NY NJ PA Weather 55 Posted December 1, 2017 Share Posted December 1, 2017 There is no way the EPS or any guidance beyond 3 or 4 days have a good handle on all the Vorticities at 500 MB that will trigger a winter storm or two. Just get me the pattern I am seeing and roll the dice. No need to pine over GFS/ECMWF beyond 120 at this point IMO. Link to post Share on other sites
PB GFI 42,857 Posted December 1, 2017 Share Posted December 1, 2017 Bias correction. MJO / WEEKLIES / CRUDFS ALL LOOK GOOD HERE THRU NEW YEARS. Link to post Share on other sites
Qtown Snow 7,672 Posted December 1, 2017 Share Posted December 1, 2017 looking at the animation posted by @PB GFI and @33andrain is this a slight relaxation / reload period as depicted? Could be a time frame to watch for white, of course this was just one run and weenie range Link to post Share on other sites
uncle w 4,214 Posted December 1, 2017 Share Posted December 1, 2017 11 minutes ago, 33andrain said: You always come through with the right stat at the right time. Cheers. the Decembers of 1960, 1961, 1962, 1963 and 1966 had snow on the ground Christmas day and had less total precipitation than normal...2000 had less precipitation also... Link to post Share on other sites
NJwxguy78 26,372 Posted December 1, 2017 Share Posted December 1, 2017 2 minutes ago, QTown Snow said: looking at the animation posted by @PB GFI and @33andrain is this a slight relaxation / reload period as depicted? Could be a time frame to watch for white, of course this was just one run and weenie range Precisely the period to watch for a big one! Where’s @Chris L Link to post Share on other sites
NJwxguy78 26,372 Posted December 1, 2017 Share Posted December 1, 2017 Welcome @clags! Link to post Share on other sites
Weatherman89 970 Posted December 1, 2017 Share Posted December 1, 2017 Welcome @clags ! This is Ari Link to post Share on other sites
clags 73 Posted December 1, 2017 Share Posted December 1, 2017 Thank you! Great to be here! I’m impressed! Link to post Share on other sites
Qtown Snow 7,672 Posted December 1, 2017 Share Posted December 1, 2017 gfs 12z the arrival of winter Link to post Share on other sites
Superstorm93 24,592 Posted December 1, 2017 Share Posted December 1, 2017 Always like to see the PNA ridge correcting more poleward... More stout NAO doesn't hurt as well. Link to post Share on other sites
CCB! 35,172 Posted December 1, 2017 Share Posted December 1, 2017 1 minute ago, Superstorm93 said: Always like to see the PNA ridge correcting more poleward... More stout NAO doesn't hurt as well. Noticed that too. Especially as we move into the 4-5 day range where verification scores tend to increase. Link to post Share on other sites
Superstorm93 24,592 Posted December 1, 2017 Share Posted December 1, 2017 AO, PNA, and the NAO are trying to link up in the medium range. Link to post Share on other sites
Qtown Snow 7,672 Posted December 1, 2017 Share Posted December 1, 2017 nice energy here Link to post Share on other sites
CCB! 35,172 Posted December 1, 2017 Share Posted December 1, 2017 Only because I know there are interested parties... Baroclinic zone will be too far to the east post cyclogenesis for the 12/7-12/8 event on the 12z GFS. But as noted above, quality trends. Never a bad thing seeing a ridge traverse the entire northern hemisphere. 12/7-12/8: Link to post Share on other sites
33andrain 65,023 Posted December 1, 2017 Share Posted December 1, 2017 2 minutes ago, QTown Snow said: nice energy here It's okay to see I guess. For us to get snow from it, it would need to dig further south so any close off at h5 would occur to our south. This is for NYC, btw. As depicted, not a realistic threat south of there. Link to post Share on other sites
CTsnowstorm628 99 Posted December 1, 2017 Share Posted December 1, 2017 One thing on my mind in this pattern is suppression. This is an incredibly delicate pattern in the NE, IMO, with a lot of moving parts. Cold is pretty much a lock I think, but these snow chances on OP data will be all over the place. If I were in the NE, I would feel pretty good about the pattern going forward though Link to post Share on other sites
33andrain 65,023 Posted December 1, 2017 Share Posted December 1, 2017 To be perfectly honest, I haven't been crazy about any of these individual waves of energy dropping down on the models over the past couple of days. At least in the immediate LR. As we get out to the 15th and beyond, I think we're in better shape. Before then, too much energy yielding not enough room for trough amplification. Wave spacing not ideal IMO. Link to post Share on other sites
Qtown Snow 7,672 Posted December 1, 2017 Share Posted December 1, 2017 1 minute ago, 33andrain said: It's okay to see I guess. For us to get snow from it, it would need to dig further south so any close off at h5 would occur to our south. This is for NYC, btw. As depicted, not a realistic threat south of there. i'll take flurries and snow showers at this point Link to post Share on other sites
CCB! 35,172 Posted December 1, 2017 Share Posted December 1, 2017 14 minutes ago, CTsnowstorm628 said: One thing on my mind in this pattern is suppression. This is an incredibly delicate pattern in the NE, IMO, with a lot of moving parts. Cold is pretty much a lock I think, but these snow chances on OP data will be all over the place. If I were in the NE, I would feel pretty good about the pattern going forward though I agree. That's the primary concern. Just a sample of that for the first wave. But I still feel great about the pattern & its chances to deliver. Link to post Share on other sites
Qtown Snow 7,672 Posted December 1, 2017 Share Posted December 1, 2017 yesterday's 12z weenie gfs almost exploded the forum, today we just have the winter trough chill as most expected anyway till "mid month" Link to post Share on other sites
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