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Isotherm

Stratospheric Discussion and Forecasting

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7 minutes ago, NJwxguy78 said:

 

Doug, aside from higher than average volatility, what are the ground effects of the “uneven” stacking?  Does that mitigate the impact?

 

This is more than likely why HM tweeted "enjoy the Twitter chaos" when it came to the stratosphere.

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2 minutes ago, 33andrain said:

HM should post his thoughts here. 

 

He will shortly.

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1 hour ago, 33andrain said:

Good stuff as always, @Isotherm. Question...can you break out the QBO strength and progression over those two optimal analog years as well? And maybe even in the some of the less optimal analog years just to see if there is any correlation which can be used? Unless I missed it. The QBO is expected to remain strongly negative this Winter, and I would think that would leave the PV in a weaker state right through February and susceptible to follow up attacks, maybe even in January.

 

 

Thanks, no problem. Both of those analogs featured strongly negative QBO's throughout the winter / descending,  much like this one. All the other analogs except for 1998-99 and 1987-88 were solidly negative QBO. I'm confident the winter will be -AO in the means, but I think the variance will significantly increase as we transition into January w/ more unfavorable signalling especially on the Atlantic side. Regardless, we can debate that down the road. For now, this is the most propitious December pattern since 2010.

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12 minutes ago, Isotherm said:

 

 

Thanks, no problem. Both of those analogs featured strongly negative QBO's throughout the winter / descending,  much like this one. All the other analogs except for 1998-99 and 1987-88 were solidly negative QBO. I'm confident the winter will be -AO in the means, but I think the variance will significantly increase as we transition into January w/ more unfavorable signalling especially on the Atlantic side. Regardless, we can debate that down the road. For now, this is the most propitious December pattern since 2010.

 

10 minutes ago, Isotherm said:

 

 

Thanks John. Great post in your thread as well. I agree, this is following the early perturbation, -QBO/low flux play book quite well thus far. Very interesting and potentially exciting pattern unfolding.

 

Always learning over here... Thanks Tom.

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For the newcomers to this thread: The Stratosphere being disrupted can sometimes equate to better high latitude blocking in the troposphere, which can lead to increased cold/stormy chance in the eastern US... Not always, though without specifics, it can serve as a good long range indicator.

 

For the experts tagged below: In your individual opinions, would you say that the chances of a sudden stratospheric warming, or split event seems a bit more probable than usual, based on the pattern progression, model depictions, organic techniques, etc?

@Dsnowx53, @KOPNFMRADIOWX

@earthlight, @Superstorm93,@Isotherm,@Weathergun

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21 minutes ago, CCB! said:

For the newcomers to this thread: The Stratosphere being disrupted can sometimes equate to better high latitude blocking in the troposphere, which can lead to increased cold/stormy chance in the eastern US... Not always, though without specifics, it can serve as a good long range indicator.

 

For the experts tagged below: In your individual opinions, would you say that the chances of a sudden stratospheric warming, or split event seems a bit more probable than usual, based on the pattern progression, model depictions, organic techniques, etc?

@Dsnowx53, @KOPNFMRADIOWX

@earthlight, @Superstorm93,@Isotherm,@Weathergun

 

Yes

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3 minutes ago, earthlight said:

 

Yes

 

7530-2088-4ff3-bd27-e8b1b147e742

 

Thanks, John!

 

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9 hours ago, CCB! said:

For the newcomers to this thread: The Stratosphere being disrupted can sometimes equate to better high latitude blocking in the troposphere, which can lead to increased cold/stormy chance in the eastern US... Not always, though without specifics, it can serve as a good long range indicator.

 

For the experts tagged below: In your individual opinions, would you say that the chances of a sudden stratospheric warming, or split event seems a bit more probable than usual, based on the pattern progression, model depictions, organic techniques, etc?

@Dsnowx53, @KOPNFMRADIOWX

@earthlight, @Superstorm93,@Isotherm,@Weathergun

 

SSW is probable, the "freezing Arctic blast" for the Eastern CONUS based on SSW that some are banging their chest is subjective at this point. Especially since what we are seeing is focused in Siberia and Europe. IF that block over the pole meanders over to Northern Russia it could force the pv over Europe to the east coast. That being said, as noted earlier by dsnow, the stratosphere is lopsided so who knows if it will even stack.

 

No matter what, per the research shown, we are a long way away. 

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3 minutes ago, earthlight said:

 

Just curious, not being sarcastic, but who is banging their chest over a freezing arctic blast? Haven’t seen that on here at least.

 

It's already being alluded to on Twitter.

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1 hour ago, KOPNFMRADIOWX said:

 

It's already being alluded to on Twitter.

 

 

...and that’s why 33andrain was born. Need to reign  in the 200 character fake science.

 

so glad we have an army of mets here. 

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4 minutes ago, uncle w said:

when I was a kid a twit wasn't what you wanted to be called...the name twitter is lame to me...that's one place you won't see me...

This. I’m with @uncle w

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Ironically, we used twitter as the platform to decry twitter.

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