Jump to content

Awakening: Long Range Winter Thread -- Part 2


Recommended Posts

  • Replies 3.1k
  • Created
  • Last Reply

Top Posters In This Topic

Top Posters In This Topic

Popular Posts

Good evening.    There is something special about this time of year, isn't there? More and more folks are coming out of their summer weather-tracking slumber, it seems, heading to their comp

33andrain has reached 400 members. Wow.

Thank you for the welcomes! I don't mean to steer the thread off topic, but I do appreciate it!

Posted Images

Pattern isn't established enough during this time frame to increase our odds of getting something. Anything during this range would be a significant bonus. The Atlantic flow is fast and the Pacific patttern is just becoming established. Window for something of value is still 14 days away. 

Link to post
Share on other sites
3 minutes ago, earthlight said:

Pattern isn't established enough during this time frame to increase our odds of getting something. Anything during this range would be a significant bonus. The Atlantic flow is fast and the Pacific patttern is just becoming established. Window for something of value is still 14 days away. 

 

Still exciting just to watch the transition!

Link to post
Share on other sites
2 minutes ago, earthlight said:

Pattern isn't established enough during this time frame to increase our odds of getting something. Anything during this range would be a significant bonus. The Atlantic flow is fast and the Pacific patttern is just becoming established. Window for something of value is still 14 days away. 

 

Slow the SW down by 6 hours in the TENN Valley , let the N branch dig into it , tug on it and tilt it and that ends up on the Arctic front closer to the coast IMO. 

 

And you have the GFS .

 

 

 

ecmwf_z500_vort_conus2_27   NOV 30 500 VORT.png

 

Link to post
Share on other sites

Like John says, a tad too early; but the potential is there for a sneaky surprise.

After that though, Dec 15-25, we should get SOMETHING major; or base on the trends so far.

 

 

Link to post
Share on other sites
10 minutes ago, 33andrain said:

Meh. I don't necessarily agree that anything we get is a sneaky surprise. A pattern which, even in transition, offers up multiple opportunities for accumulating snow deserves a bit more respect.

 

Just compare it to one year ago.

 

wow

Link to post
Share on other sites
4 minutes ago, snow_cohen said:

Looks like an interesting pattern.  But the most favorable time for an East Coast snowstorm is when the AO/NAO transitions form negative to positive.

 

Welcome Dr. Cohen!

Link to post
Share on other sites
3 minutes ago, snow_cohen said:

Looks like an interesting pattern.  But the most favorable time for an East Coast snowstorm is when the AO/NAO transitions form negative to positive.

We love Archambault events over here :) - Looking forward to a cold December. However it plays out exactly, it should feature a lot of excitement in the met world with at least a few threats to track.

Link to post
Share on other sites
3 minutes ago, joe cioffi said:

Models have been hinting at wave action the last few days. GFS picked up on it today. Euro more fractured but the idea is not impossible.

 

http://www.meteorologistjoecioffi.com/index.php/2017/11/30/winter-pattern-change-becomes-complicated/ 

 

Agreed, Joe! Thanks for dropping in today.

1 hour ago, CCB! said:

Guidance is starting to at least gather a general idea of when the shortwaves will drop down the EPO/PNA ridge into the trough. The specifics will continue to iron out as we move up in time. GREAT h5 look so far today though.

index.gif

Link to post
Share on other sites
12 minutes ago, snow_cohen said:

Looks like an interesting pattern.  But the most favorable time for an East Coast snowstorm is when the AO/NAO transitions form negative to positive.

Welcome @snow_cohen! Thank you for posting at 33

11 minutes ago, joe cioffi said:

Models have been hinting at wave action the last few days. GFS picked up on it today. Euro more fractured but the idea is not impossible.

 

http://www.meteorologistjoecioffi.com/index.php/2017/11/30/winter-pattern-change-becomes-complicated/ 

Great to see you posting @joe cioffi

Link to post
Share on other sites
14 minutes ago, snow_cohen said:

Looks like an interesting pattern.  But the most favorable time for an East Coast snowstorm is when the AO/NAO transitions form negative to positive.

 

Couldnt agree more. Patience will be the name of the game here, most likely.

Link to post
Share on other sites
  • Allsnow unpinned this topic
  • Allsnow locked and unfeatured this topic
Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.
×
×
  • Create New...