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Awakening: Long Range Winter Thread -- Part 2


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There is no way the EPS or any guidance beyond 3 or 4 days have a good handle on all the Vorticities at 500 MB that will trigger a winter storm or two.  Just get me the pattern I am seeing and roll the dice.  No need to pine over GFS/ECMWF beyond 120 at this point IMO.

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Good evening.    There is something special about this time of year, isn't there? More and more folks are coming out of their summer weather-tracking slumber, it seems, heading to their comp

33andrain has reached 400 members. Wow.

Thank you for the welcomes! I don't mean to steer the thread off topic, but I do appreciate it!

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11 minutes ago, 33andrain said:

You always come through with the right stat at the right time. Cheers.

the Decembers of 1960, 1961, 1962, 1963 and 1966 had snow on the ground Christmas day and had less total precipitation than normal...2000 had less precipitation also...

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2 minutes ago, QTown Snow said:

looking at the animation posted by @PB GFI and @33andrain

is this a slight relaxation / reload period as depicted? Could be a time frame to watch for white, of course this was just one run and weenie range

 

gfs_T850a_us_51.png

 

Precisely the period to watch for a big one!  Where’s @Chris L

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1 minute ago, Superstorm93 said:

Always like to see the PNA ridge correcting more poleward...

 

More stout NAO doesn't hurt as well.

 

gfs_z500a_namer_fh132_trend.gif

 

Noticed that too. Especially as we move into the 4-5 day range where verification scores tend to increase.

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Only because I know there are interested parties... Baroclinic zone will be too far to the east post cyclogenesis for the 12/7-12/8 event on the 12z GFS. But as noted above, quality trends. Never a bad thing seeing a ridge traverse the entire northern hemisphere.

 

image.png

 

12/7-12/8:

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2 minutes ago, QTown Snow said:

nice energy here 

2017-12-01 11_20_20-500 Mb Hgt, Vort North America 12z GFS.png

It's okay to see I guess. For us to get snow from it, it would need to dig further south so any close off at h5 would occur to our south. This is for NYC, btw. As depicted, not a realistic threat south of there.

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One thing on my mind in this pattern is suppression. This is an incredibly delicate pattern in the NE, IMO, with a lot of moving parts. Cold is pretty much a lock I think, but these snow chances on OP data will be all over the place. If I were in the NE, I would feel pretty good about the pattern going forward though ;)

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To be perfectly honest, I haven't been crazy about any of these individual waves of energy dropping down on the models over the past couple of days. At least in the immediate LR. As we get out to the 15th and beyond, I think we're in better shape. Before then, too much energy yielding not enough room for trough amplification. Wave spacing not ideal IMO.

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1 minute ago, 33andrain said:

It's okay to see I guess. For us to get snow from it, it would need to dig further south so any close off at h5 would occur to our south. This is for NYC, btw. As depicted, not a realistic threat south of there.

i'll take flurries and snow showers at this point ;)

 

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14 minutes ago, CTsnowstorm628 said:

One thing on my mind in this pattern is suppression. This is an incredibly delicate pattern in the NE, IMO, with a lot of moving parts. Cold is pretty much a lock I think, but these snow chances on OP data will be all over the place. If I were in the NE, I would feel pretty good about the pattern going forward though ;)

I agree. That's the primary concern. Just a sample of that for the first wave. But I still feel great about the pattern & its chances to deliver.

 

image.png

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