[Global] Stratospheric Discussion and Forecasting - Page 29 - 33andrain Spotlight - 33andrain Jump to content
Isotherm

[Global] Stratospheric Discussion and Forecasting

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54 minutes ago, Webberweather said:

Notice how the southern hemisphere final warming event that began about 25-30 days ago directly coincides with when the MJO started to gain significant amplitude over the Indian Ocean in early December. This also marked the first point in the winter season where we finally broke this monotonous, Kelvin-Wave dominated 30 ish day periodicity to subseasonal tropical forcing. 

 

Always great post Webberweather !  This post is very fascinating. 

 

Do you feel as some do, that in 20 days the activity will decline and more favorable conditions will happen, ie. colder /snowier in the Eastern US ?

 

And, do these events have any consequence later after they mature,  as far as possibly extending winter, meaning will the strat event(s),  ( major, minor, split, etc )  lead to any significant winter weather by over-riding the slow to move MJO. 

 

I have read that the polar night jet will slow and there will be some effects from the SSWE.

 

It appears based on your post here the strat side tracked winter, but maybe I am mistaken.

 

I have loosely interpreted HM and even Isotherm's updates here as mentioning the connection with the MJO and the SSWE and the cause and effect relationship they share.  

 

Thanks !!   

 

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1 minute ago, amugs said:

 

This second SSW has been popping up on the Op GFS runs. 

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22 minutes ago, 33andrain said:

This second SSW has been popping up on the Op GFS runs. 

If that occurred what would that mean? 

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1 minute ago, Nchaboy said:

If that occurred what would that mean? 

The same as the first ssw but continued

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Good post @sebastiaan1973

 

I think we need to start making some distinctions here. Not enough downwelling for what exactly? An early jan ssw which severely weakens and displaces the PV at worst, and splits it up at best, will likely yield positive results for the East Coast of the US RE: NATL blocking and cold shots. The damage has already been done IMO in this regard. Now... for those interested in impacts to other areas of the world, or looking for records to be tested, I cannot be so sure. Just think many of the ppl visiting this thread lately are getting confusing by seemingly conflicting reports, which in reality are based on innocent differences in perspective. 

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1 hour ago, Scotlandwx said:

Dropped these into Twitter earlier, good to have for posterity.. and an excellent view of the continued warming activity..

 

output_dp0Bbc.gif.be13dde48b182805abfc65f00f42f2f8.gif

 

output_OIhFSr.gif.1e288886f80bfddd627949af05cf84b9.gif

 

Another one for the archives...

 

image.png.b08bdf3246390924737caf557d5fd013.png

Nice to see the Garinkel Paper noted above.. https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1029/2012GL053144

 

That split looks familiar......

 

2006_01_25.gif.ecc79f493b4ae54df83c3fd34c0667b0.gif

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The zonal mean zonal wind at 10 hPa 60N is today (GFS analysis): 2.3 m/s 
Weakest zonal wind at 10 hPa 60N in ERA interim record for todays date is: 0.9 m/s 2001 
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Michael VentriceVerified account @MJVentrice
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Fascinating GEOS5 stratospheric polar vortex split evolution. The model now has a finger of PV from one of the sister vortices cyclonically wrapping around the other vortex in the lower stratosphere. Don't ask me what this means because I haven't a clue...

DvrbGaIWoAIxpyv.jpg
8:37 AM - 30 Dec 2018
 
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