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Stratospheric Discussion and Forecasting

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4 hours ago, Snowy Hibbo said:

I still think it will be a -10 or so reversal 60N 10hPa wise. Near split, but not a perfect split. Very stretched, over Eastern Europe, and Eastern Canada. Good for Eastern CONUS. I feel December is slowly becoming more messy. But those two weeks of Jan, still look special.

 

The less impressive EC Determ run below. As you can see the vortex is hiding from us, but still there. And no split of course.

IMG_5964.PNG

 

That looks like it should solicit a reversal in zonal winds.

IMG_5965.PNG

You got to look for the directions around the 60N line. TBH it really is bigger than the 60N line, but technically you should have your SSW.

How long does a major SSW?. I heard 3-4 weeks or so. 

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This is about a consistent of a signal as you will see for major, near record-breaking warmth at 10hPa from 60-90N. @Superstorm93 coming through with the graphics as per usual

 

 

T_10mb_6090N_2018-2019.png

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Think this might not have a huge effect on the pattern?

 

Think again

 

F82C3805-45D0-4E30-B827-4B3C1AE39A2A.png

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The Tidbits representation of the PV split into 3 pieces on the 6z GFS...

gfs_Tz10_nhem_32.png

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