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Isotherm

Stratospheric Discussion and Forecasting

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5 minutes ago, Superstorm93 said:

 

 

This sounds like it would be good for us downstream.

 

:yesplease2:

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4 hours ago, Isotherm said:

 

 

January 2013, which resulted in the dramatic reversal from furnace Dec/Jan to cold and relatively snowy Feb/Mar 2013 in the Northeast.

 

21m4v3r.gif

 

Late November 2014 made a good run at it too...

 

50mb_30NOV14.gif.b37a3f2f4f14f2a70ebdd3ad6e4546f3.gif

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4 hours ago, 33andrain said:

Fantasy Op run, but fun to look at.

 

gfs_Tz10_nhem_33.png

 

The idea of a split is gaining support from its ensembles now as we move up in time. Still great uncertainty, but good to see this.

index.gif

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4 hours ago, CCB! said:

 

The idea of a split is gaining support from its ensembles now as we move up in time. Still great uncertainty, but good to see this.

index.gif

 

That 3080dm is not what you think it is. In fact, all it does is focus the 2880dm pv over the Kara Sea.

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I’m looking at the 10mb warming on the GFS. PV is nice and weak now. That event may be what is needed to cause a split. Fairly certain this is what @Isotherm has been looking at. 

 

Amazingly, it’s not like we need the help to get the blocking this year. The strongly -QBO is so far proving to be sufficient. 

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5 minutes ago, PB GFI said:

Ventrice 

DPe6gCbWsAAig2j.jpg

 

That’ll do some damage.

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Yeah, that's the 10mb warming signature that's been popping up on the GFS long range and that @Isotherm has been discussing. The PV is done strengthening for a while and this warming event may very well split it.

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I'm thinking the GFS is too quick with displacing the stratospheric PV, but the ECMWF shows roughly the same thing happening by around D10. With both models also showing the MJO starting to swing into some of the more favorable tropical phases, this could certainly help bully an already disturbed SPV by the middle of the month or so. As always, this is something to keep an eye on as we get closer to the middle of December when the LR models start to show the pattern becoming more conducive for sustained cold. 

 

GFS 10 hPa D7.5

 

10_nh_stanom_31.png

 

ECMWF 10 hPa D10 

 

ecmwf10f240.gif

 

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