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Isotherm

Stratospheric Discussion and Forecasting

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2 minutes ago, earthlight said:

C28681D3-0242-46A2-9358-B9147A4EA857.png

 

Would love to add HM to this disco!

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The 18z GEFS/GFS still has a SSW to which the magnitude I've really never seen modeled before. Just goes all-out insane by vertically aligning the tropospheric ridges with the stratospheric ones. Completely dismantles the SPV by D15. The is obviously rushed, but its definitely interesting to see since we also have the ECMWF showing a bottom-up event as well by D10. 

 

 

3.png

gefs_z50a_c_nh_45.png

7.png

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38 minutes ago, Superstorm93 said:

The 18z GEFS/GFS still has a SSW to which the magnitude I've really never seen modeled before. Just goes all-out insane by vertically aligning the tropospheric ridges with the stratospheric ones. Completely dismantles the SPV by D15. The is obviously rushed, but its definitely interesting to see since we also have the ECMWF showing a bottom-up event as well by D10. 

 

 

3.png

gefs_z50a_c_nh_45.png

7.png

 

Great for Siberia and Europe. Meh for the eastern us.

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8 minutes ago, KOPNFMRADIOWX said:

 

Great for Siberia and Europe. Meh for the eastern us.

Inciteful. Pun intended. 

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11 minutes ago, KOPNFMRADIOWX said:

 

Great for Siberia and Europe. Meh for the eastern us.

Wow what a block

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Good stuff as always, @Isotherm. Question...can you break out the QBO strength and progression over those two optimal analog years as well? And maybe even in the some of the less optimal analog years just to see if there is any correlation which can be used? Unless I missed it. The QBO is expected to remain strongly negative this Winter, and I would think that would leave the PV in a weaker state right through February and susceptible to follow up attacks, maybe even in January.

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better view of the 18z GFS split. I, too, have not seen strat output like this on a model before.

 

gfs_Tz10_nhem_fh180-384 (1).gif

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7 minutes ago, Weathergun said:

 

The GEFS likely has a SSW by mid-December, given the zonal wind reversal shown. I can't tell how much the EPS is showing this in the LR. But the ECMWF op model has good PV displacement by day 10 too. The EPS climo-based MJO forecast shows phase 6/7, which is a predecessor to many SSW events.

ecmwf_z50a_nh_41.png

ECMF_phase_MANOM_51m_full.gif

 

I'm trying to remember what the lag was between mjo 6/7 and the SSW.

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The GEFS 50mb PV at the end of the run. It's still very disturbed and displaced.

 

50mbstratgefs18378.thumb.gif.caf59d0f1dbaed0ed98796cb005e8918.gif

 

The 18z GEFS PV at 10mb at the end of the run. It's also very disturbed and displaced.

 

gfs-ens_Tz10_nhem_33.thumb.png.76d7b43b478f4e1489d8eb3ba96fc2b8.png

 

But even more interesting is that the PV at 10mb is displaced into Western Europe, whereas at 50mb it's displaced into Eurasia. This means it's extremely unstable as it's lacking vertical stacking. It's not consolidated at all. 

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1 minute ago, Dsnowx53 said:

The GEFS 50mb PV at the end of the run. It's still very disturbed and displaced.

 

50mbstratgefs18378.thumb.gif.caf59d0f1dbaed0ed98796cb005e8918.gif

 

The 18z GEFS PV at 10mb at the end of the run. It's also very disturbed and displaced.

 

gfs-ens_Tz10_nhem_33.thumb.png.76d7b43b478f4e1489d8eb3ba96fc2b8.png

 

But even more interesting is that the PV at 10mb is displaced into Western Europe, whereas at 50mb it's displaced into Eurasia. This means it's extremely unstable as it's lacking vertical stacking. It's not consolidated at all. 

 

Doug, aside from higher than average volatility, what are the ground effects of the “uneven” stacking?  Does that mitigate the impact?

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