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Central US Winter 2018-19 Obs & Pattern Discussion

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The 00z suite looks like an epic severe outbreak over much of the Southern Plains

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18 hours ago, samsara2 said:

The 00z suite looks like an epic severe outbreak over much of the Southern Plains

Hopefully we have somewhat of a half decent severe season this year 

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39 minutes ago, Snowlover76 said:

Hopefully we have somewhat of a half decent severe season this year 

My crazy suspicion is that the key ingredient for ++severe weather in the Plains is a strong spring snowpack in the Rockies. The second component would be +SSTA in the GOM. I think the mixing of the resulting and extremely contrasting airmasses in the Plains & South (COLD up top, warm and humid down below) is the best recipe for tornadic activity etc in the Plains and this year we may have both ingredients for a rather prolonged amount of time. 

 

The below setup looks rather epic to my eyes.

 

gfs_mslp_uv850_us_20.png

 

gfs_mslp_uv850_us_22.png

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A monster Central Plains storm indeed!  Some of the videos taken out in NE and CO during the brunt of the storm were incredible.....almost like being in a Category 1 Blizzicane.

 

Heavy rains in Northern Illinois yesterday and rising temps throughout the night resulted in waking up to 57 degrees this morning.  When I didn't hear the furnace firing up at its normal time this morning I was wondering what was happening!  Of course all good things must come to an end.......Thunderstorms firing into this afternoon before temps drop back down to the mid 30's by Friday morning with potential for some snow showers. 

 

Overall, it appears Winter has finally ended and in all honesty I am ready for it to be over.  The stretch from Mid January through Early March was a wild one for the Central US and being able to interact on this site has been a very rewarding experience.  Looking forward to following along throughout the severe season.

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The Missouri River is about to breach the Brownsville nuclear power plant.

 

bron1_hg.png

 

2011's record level was 44.79'. We are already at 45.55 and have another 2.5 feet to crest. The plant's emergency alert level is 1.4' above the 2011 crest or, 46.2' in the above graph, which should be breached by approximately 2 feet. 

 

:o

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This looks like it could be truly catastrophic

 

https://water.weather.gov/ahps2/hydrograph.php?wfo=fsd&gage=gpdn1

 

It is worth noting that there is still substantial snowpack left in the Rockies. 2011's record flood occurred in June. There is a chance this may not even be the main event. :o

 

This could be like Katrina but over a much, MUCH, wider area. 

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19 hours ago, samsara2 said:

This looks like it could be truly catastrophic

 

https://water.weather.gov/ahps2/hydrograph.php?wfo=fsd&gage=gpdn1

 

It is worth noting that there is still substantial snowpack left in the Rockies. 2011's record flood occurred in June. There is a chance this may not even be the main event. :o

 

This could be like Katrina but over a much, MUCH, wider area. 

Thats the big concern we have right now out here.  If there is a fast melt of the snowpack in the rockies it will be 2011 all over again.  

 

Right now both Plattsmouth and Nebraska City have had river heights on the Missouri that are higher than the 2011 flood 

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The 00z EURO drops up to 3"+ over Nebraska through D8. Apocalyptic. 

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On 3/19/2019 at 11:07 AM, Analog96 said:

How does this flooding compare with the summer of 1993?

this is the worst natural disaster Nebraska has seen since the dust bowl.  1 million calves are reported dead, losses in Ag alone are gonna cost well over 1 billion 

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