[Global] Stratospheric Discussion and Forecasting - Page 33 - 33andrain Spotlight - 33andrain Jump to content
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[Global] Stratospheric Discussion and Forecasting

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5 minutes ago, CCB! said:

Per the LR... Be sure to drop into this thread.

 

 

@OceanSnow - You talking about the 2013-14 winter or 12-13?

 

@Blake, fyi, I moved your question to the appropriate thread with a CC to the original poster.

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the strat warming happened in Jan 2013 I believe. 13-14 didn't feature a SSW IIRC

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2 minutes ago, Superstorm93 said:

 Vort over NA becomes dominant on the ECMWF 

 

 

10ta_f240_bg.png

Super I'm assuming that means that's a good position

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3 minutes ago, Superstorm93 said:

Vort over NA becomes dominant on the ECMWF 

 

Euro has done well I believe with the SSWE progression, and even SPV split forecasted date, because of that I take confidence here that the Euro forecast materializes. 

 

Interesting,  I recall many times the dominant vort is over Siberia in past SSWEs.  I am not sure  here, but it appears based on the Euro's forecast that if things develop like that we bear the full impacts from this SSWE somewhere in the NA.  

 

Hopefully someone who is an expert in these events can lend some insights as to the implications based on the ECMWF 10 mb temp anomaly.  

 

 

 

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19 minutes ago, bird said:

Super I'm assuming that means that's a good position

 

Yes, that would be a great resting spot if we can eventually get the downwelling to aid in the development of high latitude blocking. Unfortunately, this has been the hardest aspect of the SSWE to pin down. 

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What event was the record for most significant downward propagation(just curious)?

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Here’s Dr. Cohen on the Joe and Joe show. I apologize in advance if it is a repeat post. 

 

 

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From the overseas crew showing the PV impact on the set up high above: That position of the PV is would you say "nice"

 

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1 hour ago, amugs said:

From the overseas crew showing the PV impact on the set up high above: That position of the PV is would you say "nice"

 

The  infamous Jan 1987 beast from the east to hit the UK which the Met Office recognises as the coldest seven day period of weather in the UK of the 20th century was not even centered around a split vortex or SSW. 

We did however have a SSW around 10 days later I think.

 

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1 hour ago, comet63 said:

The  infamous Jan 1987 beast from the east to hit the UK which the Met Office recognises as the coldest seven day period of weather in the UK of the 20th century was not even centered around a split vortex or SSW. 

We did however have a SSW around 10 days later I think.

 

WOW that is something thanks comet!

Exciting times ahead.

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15 hours ago, comet63 said:

The  infamous Jan 1987 beast from the east to hit the UK which the Met Office recognises as the coldest seven day period of weather in the UK of the 20th century was not even centered around a split vortex or SSW. 

We did however have a SSW around 10 days later I think.

Just my pennies worth but once you mentioned the infamous Jan 1987 beast from the east without mentioning the 1897 beast from the far-east, then admitted the mid-east did, in fact, have a bigger beast in 1914 I stopped reading any further.

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16 minutes ago, uofmiami said:

Not sure if anyone saw this on Twitter, read his replies to this one. Interesting read regarding N Atlantic v Siberia SSW:

 

 

Its a fascinating discussion. Brought to light by back to back ssw in a completely different background. Over time may lead to better strat/trop forecasts 

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