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Isotherm

Stratospheric Discussion and Forecasting

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This would be congruous with my w1 assault expectation in early December.
 
 
 
 
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From the winter thread...

 

"

We were just discussing the strat look in AccuWeather Forums and have a thread dedicated to stratosphere evolution. The euro at 240 looks like it favors the west with the intact pv it has. Have y'all thought about a stratosphere thread?"

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1 hour ago, 33andrain said:

The news just keeps getting better and better. :axe: 

Uh ?

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5 hours ago, Snowman11 said:

Uh ?

I didn’t see how the PV displacing to the other side of the planet helped us. Still don’t understand frankly. But Isotherm does and that’s all that matters. Lol.  

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Can see the PV displacement to the Eastern Hemisphere on both the GEFS and GEPS overnight.

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7 hours ago, Isotherm said:

 

This would be good news if it transpires as expected. Wave-1 convergence on the SPV will act to displace it somewhat off the pole, allowing geopotential heights to increase over the Arctic/NATL domains, and downwelling into the troposphere. 

This sounds like a recipe for a -AO/-NAO. Woohoo!

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I sense a disturbance in East and NE Asia...little too far South for my liking.

temp50anim.gif

temp10anim.gif.635fce5ca2611fc0ab04453ca02d63d7.gif

 

Going to need a robust warming event to disrupt this cold.

10hpa_18NOV18.PNG

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1 hour ago, Weathergun said:

Euro picking up on the wave 1 assault on the strat PV, in about 7-10 days

7ecmwf_z50a_nh_34.thumb.png.3f0ec94671b7dfbdc01622b617acdf7b.png

 

Please correct me if I'm wrong... But seeing the stratosphere buckle like this could lead to the h5 ridging shifting more poleward from the WPO domain in time. Would that be close to an accurate statement?

 

image.png

image.png

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1 hour ago, Weathergun said:

Euro picking up on the wave 1 assault on the strat PV, in about 7-10 days

7ecmwf_z50a_nh_34.thumb.png.3f0ec94671b7dfbdc01622b617acdf7b.png

Probably the reason why  we see a strong cold shot at the end of the holiday weekend 

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