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Central US Winter 2018-19 Obs & Pattern Discussion

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Chicago hit 70 today.  The second earliest 70 reading in February.

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25 minutes ago, NJwxguy78 said:

The GFS lines up well with the GEFS of last night.

 

IMG_0377.thumb.PNG.6a5ae868134af0cd9b93b00ecaace3a7.PNG

 

This cant be right.  Chicago hasn't seen measureable snow in 2 months.  Iowa and Wisconsin will get crushed though.

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12 minutes ago, ModRisk said:

This cant be right.  Chicago hasn't seen measureable snow in 2 months.  Iowa and Wisconsin will get crushed though.

 

Well, it's the GFS....

 

Main Idea of a snowy Central US is probably right.  Details will obviously need to be worked out.

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1 minute ago, NJwxguy78 said:

 

Well, it's the GFS....

 

Main Idea of a snowy Central US is probably right.  Details will obviously need to be worked out.

My reply was somewhat sarcastic with a cool fact thrown in lol

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24 minutes ago, ModRisk said:

My reply was somewhat sarcastic with a cool fact thrown in lol

 

#FlakeNews

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2 hours ago, NJwxguy78 said:

The GFS lines up well with the GEFS of last night.

 

IMG_0377.thumb.PNG.6a5ae868134af0cd9b93b00ecaace3a7.PNG

 

lol it's not gonna snow here

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15 minutes ago, Huskerbaw said:

lol it's not gonna snow here

 

Appreciate the thoughtful response.

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Might need to hoist some blizzard watches this afternoon. 

 

12z ECM came in gusty 

 

58ac8d67693f2_ScreenHunter_285Feb_2113_31.png.008c7a3f3d0d7b8529af02af99543fe8.png

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Beautiful evolution for the Central states, but leaves us out to hang in the 70 degree heat later this week. 

 

 

500mb_geopotential_height_cyclonic_vorticity_CONUS_hr078.png

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Wow...

 

Of course @earthlight will be in MSP for this one. 

 

Just an absolutely sick sounding from within one of the convective snow cells that the 4km NAM pops. 

 

Mean omega of -70ub/s within the dendritic growth zone, which is just insanity likely derived from the convective precipitation coming from the south. 

 

 

nam4km_2017022200_054_44.31--92.97.png

refcmp.us_mw.png

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@earthlight the euro and ggem look pretty far south with the snow swath across Minnesota. Any concern the big totals might be south of MSP? 

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3 hours ago, Allsnow said:

@earthlight the euro and ggem look pretty far south with the snow swath across Minnesota. Any concern the big totals might be south of MSP? 

 

Yeah, the south trend was real today. 

 

Blizzard watches now up for NE/SD

 

2xmw_severe.gif

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1 hour ago, Superstorm93 said:

 

Yeah, the south trend was real today. 

 

Blizzard watches now up for NE/SD

 

2xmw_severe.gif

 

Nam with a jump south at 00z 

IMG_0141.GIF

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12 minutes ago, Huskerbaw said:

0.9 here, awwwwwww yeeeaaa 

 

gonna get me to near 6" for the season 

Rgem says congrats on 3-5 

IMG_1409.PNG

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