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Isotherm

[Global] Stratospheric Discussion and Forecasting

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See my latest post which has stratospheric relevance in the other thread:

 

 

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Gfs and GEFS split the Pv by Jan 2. Both reconsolidate by day 12. 

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1 minute ago, Allsnow said:

Gfs and GEFS split the Pv by Jan 2. Both reconsolidate by day 12. 

We don’t want that right? Reconsolidate?

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53 minutes ago, Nchaboy said:

We don’t want that right? Reconsolidate?

No...but their is more too it then just that. To be honest, I’m not very educated in it. 

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15 minutes ago, Isotherm said:

 

It's inevitable that it will reconsolidate. It's just a matter of when. Even if the vortex is destroyed, the SPV will reform due to the pole-equator thermal gradient. The longer zonal winds remain easterly, the better, for severe blocking prospects.

 

The damage will have been done.

Oh ok. Thank you! 

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https://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencetech/article-6536269/Experts-say-disruptions-polar-vortex-cause-temperatures-plummet-US.html

 

Brace yourself for a brutal winter: Experts say disruptions in the polar vortex could cause temperatures to plummet in parts of the US

  • Polar vortex is an atmospheric circulation pattern that sits high above the poles
  • Warm air moving into the Arctic can cause it to weaken and split into vortices 
  • These can bring colder temperatures and extreme weather to mid-latitudes 
  • Experts say split at the end of this month could cause severe weather in US
  • The effects would likely come later in January and early February, experts say 
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XT8IOzcI_bigger.jpgSimon Lee @SimonLeeWx
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But what you don't see is the persistence of any easterlies in the polar lower stratosphere. That's not the best sign if downward coupling is your thing.

3:21 PM - 28 Dec 2018
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