Awakening: Long Range Winter Thread -- Part 2

[ZCovey 120]

Well my viewers in El Paso today aren't as excited as they were yesterday. Dang building ridge in the Pac NW keeps the cutoff low OTS. No more moisture combined with the cold air for our region next week.

Well at least we had one day of fantasy fun. 

[Jack Sillin 6,117]

We're gonna need that jet to buckle a bit if we want anything to happen snow wise (north of the MA at least). Strong northerly jet from NWT to CO will help drive CAA on the back side of the trough, lowering heights and tilting it neutral/negative, but we're gonna need that jet to be strong enough to tilt and buckle the TX->NL jet if we want any NWward moisture transport. ECMWF says it happens by D10, we'll see! 

[CTsnowstorm628 99]

Just now, Jack Sillin said:

We're gonna need that jet to buckle a bit if we want anything to happen snow wise (north of the MA at least). Strong northerly jet from NWT to CO will help drive CAA on the back side of the trough, lowering heights and tilting it neutral/negative, but we're gonna need that jet to be strong enough to tilt and buckle the TX->NL jet if we want any NWward moisture transport. ECMWF says it happens by D10, we'll see! 

I agree! I just tweeted (follow me @EdValleeWx  ) that if anything, suppression may be a possibility.  However, that quasi-west-based NAO is mighty tasty IMO.

[Jack Sillin 6,117]

Just now, CTsnowstorm628 said:

I agree! I just tweeted (follow me @EdValleeWx  ) that if anything, suppression may be a possibility.  However, that quasi-west-based NAO is mighty tasty IMO.

Have followed ya for a while  big fan of your stuff! I like the fact that downstream "traffic" is developing in the Atlantic. That should help put up a bit of a wall to force a northwestward bend in the jet/storm track off/near the East Coast. 

[33andrain 65,023]

@Snowy Hibbo promoted to Senior Wx Expert. Congrats! Terrific posts over the past couple of days. An entrance to 33andrain reminiscent of that of the great @brooklynwx99 last Winter. Glad you've joined us for the ride of a lifetime; the Winter of 2017-18!  

[Superstorm93 24,592]

42 minutes ago, CCB! said:

 

I believe that it could trigger/enhance the already modeled Rossby Wave Train, which could enhance high latitude blocking & deepen the trough in the eastern US.

 

Exactly 

 

HM just replied to me on that front 

 

 

 

[Allsnow 41,941]

Fwiw EPS snow total at 12z. Shows you the potential in this pattern for December 

[Jack Sillin 6,117]

Just now, Allsnow said:

Fwiw EPS snow total at 12z. Shows you the potential in this pattern for December 

and as a bonus, 12/14 is just the opening of one of the big storm windows pinpointed by @KOPNFMRADIOWX's organic forecasting methods (posted the Hovmoller analysis a couple days ago showing signal crossings around then)

[NJwxguy78 26,372]

41 minutes ago, earthlight said:

 

One of the more impressive things about the long range guidance has consistently been the poleward reach of that ridging. The stratosphere/troposphere coupling in that part of the globe suggests a higher than normal probability of significant disruption of the arctic height fields. When you build such an enormous ridge into that region, you cause really big problems with arctic circulations.

 

In addition to cold air being dislodged south, you’re now running the table on potential for polar disturbances to shoot straight down the east side of that ridge into the USA. With ridging and higher heights poking into Greenland, you’re increasing the likelihood that deep, well sourced low level cold air will be present. As the ridge builds poleward in the Pacific, the southerly jet should have room to amplify.

 

I think you know where i’m heading here - but the overall idea is that the ceiling is quite high. Furthermore, these patterns just love to produce something. You begin a feedback process, really. Just a matter of time.

 

When, not if. !

[CCB! 35,172]

General post since we're obviously all very enthused in here today, and for good reason There's a lot of moving parts here. For the NE/MA posters, in order to get a coastal storm to track into the "Goldilocks" 40/70 benchmark area, numerous pieces of the puzzle need to fall into place, and we're a long ways out. The good news is that the pattern change is real, and the pacific jet is going to buckle which will disrupt that warm, zonal flow. That takes care of the big step one.

 

As noted by several posters over the last few weeks, the Pacific continues to be key here. The consistent quality trends & guidance agreement on the PNA/EPO ridge is very encouraging. On the Atlantic side where there's a bit more uncertainty, if you get a strong -NAO, you could get a robust storm that'll be slowed down & take its time bombing out... Or, it could act as a suppression mechanism, depending on the 250mb & h5 evolution. On the flipside, if we see a retreating -NAO/quasi-Archambault event, it could allow the storm to ride up the coast a bit more, but the storm would ostensibly be quicker. But it would still put the NE corridor in contention for a significant or even major storm.

 

Or perhaps the vorts don't deliver & we stay cold & dry... We don't know yet.

 

But the bottom line is that the ensemble agreement on the pattern shift, and the consistent depiction of the improved Pacific changes will put us into a favorable setup for at least one winter storm as we enter the second week of December. While seeing a run like the 12z ECMWF is awesome, let's not get too excited, or disheartened for that matter if we see one feature like the NAO, European trough etc waver on the future model suites... Until we're approaching the medium range, we won't even know for sure if those specifics will be good or bad, per say.

 

Buckle up & enjoy the ride!

[Jack Sillin 6,117]

[Jack Sillin 6,117]

If you're looking for support for the WPAC TCG idea... the EPS has it. Fun to imagine what would happen with constructive interference caused by this system  

[Superstorm93 24,592]

10 minutes ago, Jack Sillin said:

If you're looking for support for the WPAC TCG idea... the EPS has it. Fun to imagine what would happen with constructive interference caused by this system  

 

 

 

 

[Jack Sillin 6,117]

It's coming! ECMWF 12/4 simulated IR https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/grid-americas/sat-ir-bright-temperature-1079mu/20171204-1200z.html shows downstream blocking in the Atlantic, Bering Sea activity continuing, very large cold pool developing in NW Canada, and blocking high pressure developing over the WC/EPAC fueled by latent heat from tropical convection east of Hawaii. Still zonal across the CONUS at that point, but not for long  

[earthlight 25,424]

2 hours ago, CCB! said:

General post since we're obviously all very enthused in here today, and for good reason There's a lot of moving parts here. For the NE/MA posters, in order to get a coastal storm to track into the "Goldilocks" 40/70 benchmark area, numerous pieces of the puzzle need to fall into place, and we're a long ways out. The good news is that the pattern change is real, and the pacific jet is going to buckle which will disrupt that warm, zonal flow. That takes care of the big step one.

 

As noted by several posters over the last few weeks, the Pacific continues to be key here. The consistent quality trends & guidance agreement on the PNA/EPO ridge is very encouraging. On the Atlantic side where there's a bit more uncertainty, if you get a strong -NAO, you could get a robust storm that'll be slowed down & take its time bombing out... Or, it could act as a suppression mechanism, depending on the 250mb & h5 evolution. On the flipside, if we see a retreating -NAO/quasi-Archambault event, it could allow the storm to ride up the coast a bit more, but the storm would ostensibly be quicker. But it would still put the NE corridor in contention for a significant or even major storm.

 

Or perhaps the vorts don't deliver & we stay cold & dry... We don't know yet.

 

But the bottom line is that the ensemble agreement on the pattern shift, and the consistent depiction of the improved Pacific changes will put us into a favorable setup for at least one winter storm as we enter the second week of December. While seeing a run like the 12z ECMWF is awesome, let's not get too excited, or disheartened for that matter if we see one feature like the NAO, European trough etc waver on the future model suites... Until we're approaching the medium range, we won't even know for sure if those specifics will be good or bad, per say.

 

Buckle up & enjoy the ride!

 

Nice summary. We are in a good spot right now - it’s easy at this time to start over analyzing things. So we should all have the perspective you do, this is going to require some patience and will also likely feature a few false alarms along the way. But it will be fun for sure!

[amugs 3,575]

Boyz,

Some here may have heard or know of a long term forecaster and met named Jim Witt. He will presenting his slides he did back in early Oct of this upcoming winters prediction. He has about an 82% success rate over the couple of decades he has forecasted LR. 

Dec 13th he will be presenting at the NJWO if anyone is interested in seeing.

His 2 big call's for east coast snow storms +/-2 days.

12/ 22 -23

2-2/3

Just some food for thought.

He uses terrestrial alignments, perigees, orbital paths, proximity and is big on the sun and moon.

 

[earthlight 25,424]

2 minutes ago, amugs said:

Boyz,

Some here may have heard or know of a long term forecaster and met named Jim Witt. He will presenting his slides he did back in early Oct of this upcoming winters prediction. He has about an 82% success rate over the couple of decades he has forecasted LR. 

Dec 13th he will be presenting at the NJWO if anyone is interested in seeing.

His 2 big call's for east coast snow storms +/-2 days.

12/ 22 -23

2-2/3

Just some food for thought.

He uses terrestrial alignments, perigees, orbital paths, proximity and is big on the sun and moon.

 

 

Moon is too cold for snow on those dates. Not gonna work.

 

 

Kidding. Interested to see what he comes out with.

[amugs 3,575]

Just now, earthlight said:

 

Moon is too cold for snow on those dates. Not gonna work.

 

 

Kidding. Interested to see what he comes out with.

Ahh Johnny makin a funny here. 

I will take notes and report back cappy

[earthlight 25,424]

1 minute ago, amugs said:

Ahh Johnny makin a funny here. 

I will take notes and report back cappy

 

Glad you’re here man. Look forward to the notes! 

[Chris L 2,054]

@earthlight  what would be your top analogs going for December?  Based on the blocking signatures, it looks like December 2009, IMHO.