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Awakening: Long Range Winter Thread -- Part 2

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14 minutes ago, snow_cohen said:

Looks like an interesting pattern.  But the most favorable time for an East Coast snowstorm is when the AO/NAO transitions form negative to positive.



This tweet from from earlier today....the foreboding tone!




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Good evening.    There is something special about this time of year, isn't there? More and more folks are coming out of their summer weather-tracking slumber, it seems, heading to their comp

33andrain has reached 400 members. Wow.

Thank you for the welcomes! I don't mean to steer the thread off topic, but I do appreciate it!

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Gotta duck out for a bit... Here's the 12z EPS h5 setup from day one to day ten. Brief glance shows some increased NA ridging into the long range as the cutter occludes, PAC ridge axis similar to OP progression in being a bit east of GEFS/GEPS. That was a one minute analysis, lol, so please feel free to dig in & correct.


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6 hours ago, earthlight said:

330k PVU can often give us a very good look into how the pattern progression is affecting circulations around the hemisphere. When we look at the development of the poleward-building ridge in the Pacific Ocean via this medium, it isn't very difficult to comprehend exactly how enormous its effects are. This isn't just a red ridge on a forecast model. It's sensible weather effects on air flow and the arctic circulations will be enormous. 


I tried uploading the file here but the system uploader is giving me trouble. So here's a link to my tweet about it where you can view the animated GIF.





and from 10 days AGO ...
Ridge in Bearing Sea; deeeep trough at 160W


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3 minutes ago, Thundersnow12 said:

Pattern tries to relax a tad just beyond day 10 and then just reloads again towards the end of the EPS. Unreal staying power and signal at two weeks out. Pretty incredible. 

Welcome to 33andrain!

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16 minutes ago, Isotherm said:




I noticed on today's teleconnection plots for the EPS, the error bars are atypically large, spanning 9 standard deviations by the D13-15 period, indicative of ensemble members varying from a strongly positive to strongly negative AO. This means the end result will probably look disparate than current proggs with either more or less blocking. However, I agree with @snow_cohen on the upcoming pattern generally being auspicious for vertical wave driving, preferentially wave-1, early-mid period with an increase in wave-2 later in the period. So there will be continued energy converging on the SPV and keeping the PNJ weaker than normal through D15-20 at least.



You are always going to expand volatility over time so having members in the L/R oppose each other is common. The probability in that region in my mind lay closer to the positive height ideas as we get closer as the lesser / lower pressure members get washed out.


I look at the EP and how incredibly strong that NEG S of the Aleutians looks on all the guidance.


It gives me some insight into how strong the push poleward the height field on the west coast should be and what that would look at the higher latitudes. 

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The best way to eliminate volatility in models in terms of the overall pattern is to consider what is driving the pattern now and what would have to change in order to have a pattern change in any situation.  Once you understand the trigger in the pattern evolution you can separate between the BS solutions and the higher potential ones.  As a result, you can further reduce the volatility overall.


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28 minutes ago, NJwxguy78 said:

It’s very very difficult to ignore this.







Believe me when I tell you that I’d be hollering to get excited if it was worth it with this one. My best idea says that it’s not. 

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