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[Global] Stratospheric Discussion and Forecasting

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21 minutes ago, amugs said:

 

 

Does he mean "bull" as in good news or "bull as in bull crap?

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26 minutes ago, Oliviajames3 said:

Does he mean "bull" as in good news or "bull as in bull crap?

It means good news.

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30 minutes ago, Scotlandwx said:

So much going on ! Folks moan prediction is always chaos theory after day 7 - blah blah, more wizened have extra clues.

 

Images for posterity..

gfs_nh-vort3d_20190105_f000_rot180.png.39eb20333b8853502fa1af78f1f136d4.png

gfs_nh-vort3d_20190105_f240_rot000.png.2977710e58c0343ab0e04ae2cf9f809e.png

gfs_nh-vort3d_20190105_f360_rot180.png.7550f6f90ecfd598aac527c19e65a433.png

 

On the evolutionary scale ...

1564750828_05JanU7090.PNG.fa2cd094e9c607d50c39727022405246.PNG1988536012_05JanTempSEPlot.PNG.806057389235e452a72d6918850e337b.PNG

 

Trop Impacts inbound - just going to happen in slow motion on NWP...

 

 

That downwelling looks rather impressive. It goes on for at least 10 days. What's the average downwelling time lapse? 

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Does anyone know how long a PV split usually lasts? The GFS doesn't show the vortex coming back together until the very end of the run, ~ Jan 22nd. This would be nearly 3 weeks of a split vortex. 

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Very good sign here

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