to high bust potential.

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17 hours ago, Mr. Kevin said:

I dont mean to be a debbie downer, but if this look stays into November in the Pacific and dont get a weak pv early on, we should highly consider 22-23 winter thread. 2nd year niñas aren't good for cold weather enthusiasts, but of course there have been exceptions. 

81-82 and 84-85 were not horrible.  Not blockbusters, but certaily not non-winters.

08-09 certainly was not a non-winter.

17-18 was a very good winter.
Those are some 2nd year ninas that were not bad.

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22 hours ago, Stormlover74 said:

 

 

Hate to say it, but the Gulf of Alaska low may be around for a long while this winter.   However, I see the potential for an active STJ.  It'll be another weird LaNina probably. 

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8 minutes ago, OleySnow said:

Hate to say it, but the Gulf of Alaska low may be around for a long while this winter.   However, I see the potential for an active STJ.  It'll be another weird LaNina probably. 

The Pacific had an active hurricane season too.

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12 minutes ago, OleySnow said:

Hate to say it, but the Gulf of Alaska low may be around for a long while this winter.   However, I see the potential for an active STJ.  It'll be another weird LaNina probably. 

 

Did you not see my post right above yours? That tweet should mean nothing in early OCT for reason I demonstrated.

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this could be the year NYC has snow on the ground for Christmas...in recent years the city got snow before Christmas but it melted by Christmas day...last year was a week to early...

2008..

2013...

2016...

2017...

2020...

.....................................................................................................................................................................................

most of the winters with an inch of snow on the ground for Christmas were good to great winters...there have been winters with less than 20" of snow with snow on the ground Christmas morning...

1912-13...15.3" for the season...11.4" Christmas eve...11" on the ground Christmas morning...

1929-30...13.6" for the season...1.4" 12/23....................1" on the ground Christmas morning...

1930-31...11.6" for the season.....3.9" 12/23-24............2" on the ground Christmas morning...

1961-62...18.1" for the season.....6.2" 12/23-24............6" on the ground Christmas morning...

1998-99...14.7" for the season....2.0" 12/23-24............1" on the ground Christmas morning...

near miss in Central Park...

1962-63...16.3" for the season....2.7" 12/21-22............T-1" on the ground Christmas morn...light snow Christmas afternoon...

1970-71...15.3" for the season.....2.1" 12/21-23.............T-1" on the ground Christmas morning...

1975-76...17.3" for the season.....2.0" 12/22.................T-1" on the ground Christmas morning...Lt snow Christmas afternoon...

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4 minutes ago, Analog96 said:

The Pacific had an active hurricane season too.

The MJO could work in our favor this year, but who knows if the strat will cooperate.  It's still early, as others have said, but the process is underway.

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2 minutes ago, Grace said:

 

Did you not see my post right above yours? That tweet should mean nothing in early OCT for reason I demonstrated.

Agreed 100%.

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Just now, Grace said:

 

I drew wrong conclusions from your post. Sorry about that.

It's ok. I appreciate your response.  I did not clearly state what I was getting at.  A GOA low is usually a thorn in the side, but you can get undercutting lows teaming up with an active STJ.  Yea, that could mean more wet than white, but I think we score a few times.  Still, a lot to be determined. 

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I don't like certain things I see right now.  But first, it's still early, wake me up with the LR guidance in two weeks.

Secondly, at least using climo, a 2019-20 repeat is highly unlikely, considering those types of winters usually don't come around every other year.

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1 hour ago, OleySnow said:

Hate to say it, but the Gulf of Alaska low may be around for a long while this winter.   However, I see the potential for an active STJ.  It'll be another weird LaNina probably. 

 

An active STJ with prominent West Coast troughing could lead to some insane GLCs. 

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  • NJwxguy78 changed the title to Weather Pattern & Storm Threat Discussion - Winter 21-22

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